Impact Analysis: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox

April 17, 2008 @ 01:00:37

By Sam Reed
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Not long after he arrived in the Boston Red Sox dugout in 2003, designated hitter David Ortiz was adorned with a nickname that stuck. Known as "Big Papi," Ortiz has been a key cog in a potent Sox lineup for the last five years, averaging 41.6 home runs and 128.4 runs batted in since 2003.

Is it time for a nickname change? This April, Ortiz hasn't been too "big," hitting only .121 with one extra-base hit (a home run) in 58 at-bats through Wednesday, April 16. Is it simply a prolonged slump, or something more?

Big Papi, small results

April has never been Ortiz's best month. A career .287 hitter, his career .267 batting average in April is his second-worst month for the statistic besides August (.263). He pulled a similar stunt last season; as of April 13, 2007, Ortiz was hitting .235 with two home runs and seven RBIs. He then pounded four long balls in his next eight games, raising his average to .300 in the process and putting him well on the way to another Big Papi-like year.

Age might be more than just a number when you're a 6-foot-4, 230-pound slugger, though. Now 32 years old, Ortiz is coming off a nagging knee injury and has never been the sveltest in a uniform. Advancing age coupled with a leg injury that would hurt one's ability to drive the ball if it were still a problem is not a recipe for success.

More disconcerting is the pure lack of power and authority in which balls have left Ortiz's bat this season. While his strikeout rate has not increased dramatically (one strikeout every 4.5 at-bats in 2008 versus a career rate of one strikeout every 4.7 at-bats), Ortiz has managed a lone home run to go with just six singles this season. Much of his weak performance has come against right-handed pitchers, who are holding Ortiz to a .120 average in 50 at-bats. It's an alarming figure given his .294 career average against righties.

Reasons for hope

Red Sox manager Terry Francona isn't likely to panic this early in the season, although he did choose to give Ortiz a mental health day Sunday, April 13.

As long as the Red Sox can continue putting up respectable offensive numbers without Ortiz's help, Francona should be content batting him third, with outfielder Manny Ramirez, possibly motivated by his impending free-agent status, hitting fourth. Ortiz could benefit from a red-hot Ramirez, as opposing teams may need to be aggressive in the strike zone to Ortiz, not wanting to put more base runners on in front of Ramirez.

Also consider the track record for someone like Ortiz. Players typically don't produce the way he has over five consecutive years only to fall off the map the next. His balky knee, which required offseason arthroscopic knee surgery, has been thought by many to be a cause of his slump. Ortiz insists that he's fine and that the problem is mental, not physical. If his health isn't a concern, there is little reason to believe that a 30-home run, 100-RBI season isn't in store.

Fantasy outlook

If Red Sox Nation isn't panicking, should fantasy owners also be content standing pat? Unless word of a major injury were to surface, Ortiz - someone who would have taken a second- or third-round pick to acquire - isn't going be dropped from a fantasy roster. In fact, those looking to buy low might inquire to see if the asking price for the slugger has gone down.

Most media outlets, baseball minds and fantasy owners alike think that Ortiz will start producing soon. The slow start coupled with increasing age and physical questions suggests that his numbers could be on their way down, though. Oritz's big blasts and clutch play likely still will be seen throughout the season. However, reduced expectations - think .280-35-110 - sound like they may be in order rather than one counting on a return to the .300-47-148 line he produced in 2005. It's understandable to want to bench Big Papi, even though one would risk missing out on his production if and when he gets going.

There are, however, a few short-term options that fantasy owners could look to until Ortiz awakens from his offseason slumber. If Ortiz is eligible at first base in your league and is occupying that spot or a corner infield slot in your lineup, consider looking to your waiver wire. There are a handful of less experienced players who are readily available in many 10- and 12-team leagues.

The Florida Marlins' Mike Jacobs is off to a hot start with a .315 average, six home runs and 12 RBIs. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim's Casey Kotchman is hitting .345 and may be on the verge of a breakthrough in the power department with four homers and 12 RBIs. The Arizona Diamondbacks' Conor Jackson is another player with budding power; he's hitting .308 with two home runs and 13 RBIs. All are off to productive starts and hitting in prime spots in their respective batting orders.

The larger-than-life Ortiz will always be Big Papi in Boston and beyond, but it's not out of line to think that the big production that used to accompany the name is slowly shrinking.

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Sam Reed
Reed has been a KFFL contributor since April 2008.

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