Impact Analysis: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

April 21, 2008 @ 14:59:30

By Keith Hernandez
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

After the year he had last year, it is very surprising to see Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander struggle the way he has this year. Granted, it is early in the season, but he has not looked like the same ace that posted 35 wins the past two seasons.

In 2008, Verlander has a 7.03 ERA, a record of 0-3 and a 14-to-12 strikeout to walk ratio in 24 1/3 innings. These numbers are disappointing when compared to his totals the past two season. The past two seasons he has posted an impressive 35-15 record with 307 strikeouts compared to just 127 walks. The slow start to his 2008 season has fantasy owners just a little worried.

Detroit's early funk

The Tigers offense has not exactly provided the club's No. 1 starter with the run support that he would like. In his three decisions, the team was only able to muster three total runs. Verlander surrendered 15 earned runs in those decisions, but nevertheless, it is tough to win games in the major leagues with only one or two runs.

Before the recent revival of the Tigers offense, the team was in a terrible slump at the plate. Third baseman Miguel Cabrera was hitting .213 with only five RBIs in 47 at-bats. Catcher Ivan Rodriguez was also hitting .213 with five RBIs in 47 at-bats. Shortstop Edgar Renteria was hitting .268 with no home runs and just four RBIs in 56 at-bats. Outfielder Gary Sheffield is still mired in a slump; he's hitting .192 with just two RBIs in 52 at-bats. With these kinds of numbers, it was no surprise that the team was struggling.

With little run support, a pitcher can often feel like he has to be perfect to give his team a chance to win. The Tigers' struggles have been magnified because of the media scrutiny of their club, one that was favored by more than a few outlets to be World Series contenders. Such perceived pressure can often have a drastically negative effect on a starter. The team's offense cannot take all the blame for Verlander's uncharacteristic early season funk, though.

Verlander's issues

In Verlander's last start against the Cleveland Indians, and in fact, in any of his last three starts, he hasn't demonstrated great command, particularly with his fastball. In that last outing, he struck out only one hitter, the fewest strikeouts in any of his starts that lasted more than three innings in the past year; he also hit two batters. This is surprising considering the fact that he is typically a fairly effective strikeout artist. As with any other pitcher, when Verlander walks hitters, he gets himself into trouble. Strikeouts can help a hurler bail himself out, though.

It appears Verlander is having problems not only with his fastball but with his slider as well. He has said that his arm angle has been a little bit low in his four starts this year. His lower arm angle has led to a somewhat flat slider, as opposed to his usually sharp and devastating slider. Verlander's inability to locate has come back to haunt him, too. In his last three starts, he has issued 11 of his 12 walks. He has also allowed one home run in each of his four outings. If you miss your spot, big-league hitters will make you pay. Verlander has been working on his arm angle to fix the control of his slider in side sessions, and the expectation is that he'll correct it. In a recent workout, he reportedly looked impressive.

Another area of concern is the decreased velocity on his fastball. His fastball has been clocked at 89 to 93 miles per hour. The average fan might expect to see his fastball clocked at 96 to 100 mph. Sometimes, decreased velocity on a fastball is an indication of an injury. This should be monitored closely in case it becomes an issue, but there has been no other indication that Verlander has any health issues. It should be noted that Verlander can throw that hard, but he doesn't ordinarily do so - only when he's reaching back for a little something extra, as they say. Typically, his heat registers in the low 90s.

In his two full seasons in the big leagues, Verlander has not been tabbed as a slow starter. In April of 2006, he struck out 21 hitters while walking 10 and tallying an ERA of 3.52. In April of 2007, he struck out 21 batters while walking 14 and recording an ERA of 2.79. With no history of slow starts in his young career, it could be considered a concern for the 25-year-old hurler in 2008.

This top-tier fantasy pitcher is known for his electrifying fastball and knee-buckling slider. The majority of pundits would agree that he has dominant stuff. His stamina also has been a strong point in the young pitchers career. He has started 62 games and pitched a total of 387 2/3 innings in the last two years, including a no-hitter last year against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Some observers have argued that Verlander has pitched better than his numbers would indicate, though. Detroit's bullpen has allowed all seven of the baserunners it has inherited from Verlander to score. True, they're Verlander's responsibility because he allowed them to reach base; however, the bullpen's job is to prevent at least a few of them from crossing home plate. The Tigers bullpen has a .274 batting average against, tied for 11th in the AL entering play Monday, April 21. The unit also has a 5.04 ERA, 11th in the league.

Fantasy outlook

It has been a rough start to the season for Verlander. However, he should still be considered a high-end fantasy pitcher. Fantasy owners should look to hold on to him. They might want to consider benching him until his performance improves. However, doing so means that they run the risk of missing out on the outstanding starts he's capable of; Verlander should put up the stat lines that can correct his, and a fantasy owner's, poor numbers to start the season. Such a strategy would appear to be unwise.

It's a little early to attempt to trade Verlander in your fantasy league. He is still considered a top-tier starting pitcher, so one should look to receive nothing less than another top-tier player in return. Considering his low value at this stage, that isn't likely to happen. Verlander's desire and hard work in an effort to change his luck are a positive sign. Look for him to rebound from his slow start and turn things around, especially with the awakening of the team's offense. He is looking like he could be a two-start pitcher this week, with matchups against the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He was 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts against the Rangers last year. That matchup sounds like an opportunity to get back on track.

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Keith Hernandez

Keith, an editor with KFFL, joined the team as a Hot off the Wire analyst in 2008 and has been playing fantasy sports since 2005. He is involved in MLB, NFL and NASCAR content. He graduated from the University of California-San Diego in 2005 with a B.A. in Communications and was a four-year starter as a member of the baseball program.

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