Impact Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals bullpen

May 12, 2008 @ 14:58:31

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

St. Louis Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen is out as the team's stopper; a closer by committee is in.

"We should have five more wins in the win column," Isringhausen said. "We should be out in first place even more. They can't keep sending me out there when I'm pitching the way I'm pitching. I'm going to have to figure out some kind of remedy. I'm sure that remedy will give me some time off from the role and get someone in there who can do a better job right now."

Those were prophetic words from Isringhausen after blowing his fifth save Friday, May 9. The very next day he was removed from closing by manager Tony La Russa. The team will mix and match depending on the situation, though relief pitcher Ryan Franklin is tapped to see most of the work, with Russ Springer and Randy Flores also expected to see time. Rookie reliever Kyle McClellan could also have some chances in the ninth.

Isringhausen is suffering from a loss in confidence and a flaw in mechanics that is hurting his cut fastball - his most effective pitch. It had not been all bad for Isringhausen through the first month and a half. His five blown saves were tied for the league lead, but he also had an NL-leading 11 saves before being removed. Fantasy owners can only imagine what could have been if Izzy was on. This is somewhat new ground for Isringhausen; his ERA sits at 7.47 with 11 strikeouts and a 1.72 WHIP.

Isringhausen is the all-time saves leader for the Cardinals with 292. He finished last year with a 4-0 record, 32 saves and a 2.48 ERA. It was his fourth straight season with 30 or more saves.

What is wrong with Izzy?

Izzy worked 12 innings in April and had already thrown 3 2/3 frames in May before his latest breakdown. That is the most innings he has pitched in an opening month since he threw 13 2/3 innings in April 2002.

According to La Russa, Isringhausen was pressing too hard in his recent appearances. The team was off to a 22-15 start through games Friday, May 9, and was in the thick of the National League Central race with the Chicago Cubs. If converted, his five blown saves likely would have given the Cardinals a cushy lead in the division.

The loss of confidence could have stemmed from a flaw in Izzy's delivery. It began when he threw his slider, but the result has decimated his delivery of his cut fastball and his curveball. His cut fastball is his top pitch, but it had proved ineffective against right-handed hitters, who have a .341 average against him this year. He still had some success with his curveball but only as an out pitch; he could not locate it for strikes. A positive sign for fantasy owners is that the velocity is still there. He was reaching 93 and 94 mph on his pitches during his final appearances.

Isringhausen has already begun his comeback. He threw 20 pitches in the bullpen Sunday, May 11, trying to fix the flaw in his mechanics. He was available to pitch during the game that same day but did not make it in. He will generally work in the low-pressure sixth and seventh innings. The hope is that he will regain his confidence working in those innings and be able to return to his role as closer.

Who will get the call going forward?

Who are the remaining options in the Cardinals bullpen? Franklin, Springer, Flores and McClellan have been great so far this year. Franklin likely will receive the majority of the opportunities with Springer and Flores stepping in once in awhile.

Franklin has been the most dominant pitcher in the Cardinals bullpen. He sports a miniscule 1.89 ERA and has given up 16 hits in 19 innings. He is not a great strikeout pitcher with a strikeout rate of just 3.79 per nine innings. However, if you are looking for someone to step in and pick up saves, Franklin could be your best bet.

Springer is another solid option for La Russa. He has more experience than Franklin with eight saves, though his '08 ERA (6.43) is substantially higher. However, that number is slightly inflated. Discounting a three-run appearance April 4, Springer has an ERA of 2.57. Springer also dealt with elbow issues earlier this year, but he has an ERA of 3.60 since returning.

If you are looking for another possibility in deep leagues, McClellan has been steady in his rookie season. He does not have the experience of the other two, but he has a 2.79 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings this year. His strikeout rate is better than that of Springer and Franklin. His 12 holds are tied with Franklin for the league lead. The team likely is reluctant to remove McClellan from his current role; they might want to keep him where he is comfortable in helping their pen. However, remember that there is a precedent here; La Russa was not afraid to use pitcher Adam Wainwright, then a rookie, in save situations during their World Series-winning run in 2006.

Flores has a 2.08 ERA in 8 2/3 innings this season and picked up a save April 5 when Isringhausen received the night off. However, Flores has allowed a run in his last two outings, including a blown save.

Finally, one long-term option for deep keeper leagues could be relief pitcher Chris Perez, currently closing for Triple-A Memphis. He has 21 strikeouts and eight saves in 16 2/3 innings for the Redbirds this year. He has closer-type stuff, though he likely is a year or two away. Don't consider him just yet in keeper fantasy leagues, but he is someone to keep an eye on. He could see a September call-up if the pen struggles and the team remains in contention down the stretch.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Isringhausen's demotion may only be temporary. Given time to regain his confidence, Izzy could be back finishing games for them sooner than later. Hang onto him for now in all league types. Even if he doesn't close, he could still give you a boost in ERA, WHIP and holds if he improves on his mechanics.

If you are looking for an immediate replacement, Franklin is the best fantasy option. He has done an outstanding job in the eighth inning and picked up his first save of the year May 10. Grab him in all league formats - especially if you already own Isringhausen.

Springer and McClellan aren't bad consolation prizes; they would be worth picking up in deep mixed and NL-only formats - Springer more than McClellan - especially if your league values holds.

 

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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