Impact Analysis: Ryan Church, New York Mets

May 23, 2008 @ 13:35:52

By Bob Bonett
Edited by Herija C. Green

It is amazing what batting in between New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes and third basemen David Wright can do for you - at least if you are outfielder Ryan Church. The right fielder was acquired by the Mets in an offseason trade that sent outfielder Lastings Milledge to the Washington Nationals in exchange for Church and catcher Brian Schneider. For Church, the trade has done wonders, transforming him from a mid-.270s hitter with below-average power to one of the team's premiere performers. The question that remains is whether Church will keep it up, or if the honeymoon will end.

Mediocrity before the Mets

Church's tenure in the major leagues has not been an overwhelmingly impressive one. Prior to his shipment to Shea Stadium, Church's career batting average sat at .271, and in 997 career at-bats, the outfielder had only hit 35 home runs.

In addition, the knock on Church, a lefty, was his inability to hit left-handed pitchers. As evidenced by his 2007 splits, Church hit nearly 60 points lower against lefties, managing only one home run in 118 at-bats. As a result, Church was often a part of a platoon, and in his four years with the Nationals (the first being with the now-defunct Montreal Expos), Church managed more than 275 at-bats only once.

Church heads north

After four very average years with the Nationals organization, Church was shipped out of town to the Mets along with Schneider for Milledge.

During his tenure in New York, Milledge was often the subject of trade rumors due to his potential, and the fact that he often faced clubhouse issues with veterans - one incident included Mets closer Billy Wagner calling the young outfielder out for showboating.

The trade thus made sense for both teams to make. For the Nationals, a player considered to have a high ceiling was added to the roster, while the Mets received stability behind the plate after losing catcher Paul Lo Duca (Nationals) to free agency and an outfielder that hit well against right-handers and could play right field everyday.

Breakout year

In his first season with the Mets, Church has arguably emerged as the team's most valuable player. He leads the team with a .315 batting average and is tied for the lead in home runs with nine. He has also driven in the second-most runs on the team (32).

Perhaps more importantly, the 29-year-old has hit lefties much better than in previous seasons. Against southpaws, Church is batting .327 and has three home runs and nine RBIs in only 52 at-bats.

The probable reason behind the surge comes from the protection Church has received in the lineup. Two of the National League's most potent hitters, Reyes and Wright, surround Church, who frequently hits second in the order. As a result, pitchers are forced to throw Church pitches in the strike zone, giving him a chance to see more fastballs.

When not batting second, Church usually finds himself fifth, which typically puts him behind outfielder Carlos Beltran and in front of first baseman Carlos Delgado. While perhaps not the equal of having Reyes and Wright on either side of him, it still provides Church with ample protection. He has been highly effective in both spots in the lineup this season, posting a .321-4-10 line batting second and a .296-4-13 clip when in the five spot.

The only setback for Church during the season has been injuries, specifically concussions. The outfielder has already suffered two concussions this year, one during spring training, and one Tuesday, May 20, after colliding with Atlanta Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar. Concussions are injuries that tend to raise a red flag due to their long-term effects on the brain.

Time to sell?

Owners of Church are now scrambling to decide whether Church will keep the pace up, or if it is the prime point to deal the outfielder at a higher price than he is worth. A career .271 hitter does not typically break out for career highs in nearly every offensive category the next season, especially in his first year with a new ball club.

Perhaps a change of scenery - along with some serious lineup help - was all that Church needed, though. Drafted in the 14th round of the 2000 draft by the Cleveland Indians, Church has actually heated up as the season has wore on, hitting six home runs in just 17 May games after belting three in all of April.

Thus, while trading Church at this point may seem the sensible thing to do at the surface, the lefty may actually just be reaching his prime.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Prime is the key word with Church. At 29 years old, Church is just now reaching the age when many major league hitters begin to enjoy their best seasons.

In addition, Church is in some prime spots in one of the league's best batting orders. With Reyes in front of him, Church will undoubtedly have many opportunities to drive in runs, and with Wright batting behind him, it seems unlikely pitchers will pitch around Church. The same holds true when he drops down in the order.

One issue that lingers will be the concussion problem. Church sat out Wednesday, May 21, and did not start the following night. However, he did make a pinch-hitting appearance and could be back in the starting lineup as early as Friday, May 23.

Assuming Church bounces back from the concussion without any additional setbacks, the 2008 season seems about right to expect a breakout year from Church. However, there are simply too many unknowns with his long-term prospects to turn down a respectable haul in exchange for Church. It's a position deep in talent to begin with, so if you can shore up another area of need or return a steadier outfield option you should make the move. Don't give him away, though, as he has shown enough this season to be retained if the offer isn't up to par.

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Bob Bonett

Bob Bonett started contributing to KFFL in 2008. He has worked formerly for JetsInsider.com as a beat writer for the New York Jets, and has been an avid fantasy sports player since his early teen years. He is now an undergraduate student at Hofstra University majoring in sports journalism.

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