Impact Analysis: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox

June 2, 2008 @ 11:30:41

By Michael Egnak
Edited by Herija C. Green

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder) was placed on the 15-day disabled list Friday, May 30, with a mild strain of the rotator cuff in his shoulder. He has started a shoulder strengthening program and is hoping to come off the list as soon as he's eligible. The team first characterized the injury as shoulder fatigue after he was forced to leave his start Tuesday, May 27, in the fifth inning.

Matsuzaka was off to a great start on the year, posting an 8-0 record with a 2.53 ERA in 11 starts. He had 55 strikeouts in 64 innings pitched and was allowing hitters to bat just .195 against him, but there were a couple concerns. For one, Matsuzaka has walked 38 batters already this season, and he wasn't improving in that area. He walked an average of 4.79 batters per nine innings over his first six starts of the year, but that rate had increased to 6.04 over his past five. His batting average against has also gone up from .171 in April to .229 in May, bumping up his WHIP from 1.09 in March and April combined to 1.50 in May.

Starter Justin Masterson is expected to be called on to replace Matsuzaka in the rotation, especially since the team just optioned starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (finger) to Triple-A Pawtucket Saturday, May 31. Masterson has been solid in his two spot starts with the club this year. He has gone at least six innings in both starts and allowed just one earned run in each. He has given up just five hits in 12 1/3 innings pitched, but he has walked seven batters while striking out nine. Sent down to Triple-A after his most recent stint with the Red Sox, Masterson allowed two runs, one earned, through six innings of work May 29.

Buchholz was immediately sent to Pawtucket after being activated off the disabled list. He has started two games in Triple-A, but he hasn't been very impressive with a 4.50 ERA in eight innings. He has allowed five hits and six walks while striking out eight batters. Buchholz was struggling in the majors this year, posting a 5.53 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in eight starts. In three of those starts he had allowed five earned runs or more, and he had gone longer than six innings in a start just once. With Buchholz's performance this year not up to par so far, it's more likely Masterson will get the call-up than Buchholz.

Red Sox rotation

Even though the Red Sox lose their team leader in ERA, they shouldn't be hurting too much in the rotation. Matsuzaka is hoping to come back after the minimum 15 days, making him eligible to return June 12 and on pace to miss just two starts. While he is out, here's what the team's rotation may look like:

•  Josh Beckett (5-4, 4.30 ERA)
•  Jon Lester (3-3, 3.67 ERA)
•  Bartolo Colon (3-0, 3.50 ERA)
•  Tim Wakefield (3-4, 4.70 ERA)
•  Justin Masterson (1-0, 1.46 ERA)

Masterson likely will find his way back to Triple-A once Matsuzaka returns, unless another injury strikes the team's rotation.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Owners who have Matsuzaka will want to make sure to stash him away since he should only be out for a couple starts. His ERA, wins and strikeouts make him a very useful pitcher in all leagues, and the time off could help improve his WHIP. Masterson is the likely option to earn a couple starts in place of Matsuzaka and is worth picking up for owners in all formats looking for a win and some strikeouts. Masterson likely will face the hot Tampa Bay Rays in his first start and the offensively challenged Seattle Mariners in his second.

A fantasy option to replace Matsuzaka could be Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kevin Slowey. Despite his 2-4 record, Slowey's ERA is a respectable 3.37 and his WHIP stands at 1.04. He is scheduled to face the Baltimore Orioles in his first start Tuesday, June 3, and the Chicago White Sox Sunday, June 8, making him a two-start pitcher in leagues that set their lineups on a weekly basis.

Toronto Blue Jays starter Jesse Litsch is another potential option. Litsch is 7-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He's on a hot streak of late, going his past two starts without allowing an earned run. He doesn't strike out many batters with just 37 in 65 innings pitched, but he has only walked nine this year.

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Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.

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