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Z - Impact Analysis

Lowell and out in Boston

April 16, 2008 @ 07:55:08

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By Fraser Lovat
Edited by Richard Garcia

Boston Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell (thumb) injured his left thumb in a game against the Detroit Tigers Wednesday, April 9, after diving for a ball. Lowell's X-Ray was negative and showed no break in his thumb. The Red Sox placed Lowell on the 15-day disabled list a day later with a sprained left thumb.

On April 11, Lowell, who was encouraged there wasn't a big tear in the ligament, received the MRI results and will have his left thumb in a splint for a week; he could return in two weeks. However, the doctors originally stated that Lowell could be out two to four weeks and that 15 days was a best-case scenario. The amount of time that he will miss depends on how much the swelling goes down. The injury is believed to be worse than the thumb injury he suffered last season, which caused him to miss three games.

Lowell has had a history of injuries, but none were as serious as the one he suffered in 1999. Less than three weeks after the Florida Marlins acquired Lowell from the New York Yankees that year, he underwent surgery for testicular cancer to remove a mass found during a routine physical. He would play in only 97 games that season. Lowell has been a lock to get 500 or more at-bats each season, reaching that mark in seven of his nine seasons in the majors.

Lowell starts off slowly

Lowell is entering his 11th season of major league service and his third with the Red Sox. Last season, Lowell set career-highs in average (.324), RBIs (120) and hits (191), while hitting 21 home runs.

Lowell had two factors going for him last season that likely contributed to last season being one of his best. He was batting in the powerful BoSox lineup, and he was in a contract year. Needless to say, Lowell received the big contract in the offseason, signing a four-year $50 million deal.

This season, however, he has struggled early. His stats resemble that of an American League pitcher hitting in a National League ballpark. In 30 at-bats, he's holding onto a .200 average, with zero home runs, zero RBIs, three walks and five strikeouts.

However, fantasy owners shouldn't panic. He has hit 20-plus home runs in six out of the previous 10 seasons and has appeared in 140 games in seven of the last eight seasons, including four straight seasons of at least 150 games played.

Who fills in?

Teammate Kevin Youkilis filled in for Lowell at third base in five of the team's six games that Lowell has been on the DL. During that time, he has recorded eight hits in 18 at-bats, including one home run and seven RBIs. He is hitting .330 with a .408 on-base percentage. He is likely unavailable in most deep and shallow leagues.

While Youkilis plays every day for the Sox, the team has two options to fill in the void at the corner Youkilis doesn't cover on game day. First baseman Sean Casey is the likely candidate to cover the bag at first when "Youk" is at third. In 25 at-bats this season, Casey is hitting .280 with five RBIs. Casey is likely available in most league formats.

The other option comes in the form of a rookie, shortstop Jed Lowrie. Lowrie received his first start of the season at third base Tuesday, April 15. He went 1-for-4 in that contest and became the first Sox player since Merl Combs in 1947 to knock in three runs in his major league debut. It's unclear how much time Lowrie will receive, but he could see more playing time with his versatility to play the left side of the infield. Manager Terry Francona believes that Lowrie can play all over the infield, and he said that the club didn't bring one of its top prospects up to sit. Lowrie can hit for average (.291 lifetime in the minors), but he provides minimal pop or speed on the base paths.

Fantasy outlook

In very deep mixed leagues or AL-only leagues, Casey could be a decent option when Youkilis is playing third. Lowrie shouldn't be considered yet, except in AL-only leagues as a prospective pickup. Infielder Alex Cora (elbow) has landed on the DL, too, so the Sox may need Lowrie for a few weeks. If Casey and Lowrie aren't sufficient pickups for your fantasy lineups, there are a couple of players that have been having good starts to the 2008 season.

Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds and Chicago White Sox third baseman Joe Crede would be excellent options, but they probably are not available in your league.

Detroit Tigers third baseman/outfielder Brandon Inge has benefited the most from outfielder Curtis Granderson's (finger) stint on the DL. Inge is batting .282 with two home runs and leads the team in RBIs (nine). He could be available in many mixed leagues. Fantasy owners should keep in mind that he will likely lost playing time when Granderson returns, although he currently doesn't have a timetable.

Florida Marlins third baseman Jorge Cantu is a likely candidate to be available in shallow mixed leagues. He is batting .255 with two home runs and five RBIs; he's hitting in the fifth and sixth slots in the lineup. Cantu could help to ease the pain at third, especially considering the struggles Lowell has gone through early on in the season.

Fantasy owners drafted Lowell because he seemed like a solid consolation prize for those who missed out on the top options at the position. However, fantasy owners shouldn't consider dropping him at this time. If you have Lowell, stash him in a DL spot and take the wait-and-see approach. Lowell has been too solid in his first two seasons with the Sox to come back and haunt you if you release him.



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Author Bio

Fraser Lovat
Fraser is a Hot off the Wire Analyst with KFFL and has been with the company since 2007.

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