McLouth Earns Starting Role in Center

April 2, 2008 @ 01:28:26

By Buck Davidson
Edited by Herija C. Green

Outfielder Nate McLouth has been named the Pittsburgh Pirates’ starting center fielder after besting the competition in spring training. Though never touted as a top prospect, McLouth managed a .258 average with 13 homers, 38 RBIs and 22 steals in a part-time role last season, and his intriguing combination of power and speed could prove useful to fantasy owners willing to take a chance on the 26-year-old Bucco. Is McLouth a late bloomer or fantasy flash in the pan? And just how secure is his starting gig? Let’s see if we can answer those questions as we take a look at what could be the first waiver wire gem of the 2008 season.

The Upside

After languishing in a reserve role for the first two-plus seasons of his career, McLouth finally got his chance to shine in August of 2007. He stepped into the breach created by a litany of injuries and racked up a .270-7-17 line with 10 steals in 115 at-bats that month. Curiously, McLouth headed back to the bench when the Pirates starters returned, but he still managed .315-3-10 with six steals in 54 September at-bats. McLouth’s strong late-season play earned him a shot at the everyday center fielder’s job this spring, and he again stepped up - batting .288-2-8 with four steals and a beefy .542 slugging percentage. McLouth’s .258 average of a year ago seems problematic, but it’s important to note that he batted a more palatable .267 in the second half, and that he’s a career .292 hitter in the minor leagues. If nothing else, McLouth can and will run: he stole 40 bases at Single-A in 2003, swiped 31 bags at Double-A in ’04, then pilfered 34 at Triple-A the following season. His 22 steals last season therefore came as no surprise; it was his sudden spike in home run production that put McLouth on the radar screens of fantasy baseball sleeper-hunters everywhere.

The Downside

McLouth has never batted better than .258 in his major league tenure, and he’s only a career .251 hitter in the bigs. He also fanned 77 times in just 329 at-bats last season, making him a prime candidate for an extended slump. McLouth managed only one homer in 112 at-bats before the break last season, and was batting just .231 entering play in August before going on his hot streak. It’s also troubling that he belted only 40 home runs in 2,096 minor league at-bats - and managed only seven bombs in 270 at-bats with the Pirates in 2006. Perhaps his 2007 power surge was simply the result of one torrid month, and not a sign of things to come.

The Competition

Outfielder Nyjer Morgan is the man McLouth bested for the starting role, and the 27-year-old speedster batted a respectable .299 with one homer and seven steals in 107 September at-bats last year. Morgan is probably the fastest player on the Pirates roster, but with only six homers in five minor league campaigns it’s apparent that he doesn’t bring much pop to the table. To his credit, Morgan is a career .293 hitter in the minors, and his speed makes it possible he could get a look if McLouth slumps or suffers an injury. Meanwhile, though, Morgan figures to serve as the Pirates fourth or fifth outfielder - and currently does not appear to be a threat to take over McLouth’s starting job.

Last year’s starter in center field was Chris Duffy (shoulder), but he’s currently on the disabled list recovering from shoulder surgery. Duffy posted .249-3-22 with 13 steals in 241 at-bats last season, and he is not expected back until mid-May at the earliest. Duffy’s lackluster numbers of a year ago should relegate him to a reserve role or a minor league assignment when he returns.

Meanwhile, top prospect Andrew McCutchen is roaming the pasture at Triple-A Indianapolis, where he batted .313 in 17 games last season. The 21-year-old outfielder oozes five-tool potential, but he batted only .235 with nine strikeouts in 34 at-bats this spring. McCutchen wasn’t expected to make the team - in fact, he has yet to take a hack in a regular season major league game. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a big part of the Pirates’ future plans - though it would be surprising to see him in Pittsburgh before September.

The Bottom Line

We believe that McLouth is here to stay as the Pirates center fielder in 2008, and we’re cautiously optimistic that he’ll steal at least 20 bases and provide decent homer numbers this season. Keep an eye on his power production, since his 2007 campaign was definitely well above his career norm in that regard. Nonetheless, we still see some considerable upside here, with 20-plus home runs and 30-plus stolen bases being absolutely obtainable. His RBI and run totals might not be huge in a suspect Pittsburgh lineup, and a low batting average is a concern. Even so, McLouth is absolutely worth a waiver wire pickup in most mixed leagues based on his potential.

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Buck Davidson

Buck Davidson is a lifelong (the team's, not his) Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan who has been involved in fantasy sports since 1992....and been watching sports since his eyes first focused. He's far too skinny and slow to have ever played the game on a serious level, but enjoyed a notable and prosperous sandlot QB career until, at last, advancing years and condominium construction brought an end to both his NFL aspirations and the Florida sandlots. He has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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