Impact Analysis: Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies

May 3, 2008 @ 11:19:18

By William Hupp
Edited by Tim Heaney

This much seems certain about the Colorado Rockies outfield these days: Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe will continue to start in left and right field, respectively, with Ryan Spilborghs backing them up.

The only question lies in center, where incumbent Willy Taveras and surprising free-agent pickup Scott Podsednik are dueling for playing time. Oh, and Spilborghs backs them up, too.

Both backups, however, have been making a claim for playing time. Taveras was out of the starting lineup for three straight games from April 23-25, and his fantasy value became a little shaky.

Taveras recently complained to reporters about his lack of playing time, but Rockies manager Clint Hurdle responded by professing Taveras' value to the team.

"I still think for us, at least as we move forward, Willy is going to get every opportunity to play," Hurdle said after the team's April 25 game. "I've just got to find reps and at-bats for Ryan Spilborghs, who does what he does very well. I think Podsednik is going to bring a very nice dimension and dynamic to our club that's going to play very well. They both happen to be able to play center field. I wouldn't say it's going to be a three-headed center fielder by any means."

Taveras has seemingly responded with a speed binge, stealing five bases combined in the Rockies' last two games through Friday, May 2. With Hurdle making an effort to insert Podsednik and Spilborghs into the lineup, though, Taveras might not have as tight a hold on the job.

Wheeling Willy

Taveras struggled early but seems to have surged ahead in the race as of late, starting 13 of the last 14 games (and also entering as a pinch-hitter once in that span). He has hit safely in 16 of his last 19 games, raising his average from .118 to a serviceable .266. Taveras, who's more of a run scorer than a run producer, has already swiped 13 bases. His steal total puts him in a three-way tie for the league lead with Houston Astros outfielder Michael Bourn and Minnesota Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez - two other prominent fantasy speed names.

On the plus side, Taveras hits for a high average and steals bases. On the other hand, he doesn't draw enough walks and strikes out too much. His power numbers are consistently some of the worst in the league among starters (six home runs and 86 RBIs for his career).

Hurdle recently challenged Taveras to be more aggressive on the base paths. Taveras obliged with three steals Wednesday, April 30, and two thefts May 2. It's hard to expect such performances with such frequency, but Taveras showed that he can still be a fantasy contributor in at least one category when given the green light.

Invaded by Pods

Colorado general manager Dan O'Dowd made a low-risk, high-reward move when he signed Podsednik to a minor league contract. After coming up with the Milwaukee Brewers, Podsednik was a productive base stealer in his first two years for the Chicago White Sox, but his erratic offensive production and injury history frustrated manager Ozzie Guillen; the White Sox cut Podsednik after the 2007 season. In his last two seasons, Podsednik battled muscle pulls in his groin and ribcage, limiting his effectiveness on the base paths. He combined to hit just .256 with a sub-.330 on-base percentage and five home runs.

Podsednik has enjoyed a nice resurgence back in the National League. In 31 at-bats, he's hitting .323. More importantly, he has an OBP of .459 with six runs and four steals while filling in admirably for Taveras.

However, it appears Podsednik's best days are behind him. He has hit five homers total since hitting 12 in 2004 alone, he has not hit over .290 since 2003, and he still strikes out too much. The 32-year-old appears to be a shadow of his former self on the bases. He seems to be settling into his role as a reserve, however, and has become one of the Rockies' more reliable pinch-hitters.

Versatility Spil-eth over

Spilborghs, meanwhile, has started just one game in center over the past 13, but has the added advantage of being able to play in any outfield spot. He is a more similar player to Hawpe and Holliday, providing nice pop and a steady average (career .296 hitter) off the bench. The 28-year-old is hitting .292 with 10 RBIs, but five of those came in his April 9 game.

He has been finding at-bats in the corner spots and as a pinch-hitter, but barring an injury to one of the regular starters he likely won't crack the everyday lineup with two speedier players available in center.

Fantasy outlook

In many ways, Taveras and "Pods" are much the same player. Both are typical center fielders who can cover a lot of ground, lead off and reach base but provide miniscule power. Both are dangerous on the base paths but have struggled with various nagging injuries that have limited their production in recent years.

From a fantasy perspective, Taveras appears to be the starter with Podsednik the role player off the bench. If you're looking for steals and runs, they can fit in well with your team, depending on the classification and depth of your league. Podsednik deserves consideration in NL-only leagues right now based on his potential to diminish Taveras' playing time.

Taveras is the clear choice because he's starting and is likelier to hit for a higher average and steal more bases than Podsednik. Those who already have Taveras own him for his speed. He is still serviceable in deep leagues, and in shallow leagues he should be retained, especially if you need steals or want a quality backup. 

Don't discount Spilborghs, however. He has more at-bats than Podsednik (48 to 31) this season and can play any position in the outfield, which means he'll most likely end up with more at-bats than Podsednik in the long run. Also, he will likely hit for a similar average to Taveras but with better power numbers and fewer steals. Like Podsednik, Spilborghs could be a good depth option for NL-only leagues, but he really can't do much for your team until he finds a permanent landing spot.

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