Impact Analysis: Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh Pirates

May 23, 2008 @ 13:34:51

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Herija C. Green

Good starting pitching can make or break a team, and no team knows that better than the Pittsburgh Pirates. The second-worst team in baseball last year with a 68-94 record, the Pirates could attribute much of that poor record to bad pitching. Their team had the fifth-worst ERA in the majors at 4.93. However, it would have been even higher if not for starting pitchers Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny, both of whom had career years in 2007.

It is because of these two starters that the Pirates entered the 2008 season with fewer questions in their rotation; with Snell and Gorzelanny firmly entrenched as their top two starters, it seemed as though the bottom of their rotation was their only concern. This season that has been far from the case, as both Snell and Gorzelanny have been huge disappointments as they have put up ERAs on the wrong side of four.

A minor disappointment

Snell, though only 9-12 last season, had strong supporting numbers, as he put up an ERA of 3.76 while striking out a career-high 177 batters. This season, if you were only to take a look at his record of 2-3, you'd be deceived. Snell has pitched poorly, allowing three or more earned runs in seven of his 10 starts.

He has been repeatedly given no decisions this season thanks to an improved Pirates offense bailing him out in games he has started. Though at times Snell has looked like he could be breaking out of his slump – at home against the Atlanta Braves May 9, Snell allowed two hits and one run over seven innings of work in a no-decision – he has followed his strong outings with weaker ones. After that two-hit performance against Atlanta, Snell allowed 11 hits and five earned runs on the road in only four innings of work, earning another no-decision as the Pirates rallied for runs late. That game prompted Snell to discuss his troubles, saying, "I'm just trying to find my way. Baseball's funny. I'm trying to understand it, and I can't. I just know that I'm the one who got us into that mess today."

A major disappointment

Unfortunately for Pirates fans, the 27-year-old Snell isn't even the most disappointing pitcher on his own staff. That inglorious honor goes to Gorzelanny, who sits at 4-4 with a 6.31 ERA and an awful 26:35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Gorzelanny also had big expectations from the Pirates after last season, one in which he amassed a 14-10 record with a 3.88 ERA.

It's easy to see that Gorzelanny's biggest flaw this season has come in his free passes to batters. Last season, he walked a total of 68 batters in 201 2/3 innings of work. In only 45 2/3 innings this year, Gorzelanny has given 35 batters free passes, more than halfway to his total from last year. Projected out to 200 innings, we get a ridiculous 153 walks this season for Gorzelanny, between double and triple his amount from last year.

Gorzelanny's first two starts in May had actually been encouraging in terms of control, as he walked only two in both starts while going 1-1. However, his control was an issue again Thursday, May 22, when he issued four walks in five innings to the Milwaukee Brewers. He was able to limit the damage to two runs and pick up his fourth win, which makes it now three of the last four starts in which he has allowed two or fewer earned runs. However, he allowed four homers and seven runs in six innings in his previous start, which shows that there are still issues that he needs to work through.

Recent home success

Snell and Gorzelanny have struggled both at home in PNC Park and also on the road in their many starts. However, both Snell and Gorzelanny met with some success in their two most recent home starts. With two wins coming in those three starts, the pair allowed no more than two earned runs in each of the four starts while pitching into the sixth inning in each. Though a small sample size, it is encouraging to see them turn it around at home, as that may translate into success in road starts as the season progresses.

Though struggles for the two have occurred all season long, both have been significantly better at home. Snell has a 5.85 road ERA as opposed to his extremely respectable 3.55 home mark. Snell's two most recent starts have lowered his ERA, as in his first two home starts he allowed seven earned runs combined in 12 1/3 innings.

Gorzelanny has a 5.19 ERA at home, and though not good, it's the better of his home/road splits. Even in a home park that at least shades toward being pitcher-friendly, he has an extremely high ERA, a place where he had success last year with a 3.74 ERA. He has been awful on the road this season, sporting a 7.78 ERA in four starts. Any way you dissect it, Gorzelanny has struggled regardless of location in 2008, and it must be a problem - either mental or physical – with Gorzelanny himself that is the cause of his poor outings this season.

Fantasy baseball outlook

If these two could pitch to the potential they showed last season, in combination with the Pirates improved offense, both of the young pitchers would be of significant worth to fantasy teams. However, they have looked nothing like the pitchers they were last season, repeatedly putting up poor numbers in '08. Owners may be kicking themselves for drafting these two, but each still has roughly 20 starts left in the season to turn it around.

Snell has shown signs of righting the ship, and his issues should be fixable as he himself was quoted as saying it was a mental problem. Even in a losing effort against Milwaukee Wednesday, May 21, Snell pitched well, walking only two while striking out six. He is deserving of a roster spot in both NL-only and deep mixed leagues, while owners should take a wait-and-see approach in shallow mixed setups. Snell has shown he is worthy of being started when he is making a home start, so owners should feel confident in Snell to trot him out there on those days. Monitor the next few starts, as Snell seems to have almost gotten back to what made him a success last season.

Gorzelanny is a different story. Despite picking up his third win in the last four starts, he isn't worth a roster spot outside of NL-only formats right now. He has shown some signs he is turning it around, but he gave up seven runs in his May 16 start, turning to watch four long balls that he served up to Chicago Cubs hitters. Until he gets his control back, the 25-year-old isn't deserving of a spot in mixed leagues.

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Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

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