Impact Analysis: Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners

April 18, 2008 @ 18:36:48

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

The first time he missed a start this year piqued your interest. The second time, you became nervous. Now you have reason to be worried as the Seattle Mariners placed starting pitcher and staff ace Erik Bedard (hip) on the 15-day disabled list. The move was retroactive to Wednesday, April 9.

The first time in question came Sunday, April 6, when Bedard had his homecoming in Baltimore postponed due to inflammation in his left hip. He made up this start two days later but labored through it, giving up five runs (three earned) over six innings. This was the last time he would be able to take the mound in live action. He was scratched from his scheduled start Sunday, April 13. He has pitched only 11 innings this year, giving up six runs (four earned) and walking eight. Location has been a problem for Bedard this year as evidenced by the three home runs (out of just eight hits) he has given up.

He was also off in his other start this year, struggling to make it through five innings. He allowed just one run in that start against the Texas Rangers March 31 but threw 106 pitches (only 59 for strikes), including 97 pitches over the first four innings.

The team has called up former Rangers first-round draft pick R.A. Dickey to take Bedard's next start Friday, April 18. Dickey is a knuckleballer who is in his first season with the Mariners. He has one appearance this year, giving up zero runs and striking out one batter in one inning. It will, however, be his first start since 2006.

Missing an ace

Bedard was acquired this past offseason from the Baltimore Orioles in a deal that sent five players back East, including top prospect outfielder Adam Jones and relief pitcher George Sherrill. Of course, Bedard was considered worth it at the time. He was coming off a season that garnered him some Cy Young Award interest, finishing with a 13-5 record and a 3.16 ERA. His strikeout rate (10.93 per nine innings) was among the best for starters in the league and set an Orioles franchise record. His season ended up getting cut short as he went down with an oblique injury, which also cost him any realistic shot at the Cy Young. Before going down with his hip injury this year, Bedard was expected to be part of a revamped Mariners rotation that could challenge the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the top spot in their division.

Some seemed to forget, however, that Bedard had just one great season in the majors and has never pitched well at Safeco Field. In five career starts in Seattle, Bedard has a 5.20 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP and a 1-2 record. Still, the left-hander gave the team a valuable top starter with Felix Hernandez still developing.

Bedard's injury is the result of inflammation in his left hip. Like all left-handers, he places his body weight on this hip during his throwing motion. Any discomfort in his side throws off his motion, therefore limiting the effectiveness of his delivery. His hip has also been a problem for him in the past. During his first full professional season in 2000, Bedard suffered from hip inflammation, but it had not been a problem since then before his latest issue.

He has been playing catch this week and is scheduled to throw a bullpen Friday, April 18. An encouraging sign has come from the hip's improvement since his last start. Bedard has said the inflammation is going down and he is taking it day-by-day. Whether it lingers will not be known until he makes his next start.

Bedard's injury leaves a huge hole in the Mariners rotation. They have used reliever Cha Seung Baek to replace him once, but Baek struggled in his lone start. Dickey will get the next shot; however, he sports a record of 16-19 with an ERA of 5.70 over his 267 innings pitched in the majors. The pitching staff will have to be better in general; they currently rank in the bottom half of the league in team ERA and WHIP, both stats that could be significantly lower with Bedard starting.

Fantasy outlook

Don't hit the panic button just yet. Bedard has been able to throw the ball this week and could return soon if his bullpen session goes well. He is eligible to come off the disabled list and start Thursday, April 24, which would force him to miss just one more start. However, owners should be wary because the last time they rested him, the injury did not go away. This could be a sign that something else is going on in his hip. If he makes it through his next start without any problems, this could be nothing more than a small hiccup. If he is still suffering some discomfort, then it might linger with him all season.

There is a good chance Bedard was one of the first pitchers off the board in your draft. If you own him, stash him on the disabled list for now as he still has too much value to discard. If you don't own him, it might be an idea to start inquiring about his availability, but only if you can buy low. Owners might be willing to part with him on the cheap if they feel he is not going to last. If he does return healthy, Bedard should be considered a top starter for any fantasy team.

His replacement, Dickey, has little value. He does not have a track record in the big leagues with his last start coming two years ago. Do not pick him up unless you're desperate in deep AL-only leagues.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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