Impact Analysis: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies

May 2, 2008 @ 12:10:09

By David Wysocki
Edited by Herija C. Green

When it rains it pours and for Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (quad), it seems to be flash flooding. Word out of Rockies camp is that Tulowitzki tore a tendon in his left quadriceps, to malevolently place the cherry on top of what was already an atrocious start to the 2008 season.

Tulowitzki, 23, entered 2008 with Mile-High expectations after a 2007 campaign that earned him MVP votes and a second-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. His maiden monster season witnessed him hit .291 with 24 homers and 99 RBIs, catapulting the Rockies to their first World Series appearance in team history. While it may seem to be the dreaded sophomore slump, realistically his problem is not uncommon for a player still wet behind the ears.

The Boston Red Sox exposed Tulowitzki last October by throwing fastballs up and in before getting him to chase pitches down and off the plate. Tulowitzki has struggled badly this season seeing a steady diet of Boston's approach and, looking for answers, has dug himself deeper with an overaggressive approach. All of this coming on the heels of a new six-year, $31 million pact; the richest contract given to a non-Japanese or Cuban player with less than two years of experience.

As of May 1, the 6-foot-3 shortstop was hitting at a .152 clip and has only one round-tripper. His .238 slugging percentage makes fellow Rockies outfielder Willy Taveras look like Mickey Mantle. In fact, it took Tulowitzki 12 games to record his first RBI.

The quad, which he hurt April 29 while charging a ground ball, is expected to keep him on the shelf for at least six weeks. According to agent Paul Cohen, however, it appears the Rockies will be without the former first-round pick until after the All-Star break, and maybe longer. Tulowitzki and the team believe the injury will heal on its own, but surgery down the road is a distinct possibility.

The news for the Rockies is harrowing considering as of May 1 they had lost eight of their last 10 games and were becoming all too accustomed to life near the NL West cellar alongside the San Diego Padres. Ironically, both teams faced-off in a one-game playoff for the NL Wild Card berth last October.

Replacing Tulowitzki in the lineup is a familiar face for the Rockies and fantasy players. Infielder Clint Barmes, who sparked excitement in 2005 after hitting .289 with 10 homers and 46 RBIs in just 350 at-bats, has temporarily reclaimed his old position. The move back to shortstop comes just days after Barmes had firmly laid claim to the second base job. Rookie second baseman Jayson Nix, who was the starter on opening day, went 5-for-45 with just one extra-base hit before being optioned to Triple-A Colorado Springs. 

Barmes, 29, has just 102 major league at-bats since 2006 while shifting between the Rockies, the minors and the disabled list. He failed to eclipse the .220 mark in 2006 and 2007 where he accumulated a total of 515 at-bats. However, his solid .292 average in 65 at-bats thus far in 2008 gives some hope that the Rockies won't fall off too far offensively in Tulowitzki's absence.

Barmes is a career .285 hitter in the minors and hit a career-high 16 home runs for Triple-A Colorado Springs in 2004, displaying decent power potential. If Barmes can stay healthy and produce at a 2005 pace, he could have limited value in deeper mixed leagues.

The Rockies lineup could also get a boost from any kind of production at the position. Tulowitzki, hitting predominately second in front of first baseman Todd Helton and outfielder Matt Holliday, had a miserable .226 on-base percentage. Obviously one wouldn't expect this kind of a slump for a player like Tulowitzki to extend throughout an entire season, but moves were already being made to drop the shortstop to the bottom of the order.

Nix may be recalled at some point as Barmes slides over to short. However, look for the Rockies to go with a combination of infielders Omar Quintanilla, Jon Herrera and Jeff Baker to fill in at second base for the time being. None of them figure to have any real value, though Baker might warrant a look in NL-only leagues.

As for Tulowitzki owners, some replacements could be Cincinnati Reds infielder Jeff Keppinger or Seattle Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. Both can give you a boost in batting average and runs but neither hit for much power. Milwaukee Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy is another candidate after being abandoned in many leagues following his early struggles. Hardy hit 26 homers with 80 RBIs last year, and his 73 strikeouts in 592 at-bats may be a positive sign that he's more likely to break out of a slump since he puts the ball in play.

No matter how long Tulowitzki is out he's good enough to stash on your DL. This is a tough decision for managers to make with a guy that could be out for a couple months. However, the managers that win are often the ones that make room for these guys after they've been ditched by their drafting team. Tulowitzki is a fantastic all-around hitter at a position that still lacks much offensive depth.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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