Impact Analysis: Max Scherzer, Arizona Diamondbacks

April 30, 2008 @ 07:45:56

By Jeff Freels
Edited by Herija C. Green

Sunday, April 27, the Arizona Diamondbacks called up 23-year-old right-handed pitcher and top prospect Max Scherzer from their Triple-A Tucson affiliate and announced that he would be working out of the team's bullpen. However, after an impressive debut in relief against the Houston Astros Tuesday, April 29, Scherzer has been launched into the starting rotation.

He is expected to be in the starting rotation until further notice and is expected to make his first start against the Philadelphia Phillies Monday, May 5. According to Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin, it was a short meeting between him and Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes to determine the future of Scherzer. He is expected to replace Edgar Gonzalez, who will go to the bullpen.

With the Diamondbacks' relief pitchers stretched thin in the last few games and facing the possibility that pitcher Micah Owings could miss his next scheduled start Friday, May 2, the Diamondbacks felt as though the promotion of Scherzer was justified at this point despite concerns over his development. Byrnes told the Arizona Republic, "There are a lot of issues, but right now the most compelling issue is we need him in the big leagues. We just have a tired bullpen."

Recently named the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Week, Scherzer was dominating Triple-A hitters to the tune of a 1.17 ERA and 0.65 WHIP over 23 innings. Even more impressive, he had recorded 38 strikeouts against just three walks.

Drafted 11th overall by the D-backs in 2006 out of the University of Missouri, Scherzer held out for 11 months on the advice of super-agent Scott Boras. Scherzer finally signed with Arizona on the eve of the 2007 draft and was assigned to the Diamondbacks' Class-A Advanced affiliate in Visalia. There he managed a 0.53 ERA, 0.41 WHIP, and a 30-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 17 innings. Promoted to Double-A Mobile, Scherzer finished out the 2007 season with a 4-4 record, a 3.91 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings at that level. He also walked 40, a stark contrast to the pinpoint control he has shown at his other stops.

When Scherzer is in command of his pitches, he brings to bear a three-pitch arsenal that features a sinking fastball coming in at 93-94 mph and topping out at 97. He also has an excellent slider and a good changeup, though his control of these pitches is only a recent development and could potentially desert him at any time. Like most young power pitchers, Scherzer is likely to be both dominant and erratic at times upon his promotion to the majors.

Positives

Scherzer's best assets right now are his fastball and his mentality. Asked to improve his secondary pitches out of training camp this spring, Scherzer has shown an intelligent determination to do just that. Called a "competitor" who "was aware of the things he needed to do to be successful in the big leagues" by Diamondbacks GM Byrnes, Scherzer's rapid progression through the ranks of the minor leagues and his ability to make adjustments successfully portend good things for his major league career.

Negatives

The biggest problem facing Scherzer at this point could be a lack of starting opportunities. As long as Diamondbacks starters Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson and Owings stay healthy (a questionable possibility considering Johnson's recent history), then Scherzer's path to the rotation is effectively blocked. The fifth spot in the rotation is his for now, but if he struggles, Gonzalez is always waiting in the wings. Left-handed pitcher Doug Davis is targeting May 9 for a return from surgery related to thyroid cancer. The No. 5 spot in the rotation was his before his placement on the disabled list. Ultimately, there is no guarantee that Scherzer will be in the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. However, he certainly offers the most upside of the three candidates.

Fantasy Outlook

That move makes Scherzer a viable, albeit potentially short-term addition in all but the shallowest mixed leagues.

Other than his youth and the possible struggles he could endure as he adjusts to the major league game, the biggest obstacle to Scherzer's permanent role in the Diamondbacks rotation could be the return of Davis. Owners should be aware of this possibility, but given Scherzer's minor league numbers and dominance in his major league debut, it is a risk worth taking.

That qualifications having been made, fantasy owners with pitching needs are advised to pick Scherzer up immediately based on his potential and strong debut. With his high strikeout potential and the winning ways of the Diamondbacks so far this season, Scherzer could be of benefit across the board to managers. As long as you are prepared to weather his expected bouts of inconsistency, Scherzer could be a valuable addition to your team.

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