Impact Analysis: Oakland Raiders RBs

May 1, 2008 @ 15:08:03

By Kostas Bolos
Edited by Herija C. Green

The Oakland Raiders surprised few when they selected University of Arkansas running back Darren McFadden with their first-round pick, No. 4 overall, in this past weekend's NFL Draft. Granted, the position was not considered a need for the Raiders, who already possessed a crowded backfield with the likes of running backs Justin Fargas, Dominic Rhodes, LaMont Jordan and Michael Bush. Not to mention, Oakland ranked sixth in the NFL last season in rushing offense. 

However, McFadden, a two-time recipient of the Doak Walker Award as the nation's top collegiate running back, was simply too tempting for Raiders managing general partner Al Davis to pass up. McFadden possesses the size and blazing speed that Davis so dearly covets in pro prospects. In addition to rushing for 4,590 yards and 41 touchdowns during his Arkansas career, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound McFadden also posted a time of 4.33 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, which all but sealed his future in Silver and Black.

Now that Davis has landed his prized offensive dynamo, the question remains as to how head coach Lane Kiffin plans to incorporate McFadden into a rather talented and deep backfield.

The backfield situation

The situation became somewhat less murky after the Raiders decided to cut ties with Rhodes Monday, April 28, by releasing the veteran. The team could also soon release Jordan, who has proven to be little more than a high-priced free-agent bust during his tenure in Oakland. As a result, expect the Raiders backfield to consist of Fargas, McFadden and Bush come Week 1 versus the Denver Broncos.

Despite his status as a high first-round pick and potential franchise back, do not look for McFadden to start initially, which could hurt his 2008 fantasy value somewhat. That job, at least early on, is expected to belong to Fargas. 

Fargas, a nice fantasy free-agent pickup for owners in 2007, appeared to carve a niche for himself as an NFL running back under the zone blocking scheme devised by offensive coordinator Greg Knapp and offensive line coach Tom Cable. The former University of Southern California product rushed for 1,009 yards with a 4.5 yards-per-carry average in just 14 games last season. He did not take over the starting duties for the team until midway through the season, but he nevertheless is a hard-nosed downhill rusher that is a good fit in Oakland's system.

Fargas is not a traditional feature NFL back by any means. However, expect him to receive the majority of carries within the offense, particularly in early-down situations as he is capable of consistently generating positive yardage on first down. It is conceivable to expect 15-20 carries per contest from Fargas early in the season as Kiffin gradually breaks McFadden into the offense. Fargas' fantasy value entering this season doesn't figure to be as high as it was during the tail end of last season, but he is worth taking a flier on as a No. 3 fantasy running back.

Fargas' biggest deficiencies outside of his suspect durability are his lack of breakaway speed and big-play ability. He can clearly move the chains for an offense, but he has not often delivered the big play and is not a touchdown-scoring machine to say the least (Fargas had just four touchdowns in 2007).

Enter McFadden.

How Kiffin plans to use McFadden is anyone's guess, though speculation has been rampant as to how he could be featured. McFadden's versatility lends him to being used in a myriad of ways. He could be used as a pure runner out of the I-formation; he could line up out wide as a wide receiver; he could even take snaps behind center as a quarterback, as he did at times at Arkansas. The possibilities are almost limitless.

However, Kiffin has been quick to acknowledge that McFadden's development as a pro running back will be a gradual one - news that doesn't bode well for prospective fantasy owners.

Don't look, according to Kiffin, for McFadden to be used in many gimmick plays during his rookie campaign. Instead, he is expected to keep it simple with the 20-year-old. Look for McFadden to serve as a change-of-pace back to Fargas, possibly on second-and-long and third-and-long situations. His workload should increase as the season progresses, as was the case with Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson a year ago. However, initially, he likely will not see more than 10-15 touches per game, with his biggest contribution likely to come as a receiver out of the backfield. His prowess as a receiver should aid second-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell's development in the passing game.

As a result, don't overrate McFadden come Draft Day. His talents are rare, indeed, but the situation he finds himself in may not be as fantasy-friendly. For now, he should be considered a No. 3 running back or flex position player with huge upside, particularly in point-per-reception leagues. Look for McFadden to emerge as a viable No. 2 fantasy back by season's end.

The wild card in the Raiders backfield, believe it or not, may be Bush.

Oakland had high hopes when they selected the University of Louisville product in the fourth round a year ago, but he sat out his rookie campaign rehabbing a broken leg suffered in college. Bush should be ready to go this year and could emerge as the team's No. 3 running back should Jordan be released, as expected. If Bush can return to his Louisville form - a big, punishing back with deceptive speed - he could find himself in the rotation at running back, possibly as a short-yardage and goal-line specialist.

Fantasy outlook

As previously mentioned, Fargas should remain the primary back for the time being and has decent value as a No. 3 back. McFadden clearly has substantial upside, but he should only be drafted with the expectation of No. 3 fantasy back production. He could emerge as midrange No. 2 over the course of the season, but that is far from a guarantee. Resist the temptation to spend a draft choice on him in the first four rounds as he would represent a better value after that point. If you choose to draft him, be prepared to spend as high as a late second-round pick to acquire this part-time player.

Owners should take a wait-and-see approach with Bush as he has little-to-no fantasy value at this time. An injury to either Fargas (who has been prone to injuries throughout his career) or McFadden could bump him up the depth chart, but unless that happens he is better suited for a spot on the waiver wire.

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Kostas Bolos
Bolos has been a KFFL Hot Off the Wire Analyst and contributor since 2006.

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