Veteran Hernandez leading Twins' rotation

April 9, 2008 @ 04:52:51

By David Wysocki
Edited by Richard Garcia

What's in a spring anyway? It was as recent as March 16 when Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire stated he was not concerned with starting pitcher Livan Hernandez's 9.69 ERA this spring. After being named the Twins' opening day starter, Hernandez backed up his manager's statements by pitching a solid game at the Metrodome March 31, beating the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3-2.

Hernandez, a Cuban defector in 1995, allowed just two runs and seven hits in seven innings, throwing just 84 pitches in the process. Hernandez even hit 59 mph on his always devastating hook. He passed the torch to the great combo of relievers who can set 'em up and knock 'em down, Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan, to slam the door.

Hernandez followed up his opening day performance with a similar result, despite allowing four earned runs in seven innings of work. He picked up his second win in as many starts against a Kansas City Royals team that entered the game with a 3-1 record.

Possibly the oldest 33-year-old in baseball history, Hernandez was signed by the Twins Feb. 12 to an incentive-laden one-year deal. The move appears to be a solid one after Hernandez's first two games on the mound. For fantasy owners, however, it may not be the time to let Livan be the workhorse for your team.

Hernandez's recent shortcomings

Hernandez is coming off two especially poor big league seasons. In each of the past two years, he has failed to post an ERA below 4.80 and a WHIP below 1.50. While he has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, Hernandez's strikeout numbers have been crashing faster than the housing market since 2004. In 2007, he sat down 90 batters on strikes over 204 1/3 innings, down from the 186 he had in 2004 over 255 frames. On opening day, Hernandez picked up only one strikeout against the Angels. In his win against the Royals, he struck out two.

The 245-pound righty has gained a reputation over the years as being an innings-eater and a big-game pitcher. Overall, this reputation has substance. Between 1998 and 2007, Hernandez has thrown 200 or more innings in every season with the exception of 1999, when he came within one out of hitting that mark. These numbers, however, have also been falling since his first All-Star season in 2004.

Table: 2004-07 Statistics

Year	Team	W	L	CG	IP	SO	WHIP	ERA
2004	Montreal Expos	11	15	9	255	186	1.24	3.60
2005	Washington Nationals	15	10	2	246 1/3	147	1.43	3.98
2006	Washington/Arizona Diamondbacks	13	13	0	216	128	1.50	4.83
2007	Arizona	11	11	1	204 1/3	90	1.60	4.93

To add to the above table, Hernandez was known as a lock for five or more complete games and has reached that pinnacle twice in 1998 and 2004 with nine. In the past three seasons, however, Hernandez has just three complete games. It's safe to say that Hernandez is starting to feel the effects of all those innings pitched since making his first appearance for the Florida Marlins in 1996. His big-game reputation and 1997 World Series MVP Award seem to outshine his present-day fantasy value.

What Hernandez means to the Twins

The netting of Hernandez helps them protect 24-year-old starting pitcher Francisco Liriano (elbow), who sat out all of 2007 after undergoing elbow reconstructive surgery in November of 2006. Young hurlers like Boof Bonser, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey round out the bulk of the rotation. Hernandez undoubtedly adds a veteran presence to the mound, something the Twins lacked after they traded away starting pitcher Johan Santana to the New York Mets. Hernandez even reportedly on occasion positioned his infielders on opening day.

By moving to Minnesota, Hernandez moved into a more pitcher-friendly environment. In 2007, the Metrodome was a park that witnessed the third fewest runs per game and the fourth fewest home runs per game in the majors last season. In fact, the Twins' road ERA (4.50) was nearly three-quarters of a run higher than at home (3.83). The Metrodome is more brutal on right-handed power hitters, with a 343-foot fence down the line and a distance of 385 feet to left-center. Hitters from the left side of the plate have a distinct advantage, with a 327-foot short porch in right field. However, for Hernandez, who allowed 34 homers in 2007 - his highest total since allowing 37 in 1998 - the Metrodome should be a welcome site compared to Chase Field, the home of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Both of his starts this season have come at home, and he has yet to allow a home run in 14 innings pitched.

Fantasy outlook

Few fantasy leagues give points for innings pitched, but even if you are in one of those leagues, there's almost always a better option available than Hernandez. He will obviously have more value in AL-only leagues and probably shouldn't sniff any mixed leagues with the availability of free-agent pitching right now. Hernandez's mid-90s fastball is long gone, and the transition to a less pitcher-friendly American League could affect his ability to succeed this season. Hernandez has spent the majority of his career in the more pitcher-friendly National League and must now have to account for the designated hitter. The Central division contains the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox and revamped Kansas City Royals; those teams comprise the majority of the Twins' schedule and offer some of the scariest offenses in the league.

At this point Hernandez should only be a desperation pickup in mixed leagues and played only when he has a good matchup. He is likely available in a majority of mixed leagues. For AL-only leagues, Hernandez is a viable option, but he probably should be started when he has a solid matchup or when playing in the friendly confines of the Metrodome.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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