Impact Analysis: Brett Myers, Philadelphia Phillies

May 21, 2008 @ 14:32:47

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Richard Garcia

In just a few short weeks, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Brett Myers has gone from opening day starter to one of the team's biggest question marks of the young season. The 27-year-old right-hander insists that nothing is wrong with his health, his confidence or his stuff, but his numbers tell a different story. In 10 starts this year, Myers has rolled up a 2-5 record with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP - nothing close to what the Phillies hoped for or expected.

To close or not to close?

After the 2005 season, Myers was one of the most promising young pitchers in the National League. Coming off a two-year period from 2005-06 in which he went a combined 25-15 with a 3.81 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and 397 strikeouts, many in the baseball world expected that Myers would be a fixture in the Phillies rotation for years to come.

Myers took the hill opening day in 2007 as the ace of the Phillies rotation, but after three rough starts where he allowed 16 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings, manager Charlie Manuel moved Myers to the bullpen. Faced with a lack of bullpen depth and Myers' ineffectiveness in his first three starts, the Phillies chose to turn him into a reliever. Soon after, Myers took over the ninth-inning role when closer Tom Gordon went on the DL in May.

Thrust into a new late-inning role, Myers was dominant until a right shoulder strain forced him to the DL just three weeks in; he was out until late July. Myers once again pitched well as the team's closer upon his return, finishing with a 5-5 record, 21 saves and a 2.87 ERA in 48 games as a reliever.

Despite Myers' willingness to continue as the Phillies closer in 2008, the team's acquisition of hard-throwing relief pitcher Brad Lidge from the Houston Astros in the offseason changed the dynamic of the staff. The result has been dominance from Lidge (11 saves, 0.45 ERA) and disaster for Myers.

Barring a major injury from Lidge, it appears unlikely that Myers will return to his previous job as closer. Manuel and other team officials have expressed confidence in Myers' ability to set things right. That stated, there is little question that the Phillies might have to consider other options if the situation does not improve. The team has not stated that it's ready to make any drastic moves, though.

Dissecting the numbers

The best thing that Myers has going for him at this point is that he continues to strike out batters. His 50 punch-outs in 59 1/3 innings is solid, which does offer some hope that Myers can correct his awful start. However, his strikeout rate is at its lowest level since 2004 and there has been talk that he has lost some of his velocity. It is always a good thing when a pitcher can make batters miss; unfortunately, that is where the good news starts to run out.

Myers is walking batters at an alarming rate (3.15 walks per nine innings), opponents are batting .307 against him, and he has given up a major league-leading 15 home runs. Those three variables add up to a simple equation – Myers has been one of the least effective and most hittable pitchers in all of baseball this year.

What's broken then?

Theories are abound in the Phillies organization regarding the source of Myers' problems this season; a loss of velocity, a lack of conditioning or that he's pouting because he is no longer the closer. However, clarity on how to fix them is another matter entirely. There does not seem to be any obvious injury issues, leaving everyone to wonder whether it could be something mechanical or mental.

In some early starts, Myers' normally 91-95 mph fastball struggled to break the 88 mph mark. Suspecting that conditioning might be the culprit, coaches suggested that he try long tossing to build up his arm strength. Myers, who never believed that it built up arm strength, obliged the coaching staff. However, he continues to struggle with his ability to locate pitches, especially his curveball.

The most compelling explanation for why Myers has been doing so poorly this year could revolve around the mental aspects of his game. Atlanta Braves veteran John Smoltz experienced this first-hand and was able to make a successful transition. Asked about Myers' situation, Smoltz called the transition back to starting a "battle" and an "adjustment." He expressed confidence that Myers would be able to correct things.

In the knowledge that they have to pitch well for short stints, closers become accustomed to an approach that requires only one or two dominant pitches to overpower batters. Starters have to rely upon an expanded repertoire and have a greater endurance to throw 100-plus pitches. There is a reasonable chance that Myers' struggles are related to either unwillingness or an inability to make the transition.

In the meantime

Fantasy owners in need of pitching help have a few options that are probably on the waiver wire in most leagues.

Boston Red Sox pitcher Bartolo Colon has the potential to be a useful pickup. You should not expect the former Cy Young winner to return to award-winning form, but he offers some strikeout and win potential for a temporary fix. He is expected to make his first start Wednesday, May 21, with Clay Buchholz's (fingernail) placement on the DL.

Jump on the bandwagon of Baltimore Orioles pitcher Daniel Cabrera if no one else in your league has done so already. Sporting a 5-1 record with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 41 strikeouts, the high-upside right-hander leads the team in victories.

Keep an eye out for Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Edwin Jackson in deeper leagues. Jackson is only 24 years old and is 2-3 in nine games this year, with a 3.29 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings. Despite his 0-3 record with four no-decisions in his last seven starts, Jackson has been pitching well and has allowed just one earned run in his last 20 1/3 innings.

Fantasy Outlook

Myers was once a fantasy stud, and he is capable of being one again, although it might not come this season. He picked up his third consecutive loss May 19, and there appears to be no clear-cut answer for why he has struggled.

At this point, Myers' trade value is limited, but it is still too early to cut him in deep mixed or NL-only leagues. However, he could be worth dropping in shallow mixed leagues. Stash him away for now and hope that he is able to get back on track. Wait for him to string together two or three quality starts before you consider plugging him back into your starting lineup.

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