Impact Analysis: Atlanta Braves bullpen situation

June 10, 2008 @ 08:10:24

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Herija C. Green

It has become a widely accepted maxim of fantasy baseball that the closer position is too volatile to risk spending high draft picks or big auction bids on those who make up the upper tier of save specialists. Whether or not you agree with the strategy, the present bullpen situation of the Atlanta Braves illustrates perfectly why many experts have concluded that it is a sound one.

Bullpen musical chairs

Coming out of spring training the Braves hoped that closer Rafael Soriano would hold down ninth-inning duties for the duration of the season, but after earning his first save April 6 against the New York Mets, the 28-year-old right-hander went to the DL for 45 days with right elbow tendinitis. Thus began the Braves' closer carousel.

Relief pitcher Peter Moylan (elbow) was expected to assume the role of closer in Soriano's absence, but a bone spur in his elbow necessitated season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Reliever Manny Acosta became the de facto closer after Moylan went down, but inconsistency has made him an undesirable option looking forward. In 31 relief appearances, Acosta has posted an unimpressive 3-4 record with a 4.35 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP and a sub-par 22-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio even as he as earned three saves in five opportunities.

Future Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz (shoulder) was then slated to close upon his return from the DL in late May, but his need for season-ending surgery ended those plans after one relief appearance.

Braves manager Bobby Cox has also given middle relievers Will Ohman and Blaine Boyer some save opportunities, but, while both pitchers have been solid out of the bullpen, neither has shown a great aptitude for the special skills that it takes to close.

Situation report

Soriano came off the DL May 29 and has since tallied two saves in three opportunities. Despite his return to closing, an incident occurred last Friday, June 6, that could add more drama to the Braves bullpen situation. After warming up for what should have been another save opportunity against the Philadelphia Phillies, Soriano told coaches that he was experiencing some soreness in his right elbow and would not be able to pitch. The end result was a blown save for Boyer and a 10th inning loss by Acosta.

Team officials have not been forthcoming regarding the nature of Soriano's latest setback other than to classify it as an ongoing battle with tendinitis. It remains unknown what his status will be going forward. Speculation has centered on the theory that he might have been fatigued from pitching four of the previous six days prior to June 6. However, given Soriano's reputation for being injury-prone, nothing can be ruled out at this point.

The good news is that reinforcements could be on the horizon for the embattled Braves. Reliever and former closer Mike Gonzalez (elbow), attempting to return from Tommy John surgery conducted last season, stopped by Atlanta June 6 for a bullpen session while on his way to Triple-A Richmond to continue his rehabilitation. In spite of the quality of the session, Cox told reporters that no timetable exists for Gonzalez's return, but both he and Gonzalez expressed optimism that it could be sometime by mid-June.

In the meantime, Soriano remains the team's closer and his status should be considered day-to-day. With the June 6 incident coming after a week of relatively heavy work, look for the team to avoid using Soriano with such frequency going forward. Save chances could present themselves for the other members of the Braves bullpen, but they will likely not come with much consistency for any one individual.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Hopefully you were not one of the fantasy owners who used a high draft pick on the volatile and injury-prone Soriano. That being said, his talent level justifies his inclusion on most fantasy staffs, as proven by his 2.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Just know that he could go down at any time and that he is almost certain to share save opportunities with other members of the Braves bullpen even if he stays healthy.

The member of the Braves bullpen with the most fantasy value after Soriano should be Gonzalez. Assuming his rehab continues to go well, he could find himself as the closer-in-waiting in Atlanta. As such, Soriano owners are advised to handcuff Gonzalez's services if they have the roster space to do so. Don't look for him to duplicate the numbers of Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon (especially since he is coming off Tommy John surgery after only 12 months), but he could be a serviceable option in the event of Soriano's downfall.

Upon Gonzalez's return, Acosta will probably fall to third in the Braves' closer succession, relegating him to usefulness in only deep NL-only leagues. His inconsistency as a closer will probably make him a last-ditch option for the team, but considering that Soriano remains an injury risk and Gonzalez is still in recovery from major surgery, the possibility does exist that Acosta could find himself closing again sometime this year.

Ohman and Boyer are the least likely options to pick up large numbers of saves for the rest of 2008. For now, they are only viable in leagues that reward holds and even that is questionable. Cox has not shown a willingness to use either pitcher consistently as a set-up man, though both will probably continue to rack up a lot of relief appearances.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/25)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)