Headley left out in San Diego

April 4, 2008 @ 00:43:38

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green

Although playing in a pitchers' paradise didn't help, the San Diego Padres offense was horrible last year, ranking third-worst in both batting average and on-base percentage. With the addition of outfielder Jim Edmonds (calf) in center and a healthy outfielder Brian Giles (knee) in right, they could get a boost; however, it is the presence of top prospect Chase Headley and his big bat patrolling left field that has Padres fan salivating. However, despite a strong spring, Headley was sent to Triple-A Portland to open the season. That scenario means for the time being as Edmonds, Giles and outfielder Scott Hairston are set to be their three starters once Edmonds returns from the disabled list, which should be Saturday, April 5. Yet, all three are injury prone, which makes this a tricky situation for fantasy purposes. Edmonds has missed 97 games the past two years and Giles only returned to the outfield Friday, March 18, following offseason microfracture surgery on his knee. As for Hairston, the 27-year-old has spent time on the disabled list in each of the last three seasons.

Center field has been the key position as with Edmonds out, Hairston has been moved there, and outfielders Paul McAnulty and Jody Gerut have been used in left. This has happened early on with Edmonds on the disabled list for at least the first five games of the season. However, once Edmonds returns, the team will likely move Hairston back to left with McAnulty expected to be used in a reserve role at both corner outfield spots. It should be noted Edmonds is no lock to remain healthy the entire season and could return to the disabled list multiple times, something he has done in past seasons. Center field at PETCO Park is also one of the broadest in baseball and with Edmonds sporting one achy calf already he might not bring the stellar defense he has in the past to the position.

Hairston arrived from the Padres last July in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Although he spent some time on the disabled list, Hairston was a completely different player with the Padres, batting .287 while hitting eight home runs, knocking in 20 runs and scoring 16 down the stretch. Working against him is a .245 career average and just 24 home runs and 67 RBIs in 232 games entering the 2008 season. He might be better suited for a platoon or reserve role, though he has gotten off to a hot start with six hits (including two home runs) in his first 15 at-bats. His versatility means he can cover center with Edmonds out, or even right field if Giles - a risk after succumbing to knee surgery last year - fails to stay injury-free. Hairston should remain with the team regardless of what happens.

The team likes what McAnulty has done this offseason in dropping almost 15 pounds, which should give him the role for the time being. McAnulty may have been a career .225 hitter in his first 77 major league at-bats, but he hit .283 this spring and his defense stood out. Gerut will likely be the odd man out as he still has minor league options and was two years removed from his last major league at-bats entering the season.

However, Headley looks to be the future at the position. He turns 24 this year, and although he is just entering his first stint above Double-A, he is the team's top prospect. He showed that this spring by hitting .349 with four home runs and 14 RBIs. Even more impressive was his ability to lay off bad pitches. He is yet another switch hitter for a lineup with good balance between righties and lefties. In 121 games with Double-A San Antonio last year, Headley hit .330 with 20 home runs, 78 RBIs and 82 runs. The cherry on top was a Bonds-esque .437 on-base percentage. The reason for his demotion to the minors lies in a position switch the team is having him make. With third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff locked in at the hot corner, they felt Headley has a better chance in left field. He will be focusing mainly on his defensive game in the minors and could be a May or June call up if the outfield has any injury or performance issues early on.

Fantasy Value

PETCO Park's reputation as a pitchers' park hurts any hitters' value; however, there is still some value to be had in this situation. It is possible owners will overlook Headley due to his demotion, making him available to be stashed in deeper leagues. With Edmonds and Giles' injury history, Headley could find himself back in the majors sooner rather than later. Right now, he would be worth storing on your bench for at least April, provided you have room. Were he to find his way back to San Diego in a starting role in time to log around 400 at-bats, Headley could produce in the .285-15-60 range with enough upside to outperform those estimates.

McAnulty and Gerut are devoid of any fantasy value in mixed leagues, even if they get regular playing time. Neither of them brings much to the table for fantasy purposes and will likely hurt more than help you.

Edmonds and Giles have value as backup outfielders in deep leagues and Giles could even be a low-end starter, although with their injury history they are not players you will want to rely on heavily.

That leaves Hairston, who seems to have found his stroke with the Padres. In his first 102 at-bats with the club he has 31 hits, 10 of them being home runs. He was fairly well regarded when he was drafted back in 2001 and at 27 (28 in May) is just entering what could be his prime. He is already a viable starter in NL-only leagues and is working his way up to fantasy relevance in deeper mixed leagues. If you have an open roster spot, consider taking a chance on Hairston as he suddenly has the look of a sleeper.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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