Impact Analysis: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

June 3, 2008 @ 14:23:43

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Richard Garcia

No one ever said it was easy on rookies in baseball. In just the second start of his career, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher and 20-year-old phenom Clayton Kershaw was roughed up May 30 by the New York Mets for four runs in only 3 2/3 innings. This outing comes on the heels of a May 25 debut in which he struck out seven batters while giving up only two earned runs and one walk in six innings of work.

In the aftermath of Kershaw's bumpy second effort, Dodgers manager Joe Torre discussed methods that the team might use to limit the innings of their young hurler. The organization has already made public their intention to limit Kershaw to 25 innings pitched per month in order to keep him fresh for August, September and beyond. Torre has also mentioned a scenario in which the youngster could split time as the fifth starter with pitcher Jason Schmidt (shoulder) when he returns from the disabled list.

On the DL since last June with a variety of shoulder issues that required arthroscopic surgery, Schmidt, whose 30-day minor league rehab assignment was scheduled to end June 10, will now have that extended after he was hit on the leg with a batted ball in his last start Saturday, May 31. With Schmidt's return uncertain and Kershaw's innings limited, the team could likely incorporate pitcher Hong-Chih Kuo back into that role for the time being. However, with Schmidt's stamina in question, a situation in which he and Kershaw split time as starters could prove advantageous to both pitchers when Schmidt returns.

Anatomy of a pitching prodigy

Few are as well-acquainted with the quality of a pitcher's arsenal as the guy who has to catch it every game. After Kershaw's May 25 debut, Dodgers catcher Russell Martin (already familiar with Kershaw from spring training) succinctly described him as a "left-hander who throws 96 with a snapdragon curveball and a nasty changeup." That assessment, while useful, fails to fully capture the potential in Kershaw's game.

Selected seventh overall by the Dodgers in the 2006 draft, Kershaw's rise through the team's organization has been achieved with impressive rapidity. From his 2006 stint in rookie ball to his major league call-up this season from Double-A Jacksonville, Kershaw managed to pitch just 202 1/3 innings as a minor leaguer. His domination at every level is attested to by his 264 strikeouts in that span; he also compiled a 2.63 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP and allowed opponents to bat only .205.

Table: Kershaw's minor league statistics (2006-08)

Year	Team	W-L	ERA	WHIP	BB	SO
2006	Rookie GCL Dodgers	2-0	1.95	0.89	5	54
2007	Single-A Great Lakes	7-5	2.77	1.25	50	134
2007	Double-A Jacksonville	1-2	3.65	1.38	17	29
2008	Double-A Jacksonville	0-3	2.28	1.08	15	47

After Kershaw mowed down 19 batters in 14 innings this spring training, the only question surrounding the young lefty was when he would get his major league audition. Possessing sound mechanics that are almost universally praised, a large 6-foot-3, 220-pound frame that could be a model for power pitchers and an attitude that embraces hard work, Kershaw looks to have all the tools needed for success at the major league level.

Underbelly of the newcomer

Kershaw will not be old enough to buy beer until 2009. Young pitchers have a tendency to be inconsistent; some are injury prone because of poor mechanics and other bad habits; the sum of that equation is that expectations of Kershaw this season should be muted.

For a cautionary tale, look no further than the similar circumstances surrounding the emergence of Seattle Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez. He debuted with much fanfare at the age of 19 in 2005 and flashed signs of brilliance without demonstrating a consistent ability to succeed. His success didn't come in the wins department (four) thanks to a subpar offense, but he picked up 77 strikeouts in 84 1/3 innings and posted a 2.67 ERA.

Despite the assurances of Martin regarding the quality of Kershaw's changeup, the reality is that the pitch is a relatively new addition to his repertoire. He has shown great progress in improving the pitch, but most scouts agree that it is not there yet.

Another issue for Kershaw in the near future has to do with his command. His minor league numbers indicate occasional problems with keeping the ball in the strike zone, and his five walks in 9 2/3 major league innings do little to alleviate the concern. Kershaw also admitted in spring training that pitching out of the stretch affected his command, and we have to wonder if his relative inexperience could cost him.

Fantasy outlook

Kershaw has immense upside, but his fantasy impact is likely to be somewhat limited this season. Given the strict limit on his innings imposed by the team on their young star and the possibility that Kershaw could share the fifth spot in the rotation, it is probably best to restrain your enthusiasm for his potential in the fantasy department. His youth and inexperience could also conspire to limit his value. If Kershaw is unable to keep the ball in the strike zone and if major league hitters are able to take advantage of his inexperience, he could find himself headed back down to the minors.

Despite the concerns, Kershaw is still worth a pickup in all fantasy leagues because of his potential. Of course, unless you've picked him up already, it is probably too late to get in on the ground floor of this potential juggernaut. Those who have him probably want to see what they have their hands on, and those who want him would probably have to overpay to get him.

Fantasy owners who control Kershaw's services might consider exploring trade options at this point to take advantage of the hype surrounding the youngster. If you are able to pick up a reliable starter in exchange for him, it would likely benefit your fantasy team in the long run. Those in need of pitching help should probably look elsewhere, as the buying price is likely to be prohibitively high.

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