Impact Analysis: Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays

May 14, 2008 @ 13:27:44

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Richard Garcia

The busy injury bug chose Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells (wrist) as its next victim to feel the wrath of its venomous bite. The 6-foot-1, 235-pound veteran was officially placed on the 15-day disabled list May 10 due to a broken left wrist he suffered while making a diving catch during the Blue Jays' May 9 loss to the Cleveland Indians. The 10-year veteran is expected to be out until late June but most likely won't see the field until early July.

With Wells' wing clipped for a bit, a move to center field for outfielder Alex Rios is in the cards. In addition, new Jays outfielders Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench could garner significant playing time platooning in right field. Designated hitter Matt Stairs should continue to see plenty of at-bats as well.

First flight

For the Seattle Mariners this season, Wilkerson was 13-for-56 (.232) with no home runs, five RBIs, one run scored and one stolen base. With the Blue Jays this season, he has gone 2-for-16 (.125) with no dingers and one run scored. However, you must remember that with playing time, Wilkerson sports a solid history of decent production. In eight years of Major League Baseball service, the soon-to-be 31-year-old Wilkerson has notched three seasons with 20 or more dingers and two campaigns with 65-plus RBIs.

However, he has spent the last four seasons of his career as a utility player. The reason is evident when you notice that he boasts a career .249 batting average and has struck out 145-plus times in four campaigns in his career. Not to mention, he boasts a career .264 average against southpaws and a wretched .244 clip off right-handers. He is a decent short-term option in AL-only formats with the slight chance that he'll find his 20-plus dinger power, but don't count on it.

The other half of the possible platoon caused by Wells' absence is Mench, who was acquired from the Texas Rangers May 9 for cash considerations. The 30-year-old Mench played all of his 2008 season thus far with Texas' Triple-A affiliate. For the Oklahoma RedHawks, Mench hit .282 with three home runs, 18 RBIs and 18 runs scored in 110 at-bats. In Triple-A, he hit an astronomical .412 against left-handed hurlers and a paltry .224 against right-handed pitchers.

In four games with the Blue Jays this season, Mench is 3-for-11 (.273) with one run scored and one stolen base. In his big league career, Mench has hit a legit .305 against southpaws and a self-destructive .255 against right-handers, which will likely warrant his usage against southpaws when the situation presents itself.

Mench has two seasons with 25 or more home runs and 70-plus RBIs to his credit. Plus, he's a career .271 hitter that has never struck out more than 83 times in a season. However, his fantasy value is limited to a reserve role in AL-only leagues.

On the season, the 40-year-old Stairs is hitting .306 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and 17 runs scored in 108 at-bats. His career .847 OPS denotes the possession of a decent power stroke that is supported by six seasons of 20 or more home runs, which includes 38 dingers in 1999.

This season Stairs has 66 at-bats as a designated hitter, 28 at-bats in left field and eight in right field. In his career, he has hit a putrid .238 against southpaws and a respectable .275 against right-handed hurlers. With former designated hitter Frank Thomas' departure, Stairs was already filling the full-time void left by the immortal slugger. Now with Wells' injury, it's nearly a guarantee that Stairs will be in the lineup on a consistent basis. His value in AL-only leagues is apparent, and in mixed leagues he's worth a flier in deep formats.

Rock and Rolen

Another man perhaps poised to benefit from Wells' injury is third baseman Scott Rolen. On the year, Rolen is hitting .290 with two home runs, eight RBIs and five runs scored in 62 at-bats. With Wells' departure, he seems to have taken sole possession of the cleanup role in Toronto's lineup and should remain there until Wells returns.

In his career, Rolen has notched 2,449 at-bats occupying the No. 4 spot, a position where he has hit .283 with 127 home runs, 462 RBIs, 463 runs scored and a .896 OPS. He has nine seasons with 20-plus home runs and eight campaigns with 85-plus RBIs under his belt in his 13 seasons in the bigs. Rolen should provide the Blue Jays and fantasy owners with a cleanup hitter for the time being. He is now a must-have in most formats and should be considered a solid midseason sleeper if he retains his shaky health. Keep in mind that the Jays lineup is among the weakest in the league. While Rolen's lineup spot is prominent, his opportunities to produce are likely to be sparser than those of other cleanup hitters.

Crash landing

In Wells, the Blue Jays will lose a player that is more than capable of launching 30-plus home runs with 100-plus RBIs and around 10 stolen bases. However, a rough 2007 season left the team with grave concerns, especially since Wells is considered the bat that the Jays have built their nest around.

His departure leaves Toronto without one of the best defensive center fielders in the game and puts the team's source of power on a backup generator. His leadership in the clubhouse will be missed immensely and his overall presence on the field could eventually take its toll. Not to mention, he was the team leader in hits (39), home runs (five), RBIs (24) and runs scored (21) in Toronto's first 38 contests.

With Wells' injury, Toronto will get to see what they are made of and have a glimpse of what the team will be like without the seemingly overpaid Wells. Wells' most recent irregularities are worrisome, so seeing the lineup without him could be a precursor to future player movement under the watchful glare of general manager J.P Ricciardi.

Waiver wire waltz

To replace Wells, owners should take a look at St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Ryan Ludwick. On the season, the 29-year-old University of Nevada-Las Vegas alum is hitting .336 with eight home runs, 24 RBIs and 22 runs scored in 107 at-bats. He has hit safely in 11 of his last 13 contests and sports a scary .391 batting average against right-handers on the year. His tenacity and competitiveness are proving their worth in the bigs; he should be a fine fill-in until Wells comes back.

Another possible waiver wire plug-in is Oakland Athletics outfielder Emil Brown. On the season, Brown is hitting .277 with four home runs, 33 RBIs, 22 runs scored and two stolen bases in 148 at-bats. He was acquired as a free agent in the offseason and has filled in nicely while hitting in the fifth spot in the A's order. Brown leads the team in batting average, RBIs, home runs and runs scored. His insertion into your lineup should provide nearly the same production Wells was spewing, just not at the All-Star level that Wells has been known for at times in his career.

Fantasy outlook

The outlook for Wells looks bleak for the time being. His absence for six to eight weeks will undoubtedly force owners to raid a rival team's roster or turn to the abyss of the waiver wire. Plus, when Wells does come back, the chances of him being 100 percent after suffering a broken wrist are slim. However, he provides solid production when healthy and has proven in the past to be a true force. If you have the room, stash him away on your disabled list, or if you can't retain his services, take a look at the guys mentioned above as they could provide similar stats. Ludwick and Brown are solid options in all formats.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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