Impact Analysis: Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

April 30, 2008 @ 15:34:11

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Richard Garcia

New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada (shoulder) was placed on the 15-day disabled list for the first time of his career Monday, April 28. For the Yankees, it could not come at a worse time. New York has already seen shortstop Derek Jeter miss some time, as well as first baseman Jason Giambi. Utility infielder Wilson Betemit is also on the DL, and the placement of third baseman Alex Rodriguez (quadriceps) on the disabled list a day after Posada complicated the injury mess was. This latest move further depletes a lineup that was supposed to make up for some of the team's pitching woes.

The move of Posada was a given, as he struggled with his throwing shoulder while trying to avoid the DL. He sat out a few games, but when he was in the lineup, opposing teams were running at will and further exploited a rocky pitching staff. Besides Posada's offensive numbers, his leadership and management of the Yankees pitchers will be sorely missed.

The game plan

The gamble New York took when designating veteran catcher Chad Moeller for assignment just before Posada went on the DL didn't backfire. Moeller admirably filled in for Posada and catcher Jose Molina during the past few weeks (.350 batting average in six games). Moeller cleared waivers, declined an assignment to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and signed a free-agent deal with the Yankees. Journeyman backup catcher Chris Stewart, who initially took Posada's roster spot, was optioned to Scranton. The Yankees recalled reliever Chris Britton from their top farm club one day after sending him down.

Last year's acquisition of Molina looms large. He is expected to pick up the majority of starts, while Moeller becomes his backup. Molina gives the team the best replacement option it has had in recent seasons.

With a multitude of doctors reviewing Posada's MRI results to determine the extent of any strain or tear in the shoulder, the timeframe for Posada's return is still speculative. However, early indications are that the damage to his shoulder is not expected to be season-threatening. Molina is a good short-term option for the Yankees, but he has not been a starter for a few seasons, and he will be hard-pressed to come close to Posada's production over the past three seasons.

Table: Posada's Statistics (2005-07)

Yr	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG
2005	474	67	19	71	.262
2006	465	65	23	93	.277
2007	506	91	20	90	.338

It is was not expected for Posada to reach his output of last season, in which he set career highs in batting average, hits (171) and on-base percentage (.426). His loss in the lineup may have a trickle-down affect, forcing manager Joe Girardi to juggle healthy power hitters - outfielders Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu as well as Giambi.

From a defensive standpoint, Molina will try to give the same kind of calming influence Posada provided to the pitching staff, especially struggling young starters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Certainly, the Yankees bench becomes thinner with Molina pushed into starting duty, but the addition of Moeller should help to offset that.

If Posada's injury is indeed a tear that will need long-term rest or even ends his season, the Yankees may look to obtain a veteran catcher to start and relegate Molina back to being a reserve. However, with very few options currently available, the team may very well see how Moeller performs in spot duty and how Molina holds up as a starter catching.

Possible replacements

Oakland Athletics catcher Kurt Suzuki is quietly having a solid campaign. Batting leadoff for the A's, Suzuki is batting .290 with eight RBIs. He could be a long-term option for fantasy owners, but beware; he is not a good source of home runs or stolen bases. In 213 at-bats last season, Suzuki hit seven home runs and stole zero bases.

Texas Rangers catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia was recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma Saturday, April 25, and is expected to see a lot of playing time. He is expected to split time with catcher Gerald Laird; however, manager Ron Washington stated that he was brought up as a catcher and will see a lot of playing time. In seven at-bats this season, he has two hits and one RBI; in many leagues, he has eligibility at catcher and first base. In 308 at-bats between the Atlanta Braves and Rangers in 2007, Saltalamacchia hit 11 home runs and knocked in 33 runs.

Seattle Mariners designated hitter Jeff Clement is another intriguing option. He was recalled by the team Wednesday, April 30, from Triple-A Tacoma after hitting .397 with five home runs and 20 RBIs in 23 games played. Clement is an intriguing catcher option with a ton of talent at the plate, but fantasy owners need to make sure that he has eligibility at the position before plucking him off the waiver wire.

Bottom line

Posada's absence, plus the loss of Rodriguez, places more pressure on Abreu, Giambi, Matsui and even Jeter to put up better power numbers than normally expected. An extended absence could drag down fantasy projections for those four and drastically alter Posada's overall production.

Even if Posada stays on the DL for just the 15-day period, the shoulder injury could linger all season and greatly reduce Posada's playing time. In this case, realistic production could be 15 home runs, 70 runs scored, 70 RBIs and a .280 batting average. However, that would seem to be a best-case scenario.

With test results on Posada's shoulder still ongoing, fantasy owners should utilize an existing backup catcher if available, or look to obtain a No. 1 catcher in a trade. However, given the dearth of quality catchers out there, owners will need to closely examine these possibilities; it's also not wise to give up something of great value for a catcher unless it's a stud. Fantasy leaguers should hold on to Posada until a final verdict is cast; he's only droppable if it's determined that he'll miss most or all of the season. Even if he returns shortly, it appears the injury could linger throughout the season

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)