Impact Analysis: Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox

May 19, 2008 @ 11:43:04

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Richard Garcia and Nicholas Minnix

Before the 2008 season, few would have guessed that the Chicago White Sox's "most productive hitter" to date would be outfielder Carlos Quentin. His name does not even appear on this year's All-Star ballot, but he has to be considered a leading candidate to represent the team at the Midsummer Classic in New York this July. What a difference a few weeks can make in baseball!

Quentin's move into the upper echelon of American League hitters has come amidst a campaign in which he is batting .301 with 11 home runs, 37 RBIs, 29 runs scored and four stolen bases. This elite, five-tool output has caused White Sox fans and fantasy owners to wonder whether or not Quentin's ascent is the real thing. A closer look at the right-hander's history and numbers should reveal some insight into that question.

Raised as a Diamondback

A standout performer at Stanford University, Quentin was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2003 with the 29th overall pick. He might have been chosen sooner, but an elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery hurt his draft value and kept him from playing right away.

His professional career was delayed until 2004, but stellar performances at both the Single-A and Double-A levels that year would earn him a promotion to Triple-A Tucson to start the 2005 season. Scouts noted his powerful swing, excellent plate discipline, good speed and athleticism to go with a strong arm. Projected as a middle-of-the-order hitter, his elevation to the majors was expected sometime in 2006.

One of the top prospects in the D-backs system, Quentin made his major league debut July 20, 2006. In 166 at-bats to close out the season, he finished batting .253 with nine home runs and 32 RBIs. However, his problems hitting left-handed pitchers (.171) that year were troubling to the team.

He began the 2007 season on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. He would make another trip to the DL later in the season and was never able to find a rhythm at the plate. After being demoted to Triple-A in July, the D-backs called up outfielder Justin Upton from Double-A to fill Quentin's roster spot. In a tradition similar to that of Wally Pipp, an early 20th-century player who infamously lost his job to New York Yankees great Lou Gehrig, Upton's promise on the field pushed Quentin down the depth chart and made his services expendable to the organization.

Journey to the Windy City

Fed up with Quentin's propensity for injury and satisfied that Upton was their right-fielder of the future, the Diamondbacks traded Quentin to the White Sox in December 2007 for first base prospect Chris Carter. (Carter was later traded to the Oakland Athletics, along with several other players, for starting pitcher Dan Haren and pitcher Connor Robertson.) In the offseason, Quentin had arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder to repair a torn labrum and a torn rotator cuff, but the White Sox were hopeful that he would compete for a starting job come 2008.

Midway through spring training, it did not look like Quentin would break camp with the Sox, according to manager Ozzie Guillen. Shut down by the team for one week in March because of lingering soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder, Quentin's prospects with the team did not look bright. However, a groin injury to outfielder Jerry Owens that left him on the DL to start the season gave Quentin the opening he needed to make the team; he has not looked back.

The addition of a productive Quentin to the White Sox lineup has come at a crucial time for the team. In fact, Guillen has been so impressed with the performance of the 25-year-old that he recently moved him to third in the batting order in an attempt to jump-start the club's offense. It might not be a permanent move, but Quentin is 5-for-13 with a homer and three RBIs since then. As long as he stays productive, it is likely that Quentin will force Guillen to keep him in a prominent spot in the lineup.

Inside the numbers

A deeper examination of Quentin's peripherals reveals a hitter who is coming into his own at the plate. Quentin's hot start to the season is not an aberration.

His excellent 25-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio is indicative of an aggressive hitter with a good eye and strong plate discipline. A contact rate of 82.9 percent with a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .300 tells us that his high batting average is sustainable and not too heavily based on luck. He is hitting more fly balls and fewer groundballs than at any point in his career, but more of his fly balls are leaving the yard.

One area of concern in Quentin's game is his vulnerability to left-handed pitching. This tendency has been evident throughout his career, and he's batting only .240 against southpaws this season. However, he has shown marked improvement this year compared to his two previous major league stints.

Prognosis

Hopefully readers have noticed the numerous mentions of Quentin's injury problems; it was likely an underlying factor in why Arizona was willing to deal him to the Sox. Given his history, the probability of Quentin incurring an injury at some point in the season seems quite high.

However, if Quentin stays healthy, there is little question that he could become one of the top hitters in the majors. His intriguing mix of power, speed and plate discipline makes him a good bet for a high on-base percentage, a few steals and solid home run totals. It does not hurt that his home ballpark heavily favors right-handed hitters. Don't expect 40 homers and 20 steals, but 30 and 12 are within reach.

Fantasy outlook

Quentin is a must-own in all formats. His move to third in the White Sox batting order, especially if it becomes permanent, will only give him more opportunities to score and drive in runs.

There is the possibility that Owens will be recalled. Remember, Owens was slated to be the starting center fielder. However, Guillen has noted that he is happy with his current team, and though it appears Owens could be recalled soon, it shouldn't affect Quentin's playing time in the near future.

Fantasy owners have to be aware that injuries are always a risk with Quentin. With that in mind, if Quentin continues his high level of output, it might be a good time to shop him around for a more established and durable player. Otherwise, keep your fingers crossed that he is able to stay healthy and enjoy the ride, because he is capable of sustaining it.

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