Impact Analysis: Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians

May 7, 2008 @ 14:31:29

By Owen Kinsky
Edited by Herija C. Green

Most great hitters encounter a slump at some point during the season. Others have a certain month of the season that for some reason or another, they just don't hit well in. However, great hitters usually break out of these slumps quickly to reward fantasy owners who stuck with them. Cleveland Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner hasn't done anything of the sort so far this season. With an embarrassing stat line in April and an equally terrible beginning to May, one has to wonder - what's wrong with Pronk?

Just two seasons ago, Hafner hit 42 home runs, had 117 RBIs and batted .308 in his best season in the majors. Even with a slight drop-off in production last season - one in which he still hit 24 home runs and drove in 100 runs with a .266 average - this slump is surprising and has fantasy owners in a panic.

Past April success

Hafner hasn't struggled out of the gate since his rookie season. Just last season, Hafner raked in April, accumulating five home runs and a .338 average that would prove to be his best month of the season. The year before, when he finished eighth in the AL MVP voting, Hafner again had a solid April, posting a .333 average with seven homers.

Though single-season examinations show that Hafner has had April success the past two seasons, over the course of his career April has been one of his worst months. Including this season, Hafner has a .276 career average in April, his second-worst month. In the dog days of summer, it seems Hafner hits his stride, with a career average hovering near .300 for the months of June, July and August.

Poor finish to 2007

Hafner finished the 2007 regular season on a roll with September being arguably his strongest month of the season. He hit .316 with five home runs and 23 RBIs while helping to guide the Tribe to the playoffs. However, it is Hafner's playoff performance that could still be affecting his hitting this season.

In last year's American League Championship Series, Hafner hit .148 and struck out 12 times, both worst on the Indians roster in the LCS. This poor performance on the part of their designated hitter was certainly a factor in the Indians losing the series. Hafner undoubtedly knows this and it could be affecting his mentality at the plate this season.

Causes of his struggles this year

Hafner doesn't seem to be gauging the strike zone that well this season. Hafner walked only 12 times in his first 26 games, putting him pace for 75 walks over 162 games. While not awful, Hafner has drawn at least 100 free passes in each of the last two years. In addition, Hafner struck out 27 times in April - on pace for 168, which would be 45 more than his current career high.

A left-handed hitter, Hafner has a career .294 average versus righties, with 109 of his 145 career homers coming against them. So far this season Hafner has struggled to hit them, batting .193 with a .289 on-base percentage in 97 plate appearances, though his three home runs this season have all come against right-handers. With his career success against right-handed pitching evident, Hafner should be able to improve upon these numbers in the coming weeks.

His struggles are affecting the Tribe

While it is hard to attribute a team's success to the hitting of one player, it seems as though this could be the case with the Indians and Hafner. In Cleveland's 15 wins this season, Hafner (who has played in 13 of them) has hit .315 with two homers, while in their 17 losses he has posted a terrible .117 average.

The Indians have been doing whatever they can to try and pry Hafner out of his slump. They tried to leave him alone and let him work out of the slump on his own, but after more than 30 games, the Indians took action. Hafner hit in the three-hole nearly all April (with four starts in the cleanup spot at the beginning of the month unrelated to his struggles), but since the start of May manager Eric Wedge has moved Hafner down to the No. 6 spot in the lineup.

This move, likely a temporary one, has seemingly had an adverse effect on the Indians lineup as a whole. With Hafner batting sixth, the Indians have moved outfielder Dave Dellucci, a career .261 hitter, to the No. 3 spot. This move could not only decreases Hafner's RBI opportunities as he won't often have center fielder and leadoff hitter Grady Sizemore on base in front of him, it could aso affect Sizemore's runs scored as Dellucci isn't the RBI machine Hafner has proven himself to be in years past.

The Indians, already struggling with the poor pitching of 2007 Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia, could use Hafner playing in top form to help compete for a playoff spot in a tough AL Central this year. The offense as a whole could continue to remain stagnant until Hafner breaks out of his slump.

Fantasy baseball outlook

With Hafner in the six spot, fantasy owners can only hope he picks up his production and gets back to batting third soon, or he could lose additional his fantasy value. Unfortunately, Hafner has shown little sign of ending this slump and earning his No. 3 spot back. Until he does, he should remain on owners' benches.

As mentioned above, Hafner in his career has excelled in the summer, posting his best numbers between June and August, so there is hope for fantasy owners yet. Those who haven't abandoned ship and traded Hafner may be wise to stash him on the bench until he breaks out of his funk. At just 30 years old, it's difficult to believe that Hafner's best years are already behind him.

Though he is a burden on rosters right now, Hafner could still reward those who stick with him once he breaks out of his slump as he can help you with your power and average categories in rotisserie scoring. Those looking for some help with the home run category may want to try buying low on Hafner to pry him from an impatient owners as this slump is unprecedented in his career and will most likely end soon.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Owen Kinsky
Owen Kinsky is a KFFL contributor that has been an avid sports fan his entire life. He began playing fantasy sports, both football and baseball, back in 2000. His love of writing and the game of baseball brought him to KFFL in 2008.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)