Impact Analysis: Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres

May 21, 2008 @ 14:32:23

By Fraser Lovat
Edited by Richard Garcia

San Diego Padres executive vice president and general manager Kevin Towers announced that the team placed starting pitcher Jake Peavy (elbow) on the 15-day disabled list May 20. The move is retroactive to Thursday, May 15, and Peavy is likely to miss at least two scheduled starts with a strained right elbow.

Numerous reports have stated that the pain in his elbow has been so great that he can't do simple things such as driving his car and turning a doorknob without experiencing pain. At one point, Peavy thought he may be headed towards Tommy John surgery, which is not good news for the 26-year-old, who signed a four-year contract extension worth $51.9 million last season. Things cannot get much worse for the Padres, who owned the worst record in baseball at 17-30 entering play May 21.

Peavy was scheduled to pitch Monday, May 19, against the St. Louis Cardinals after he was scratched from his start May 18. He had an MRI Monday, May 19, which revealed swelling and strained muscles in his right elbow. He has only been on the disabled list one other time in his career and that was in 2004, when he was placed on the 15-day DL due to a strained flexor tendon in his right forearm; he missed five starts due to the injury.

Manager Bud Black said Tuesday, May 20, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner will be out two weeks. Black also stated the ligament looks fine, and he hopes that Peavy will be able to resume throwing in a couple of weeks; Peavy is eligible to return May 30.

When Peavy does return, we may see a different approach on the mound from the flame thrower. Peavy has what some would call a violent delivery. He throws a lot of sliders, which puts a lot more stress on his arm than a two- or four-seam fastball. However, throwing a baseball period is not good for any pitcher's arm. Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley said Peavy has enough pitches "to work from a limited menu," which Balsley said Peavy has done on numerous occasions because of discomfort in his arm and in certain pitch-count situations. If Peavy does take a different approach on the mound he may see his K rate decline.

Replacing their staff ace may be quite the task for the Padres. The right-handed hurler finished last year 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA, while recording 240 strikeouts and only 68 walks in 223 1/3 innings. In nine games this season, Peavy is 4-3 with a 2.91 ERA, 60 strikeouts and 20 walks in 58 2/3 innings pitched.

The team recalled pitcher Joe Thatcher from Triple-A Portland, who is sporting a 0-4 record with a 6.75 ERA in 16 appearances with the team this season.

Who fills in?

With Peavy out at least two weeks, the Padres rotation will look something like this:

• Chris Young (4-3, 4.18 ERA)
• Greg Maddux (3-4, 3.98 ERA)
• Randy Wolf (2-4, 5.05)
• Shawn Estes (1-0, 2.02 ERA)
• Wilfredo Ledezma (0-1, 3.54 ERA)

Ledezma, who was originally pitching out of the bullpen, is expected to fill in for Peavy in the rotation. However, Ledezma said he felt a twinge in his shoulder during his outing Monday, May 19, but stayed in the game. If Ledezma was to miss time for any reason, look for pitcher Justin Germano (0-3, 5.88 ERA) to fill the void in the rotation.

Young, Maddux and Wolf are likely owned in most leagues but if they're not, you may want to look to acquire one of them to replace Peavy. However, Estes and Ledezma are more likely to be available on the waiver wire in most leagues. Pitching in PETCO Park, known as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of major league baseball, increases their value, although neither of them are anything to get excited about.

Estes is sporting a 1-0 record, 2.02 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, six strikeouts and four walks in 13 1/3 innings pitched this season. Estes has made two starts this season after he missed all of 2007 working his way back from reconstructive elbow surgery.

Ledezma is 0-1, with a 3.54 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 22 strikeouts and 16 walks in 28 innings pitched this season. However, he has only two starts this season while most of the innings have come out of the bullpen.

Other fantasy options

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jose Contreras could be a solid pickup for any roster. Contreras is 5-3, with a 3.17 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 32 strikeouts and 16 walks in 59 2/3 innings pitched. However, his K's have declined in each of the last three seasons.

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera is another option who could be worth taking a look at. Cabrera is 5-1, with a 3.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 41 strikeouts and 24 walks in 67 1/3 innings pitched. Cabrera has allowed six earned runs combined in posting three consecutive wins and has increased his strikeouts in each of his last two seasons (157, 166).

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Livan Hernandez is another solid option, although he is nothing special when it comes to strikeouts. In fact, his strikeout total has decreased in each of the last three seasons, and he has just one in his last 13 1/3 innings. Hernandez is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 21 strikeouts and 11 walks in 65 innings pitched this season.

Fantasy outlook

Peavy is expected to miss at least two starts and isn't eligible to return until May 30. When Peavy does return, the Padres are expected to be cautious with him. Obviously, fantasy owners in all formats should hold on to Peavy. However, be mindful that his K rate may be affected when he returns. The team is likely to limit his pitch selection in order to take it easy on his elbow, although it could be for a short period of time. Peavy has an arsenal of pitches at his disposal and should be able to contribute when he returns to the lineup.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Fraser Lovat
Fraser is a Hot off the Wire Analyst with KFFL and has been with the company since 2007.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)