Impact Analysis: Rich Hill, Chicago Cubs

May 7, 2008 @ 14:31:14

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Herija C. Green

The Chicago Cubs optioned 28-year-old left-hander Rich Hill to Triple-A Iowa Saturday, May 3, following a series of poor starts related to problems with his command. The final straw that provoked the move came during a May 2 outing in which Hill walked four of the six batters he faced and failed to finish the first inning in a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. It is unclear at this time when Hill might return to the club.

Both Cubs manager Lou Piniella and general manager Jim Hendry have expressed disappointment with Hill's performance so far this season, but both men also said that they hoped to see Hill back in a Cubs uniform very soon. "He needs to relax and just go pitch," said Piniella, "he'll go down to Iowa and get a few starts, and I think you'll see him back here pitching well for us."

Expectations on the part of the Cubs organization that Hill would deliver around 200 innings and 15 wins in 2008 were based on growth shown by the young lefty over the last three seasons. Having gotten his first call to the majors in 2005, Hill has consistently improved his strikeout and walk rates each year even as his ERA and WHIP ratios have progressed.

Table: Hill's stats (2005-07)

Season	Innings	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2005	23.2	0-2	9.13	1.77	7.99	6.46	1.14
2006	99.1	6-7	4.17	1.23	8.15	3.53	1.45
2007	195	11-8	3.92	1.19	8.45	2.91	1.25

The perception that Hill was developing into a reliable pitcher with solid peripherals was encouraged by the strength of his 2007 campaign. Finishing with a record of 11-8 over 195 innings and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 183-63, it looked as though Hill could be poised for a breakout season in 2008. Unfortunately, troubling signs emerged for Hill very early on this year.

A disastrous spring training for Hill in which he walked 15 batters in 17 2/3 innings would portend ill for his regular. However, unfazed by his rocky spring, the Cubs plugged Hill into the fourth spot in their rotation as the year began.

Over five regular season starts and 19 2/3 innings, Hill demonstrated the same inability to keep the ball in the strike zone as he showed in the spring; the result has been a 1-0 record with a 4.12 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.

Hill's heavy reliance on off-speed pitches, particularly a sharp breaking ball, make it a necessity for him to exhibit pinpoint control on the mound. His 18 walks so far this season are a testament to his failure to do so, even as 15 strikeouts and .191 opponents' batting average indicate that his dominance has not deserted him entirely.

Hope for Hill's speedy return could be on the horizon. Hill has claimed that he was able to identify a mechanical issue that might explain his troubles, blaming it on a slight drop in his arm angle as compared to previous years.

Hill made his first Triple-A start Tuesday, May 6. Working five innings, he allowed seven hits and two earned runs while walking one and striking out five; out of 78 pitches thrown, 47 were for strikes. Obviously, Triple-A competition does not compare to that in the majors, but it is a good sign that Hill was able to throw strikes consistently.

Positives

Cubs fans and fantasy owners might be happy to know that this is not the first time that Hill has been sent down to work on his arsenal. Hill was ineffective to begin the 2006 season, went to Triple-A for a little more than two months to iron out his game, and returned to post a 6-3 record with a 2.93 ERA for the remainder of that season.

Even as Hill's walk rate has reached a major league career high, he has held opponents to a .191 batting average and a career-low rate of home runs allowed. Consider that along with the 15 strikeouts he has recorded and it is not unreasonable to believe that Hill can return to major league effectiveness this year, possibly in a matter of weeks.

Negatives

A major league pitcher's confidence can be a fragile thing. If somehow Hill gets it into his head that major league hitters have his number or that the Cubs have lost confidence in him, he could be done for.

There is also the problem of whether or not there is a bigger mechanical or physical issue to blame for Hill's struggles. No sources at this point indicate anything in that vein, but given the magnitude of Hill's poor start, it shouldn't be ruled out.

Fantasy Outlook

Hill has amply demonstrated his ability to be an effective and at times dominating major league pitcher over the last two seasons and it is quite possible that he could do so again. That being said, this is the perfect time to buy low in all leagues.

Owners who drafted Hill are likely frustrated by his performance to date and could be amenable to moving him for pennies on the dollar if not outright releasing him. Those with room on their rosters to stash Hill for the next several weeks could be richly rewarded late in the season as the Cubs push for the playoffs.

Between his strikeout potential and the Cubs ability to put runs on the board and win games, Hill could bring tremendous value to any owner willing to take the risk on his return to major league action. Monitor Hill's next few starts in the minors, just keep in mind that his trade value is probably at its lowest point right now.

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