Impact Analysis: Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

May 15, 2008 @ 12:46:55

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Richard Garcia

Out since May 6 with back spasms, Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal (back) was moved to the 15-day disabled list Monday, May 12. After an MRI revealed a lower back strain, Furcal was given a cortisone injection in his sprained sacro-iliac joint. He noted that the injection "hit the spot," and he is making progress in physical therapy to ease the pain in his lower back.

Furcal's placement on the DL is retroactive to May 6, and he is eligible to come off the DL May 21. It is unknown at this time if he will be ready by then due to the fact that it is nearly impossible to predict an accurate healing time for lower back injuries.

A nagging injury?

The injury from which Furcal now suffers is almost identical to one that sidelined him for the last 12 games in September of the 2007 season. He noted that the pain he currently feels is similar to what he felt in September of last year. "This is the type of thing where it feels fine one day and it doesn't the next," Furcal told reporters, adding that he was incapable of running without pain. The recurrence of the back injury and its apparent persistence make for a troubling mix.

In general, injuries involving the back can be muscle, nerve or disc related. This means that there is an enhanced risk that Furcal's backaches could be a lingering concern all season.

Dodgers fans and fantasy owners of Furcal should keep a close watch on his progress while he works to come back from the DL. If he makes it back into the lineup when he's eligible without incident and plays effectively, then it could be a good sign going forward. However, any delay in his return from the DL could be a red flag that he could suffer through the injury for the remainder of the season.

Struggling Dodgers

Furcal must have taken the Dodgers offense with him when he went on the DL. Continuing a trend that goes back to 2007, when the Dodgers lost nine of their last 12 games without Furcal, the team is 2-5 since its star shortstop went down and has only scored 21 runs in that seven-game span. "He's our sparkplug, there's no doubt about it," said catcher Russell Martin. "There's a difference when he's not in the lineup."

Furcal is batting .366 with 34 runs, 16 RBIs, eight steals and a club-leading five home runs; his skills in the field and on the bases are tough to replace. Filling in at shortstop has been rookie infielder Chin-lung Hu, who is hitting just .204, while leadoff duties have been assumed by outfielder Juan Pierre when he's in the lineup. Infielder Luis Maza has been brought in from Triple-A Las Vegas to occupy Furcal's roster spot, but he is a 27-year-old career minor leaguer who provides the team with some versatility.

The Dodgers are a better team with Furcal in the lineup and they are eager to get him back. That being said, Furcal's move to the DL might be a good thing from the standpoint that now he will have time to focus on treating his back without the added pressure of trying to get into the lineup. If everything goes according to plan, Furcal will be back treading the basepaths sometime on or around May 21.

Looking ahead

A healthy Furcal is likely to remain one of the top shortstops in the majors for the remainder of the season. The 30-year-old is in the last year of his contract and the potential to cash in on the free-agent market could be a powerful motivator for him to finish the year strong.

If Furcal's sore back continues to bother him it could be problematic for both the Dodgers and fantasy owners. He played through a left ankle sprain that bothered him all of last year and a back ailment near the end of the season. Furcal managed to bat .270 with six home runs, 87 runs scored, 47 RBIs and 25 stolen bases (arguably his worst season since his 2001 sophomore campaign).

It is also unrealistic to expect that Furcal will continue the scorching pace he set for himself in the opening weeks of the season. There is no precedent anywhere in Furcal's nine-year career for his current OPS (on-base plus slugging) of 1.045 or for his present batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .386. In other words, even if Furcal continues his pace for a career year, fantasy owners should anticipate that his numbers could regress.

Possible fill-ins

In the event of a prolonged absence by Furcal, other shortstops worth consideration might include Washington Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman. He is hitting in at the top of the order with a .297 average, three home runs, 18 RBIs and one stolen base on the season.

Oakland Athletics shortstop Bobby Crosby is having one of his best starts since his rookie season. He is batting .255 with two home runs and 21 RBIs while batting .333 (5-for-15) in his last four games.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim shortstop Erick Aybar has taken the lead for playing time at short. Aybar is hitting .290 with 14 RBIs and five stolen bases. He makes for a solid addition and could have long-term value in a strong Angels lineup.

Fantasy outlook

Furcal's performance so far this season has been one of the biggest fantasy stories in baseball. If his production stays anywhere near the levels he established in April, then Furcal could challenge for National League MVP honors. However, he has a career batting average of .287 and hasn't hit more than 15 home runs in a season. Those numbers don't exactly scream MVP. Despite the chance that Furcal's back injury might affect his performance throughout the year, he is a risk worth taking.

Stash Furcal on your DL in all fantasy formats. Monitor Furcal's return for signs that his back might be a continuing problem and be prepared to seek out a long-term solution if he can't be productive.

Fantasy owners in NL-only leagues might consider a flier on Hu. The 24-year-old Taiwanese rookie was rated by Baseball America as the No. 3 prospect in the Dodgers organization. He has some speed, multiple-position eligibility and could hit for a decent average.

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