Impact Analysis: C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians

April 21, 2008 @ 13:28:47

By Keith Hernandez
Edited by Jason Hoffmann

Cleveland Indians starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia is scratching his head after the start he has been off to in 2008. A year ago, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball, winning the American League Cy Young Award. This year, he is looking like he could possibly be the worst pitcher in baseball.

The 27-year-old southpaw is looking to bounce back from a rough start. He has tallied an 0-3 record while surrendering 32 hits and 27 runs in just 18 innings pitched. In this span, he has also walked 18 hitters and notched an ERA of 13.50. It is the first time in his career that he has given up nine runs in back-to-back outings.

Regardless of the numbers, there seems to be something wrong with Sabathia this year. There may be a couple factors influencing his poor pitching performance in the early going.

Early season struggles

Sabathia is not the only Indians pitcher that is struggling. As of Monday, April 21, the team's starting rotation has the fourth-highest ERA in the American League (4.47) while the bullpen owns the ALs second-highest ERA (5.23).

Fellow starting pitcher Paul Byrd hasn't fared much better this year, allowing 25 hits and four home runs in 20 1/3 innings pitched. He has also walked four batters and posted a 4.43 ERA. With the Indians pitching staff struggling as a unit, Sabathia could be pressing to deliver as the team's ace.

The Indians pitching struggles aside, the offense has not been playing its part by providing run support. Through the team's first 19 games, the offense is ranked 11th in the AL with 79 runs scored (17 in their first two games) and last in batting average (.235). They also own the Major League's third worst slugging percentage (.352).

In Sabathia's three decisions this year, the team has given him only 10 runs of support. However, the Indians scored seven runs in his third start, which ended in a 9-7 loss.

Injuries do not seem to be the problem for him as his fastball is still being clocked in the 93-96 mph range. A loss in velocity would almost surely suggest an injury, but his velocity seems to be fine. Instead, control issues might be the biggest factor in Sabathia's early season funk.

Sabathia himself has already acknowledged the fact that he is having trouble commanding both sides of the plate. He has already walked 14 hitters in 18 innings pitched after he walked only 37 batters all of last year (covering 241 innings). When he is throwing strikes, his pitches are finding too much of the plate, especially when he is ahead of opposing hitters. His opponents have an average of .415 on balls put in play and are currently hitting for an astounding .390 average against.

It is interesting to note Sabathia's pitch selection in his first four starts of 2008. In his second start, he threw his slider only 14 percent of the time. His third start saw him throw his slider only 15 percent of the time. Last year, he used his slider 22 percent of the time. It seems he has lost some confidence in his slider, which has led to less swings and misses from the opposition. As a result, he has given up an unusual amount of hits to hitters with 0-2 counts.

Many people are eager to point out that this is a contract year for Sabathia. He is eligible to become a free agent next season after turning down a five-year, $90 million offer during the offseason. Although Sabathia denies it is affecting his performance, the fact that he is in a contract year should be taken into consideration. However, players normally in a contract year usually perform at a higher level than they have in seasons past. This does not appear to be the case for Sabathia, who is virtually losing money with every pitch he is throwing.

Fantasy outlook

Turning to the fantasy side of things, fantasy owners of Sabathia may be tempted to dump him. This would not be a wise decision, as the left-hander seems to just be going through some control issues in the early going. However, this could be a perfect time to work a trade for him.

Sabathia has been through this before - in 2005 he had an eight-game stretch where he went 1-5 with a 9.00 ERA. Immediately following that stretch, he bounced back by winning nine of his last 11 decisions. This should give fantasy owners reason to believe that Sabathia can eventually turn things around. If you do decide to trade him in your league, look to receive a top-tier pitcher or position player in return for the hurler. In case Sabathia has a couple more rough outings in the near future, you may want to consider benching him for a start or two.

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Keith Hernandez

Keith, an editor with KFFL, joined the team as a Hot off the Wire analyst in 2008 and has been playing fantasy sports since 2005. He is involved in MLB, NFL and NASCAR content. He graduated from the University of California-San Diego in 2005 with a B.A. in Communications and was a four-year starter as a member of the baseball program.

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