Impact Analysis: John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves

May 2, 2008 @ 14:11:12

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Richard Garcia

The Atlanta Braves placed pitcher John Smoltz (shoulder) on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday, April 30, retroactive to Monday, April 28. Smoltz, who will turn 41 May 15, was diagnosed by renowned orthopedic surgeon and sports medicine specialist Dr. James Andrews with a severely inflamed biceps tendon and inflammation of the rotator cuff in his right shoulder.

These latest injury woes for Smoltz are unrelated to the back and shoulder muscle soreness that sidelined the pitcher out of spring training. However, this latest problem could be far more serious in the long run.

Where to go from here

After receiving a cortisone injection, Smoltz was told to rest his arm for an undetermined period of time. The Braves were told that he would be able to get over the injury without surgery. At present, the Braves have no timetable for Smoltz's return, but he hopes to be pitching in about two to three weeks. He would like to make two or three minor league rehab appearances before possibly joining the Braves bullpen.

The most troubling aspect of this situation involves the potential that the injury to the shoulder could cause further complications down the road. Research done by Dr. Andrews has shown that injuries to the biceps tendon can lead to a higher probability of damage to the labrum of the shoulder. That type of problem would require surgery to correct, and it is likely that Smoltz would retire rather than go through another agonizing rehabilitation process at this stage of his career.

For the time being, the Braves organization and manager Bobby Cox remain publicly optimistic about the possibility of Smoltz's return. However, given the increasing tendency of major league clubs and officials to understate the seriousness of injuries involving their players in the last few years, it is probably best to take their statements with a grain of salt. What is clear from reports coming out of Atlanta is that if and when Smoltz does return, he will be plugged into the team's bullpen, at least temporarily.

The injury troubles of Braves setup man Peter Moylan (elbow) and closer Rafael Soriano (elbow) as well as the perceived unreliability of pitcher Manny Acosta as a fill-in closer, the move of a healthy Smoltz into that role would be of tremendous value to the team.

Neither Smoltz nor Cox would rule out the possibility that the closer role would only prove temporary, but Smoltz told MLB.com, "I'm coming back as a reliever first and then we'll see what happens. But I'd be blowing smoke at you if I told you I'd come (off the disabled list) and be a six- or seven-inning pitcher."

In four starts this season, Smoltz showed fans and fantasy owners the form that could earn him a spot in the baseball Hall of Fame. Smoltz compiled a 2.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 27 innings of work. His fastball was consistently clocked at over 95 mph as he struck out 36 batters and became only the 16th pitcher in Major League Baseball history to tally 3,000 strikeouts.

The loss of Smoltz from their rotation leaves the Braves in a difficult position. To alleviate the situation, the team called up pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes from Triple-A Richmond to take Smoltz's spot in the rotation against the Cincinnati Reds Saturday, May 3. Reyes is 1-1 in five Triple-A starts this year with a 1.17 ERA and made 10 major league starts at the end of the 2007 season. In his first major league stint last year, Reyes went 50 2/3 innings, assembling a 2-2 record with a 6.22 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP.

Positives

Returning from the DL in early April, Smoltz was overwhelmingly dominant in his first three outings. He displayed the ability to move the ball around the strike zone with great command while using power and finesse. Those pitching skills are great signs that a healthy Smoltz could still be of immense value this season. However, his production could come in terms of saves instead of wins if he stays in the bullpen.

Despite the disappointment that many fantasy owners must feel at the probable loss of Smoltz as a starter, remember that in 3 1/2 seasons - from 2001 to 2004 - Smoltz was arguably the most dominant closer in the game. In that span, he averaged 75 innings pitched and 48 saves. Smoltz notched a franchise-record 154 saves in 168 opportunities. A healthy Smoltz could be a top-five closer, and the possibility does still exist that he could return to the rotation.

Negatives

The combination of inflammation in his shoulder along with lingering concern over early season back and shoulder muscle problems does not bode well for the long-term health of Smoltz this season. Additionally, the risk that further work could aggravate Smoltz's tendonitis into a full-blown structural problem requiring surgery is very real.

At this point, the Braves have no idea when Smoltz might return from the DL. Smoltz is not even scheduled to return to light throwing until mid-May at the earliest, so the uncertainty over his status is the biggest problem for fantasy owners right now. At 41 years of age, it is not to be expected that Smoltz will recovery quickly or completely from all that ails him. Smoltz admits that his return would be far from pain free.

Fantasy outlook

Smoltz's toughness and competitive fire are well-noted aspects of his personality, and as such, fantasy owners are not advised to give up on him just yet. Even if he does lose fantasy value as a starter, the dominance that he showed early this season could mean that a return to the bullpen would be beneficial in the highly competitive market for saves.

Managers with the ability to place him on the DL or to stash him on their rosters should do so. Monitor Smoltz's progress closely over the coming weeks and re-evaluate the situation in mid-May. Just the same, if someone offers you a reasonable deal for Smoltz that helps you right now, it might not be a bad idea to take it. Just realize that you could be underselling his future value.

Desperate fantasy owners in NL-only leagues might consider taking a flier on Reyes, but keep in mind that he was pounded in 10 major league starts at the end of the 2007 season and there is not likely to be a major rush by fantasy owners to procure his services. The young man is not without talent though, so keep an eye on him even if you do not pick him up.

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