Impact Analysis: Chris Young, San Diego Padres

May 27, 2008 @ 15:19:23

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Herija C. Green

A disappointing season for the San Diego Padres got even worse this past week when catcher Josh Bard (ankle) and starting pitcher Chris Young (nose) had to be placed on the disabled list after they were injured in the same inning Wednesday, May 21. The battery mates were both knocked out of the game by St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. Bard was injured when Pujols slid into home plate, which occurred shortly after Pujols got on base by hitting a line drive that struck Young in the face.

Young was placed on the 15-day disabled list after the game, and his initial prognosis was good. However, as the swelling has gone down, more injuries have been realized and his two-week disabled list stint has now changed to "out indefinitely."

Young's injuries

Though no one ever wants to take a line drive to the face, Young is fortunate that his injuries were not more severe. In 2002, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Kazuhisa Ishii took a liner off the head, suffering a nasal fracture much like Young's. However, Ishii required immediate surgery and needed a titanium plate to fix the injury.

While Young did not need emergency surgery, his injuries are worse than initially thought. First diagnosed with a simple nasal fracture, other injuries have been discovered as the swelling has gone down. He has multiple fractures of his nasal bone, fractures of other facial bones, a small crack in his skull and a deviated septum. The one positive is that Young was not diagnosed with a concussion, which sometimes can have lasting effects like with third baseman Corey Koskie, who suffered a concussion that led to his retirement.

Still, the timeline for his return being extended means Young likely won't be coming off of the disabled list to help out your fantasy team anytime soon.

A down year for Young

Even before the injury, Young had been struggling this season as he tried to win games with a disappointing Padres team. Before Young's 2 1/3-inning performance he sat at 4-3 with a 4.18 ERA and a 49-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Young actually exited his final start with no runs allowed, one out and the bases loaded after the single by Pujols, so he hadn't been pitching terribly. However, his final line showed three earned runs because reliever Cla Meredith allowed all of his inherited runners to score. This negatively affected Young's stats, and he now sits at 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA on the season.

Troubles with lefties

Trying to figure out why Young has struggled thus far this season is simple when his righty-lefty splits are examined. Young, a right-handed pitcher, has dominated right-handed hitting both this season and throughout for his career. This season, he has a 1.11 WHIP and a .186 opponents' batting average with 36 of his 51 strikeouts coming against righties. Right-handed hitters are obviously not the primary cause of his struggles this season, as his numbers in '08 are better than his career numbers (1.12 WHIP, .211 opponents' batting average).

Lefties have troubled Young more than usual this season. In his career, Young has a 1.28 WHIP and a .233 opponents' batting average against left-handed hitters. This year, he has been far worse than those career numbers, with a 2.01 WHIP and .309 opponents' batting average. In addition, lefties have gone deep off of him six times already this season, whereas last year he only allowed six home runs to left-handed batters all year. It is apparent that Young needs to work on getting lefties out once he gets back from his injury if he wants to improve his overall numbers.

PETCO Park a safe haven

Young is fortunate enough to pitch in an extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark, in this case San Diego's PETCO Park. This shows in his home and road splits. Young has been All-Star worthy at home this season. In five home starts, he is 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA. Once you factor into that his 2 1/3-inning, three-run injury-shortened start is part of these numbers, Young was nearly unstoppable at home this season. However, Young can't pitch at home every start.

Though 2-2 in road starts this season, he sports a 6.58 ERA away from home and a 1.73 WHIP. Of his five road starts, only two have come at hitter-friendly ballparks (Arizona's Chase Field and Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park). Rather than pitching in hitter-friendly ballparks being his problem, it seems that Young just isn't as comfortable on the road as he is at PETCO, where he can be extremely dominant.

Fantasy baseball outlook

It remains to be determined how long Young's injury will hold him out. Young has come out and said he will be ready to pitch and that he will not be scared, worried, or otherwise hesitant on the mound. This is good news for fantasy owners, as Young most likely will not be pitching around hitters upon his return.

Last season, Young was among the best pitchers in baseball with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. A year later, it is difficult to imagine that Young has already lost whatever made him great last year. As extreme as his left/right and home/road splits have been this season, they were there last year too, just not as large. Young's success with those splits last season should give hope to owners currently frustrated with Young and his unfortunate injury.

While the injury and the poor stats may have given owners reasons to abandon ship and trade the 29-year-old pitcher, he is worth holding onto if you can afford to wait however long it is he is out. He is a good buy-low candidate for owners looking for pitching. Once he comes back, Young should be able to rack up the strikeouts (he was 12th in the National League last year) and hopefully improve upon his early ERA and WHIP numbers. This injury is not one that generally affects a pitcher's physical mechanics and performance.

His career stats have shown that he is a better pitcher than he has shown this season, and his home ballpark has shown that it has helped in keeping Young's stats down. As long as Young is pitching half of his games in PETCO Park, Young will be a quality pitcher that you can confidently trot out to the fantasy mound.

When he trots out to the mound next, however, is up in the air.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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