Colby and the Cardinals Outfield

March 29, 2008 @ 01:43:16

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green and Nicholas Minnix

The Cardinals entered spring training with numerous options in the outfield, including Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, Brian Barton and even former feared slugger Juan Gonzalez. But perhaps the one that generated the most excitement was prized youngster Colby Rasmus.

Of all these players, Rasmus looks to have the most potential, despite having never played above Double-A ball. He started 128 games last year for Double-A Springfield, hitting .275 with 29 home runs, 72 RBIs, 93 runs and 18 stolen bases. He lived up to the billing this camp by hitting .302 with three home runs and three stolen bases. Even more impressive was his .464 on-base percentage, which was helped by a team-leading 13 walks. Despite the solid numbers, Rasmus was still optioned to start in center field for Triple-A Memphis. He might have been fighting a losing battle, as the team did not want to rush him to the majors, especially as he is just 21.

The walk numbers were especially encouraging because it displayed Rasmus' maturity against big league pitching. Many youngsters try to do too much to make an impression, but his plate discipline shone through this spring. Despite 70 walks last year, Rasmus struck out 100 times, or once every 4.3 at-bats, so the Cardinals might like to see him improve on that. He struck out just eight times in 43 at-bats this spring. One of his major drawbacks has been a lack of consistency, according to scouts: He has tended to be a streaky hitter and often tries to pull the ball too much when he's in a slump.

Standing in His Way

The man who seems to be standing in Rasmus' way is none other than the converted pitcher, Ankiel. Everyone has heard the story about how he has reinvented himself as a power hitter. With a great spring (.351 average, four home runs, 11 RBIs), he put his stamp on the starting center field job.

In just 47 games last year, Ankiel hit 11 home runs and drove in 39 runs. However, he struck out 41 times in those 47 games, and he hit .261 in September. He also struggled away from home, hitting just .244 with only two home runs in 78 at-bats. Much of his bad streak came after news was released last year that he had received human growth hormone in 2004. The news seemed to detract from his feel-good story, and it appeared to affect him at the plate. However, he rebounded to go 13-for-36 (.361) with two homers and eight RBIs in his final nine games, suggesting that he was eventually able to shake off the bad vibes.

One negative for Ankiel is that he could be easily rattled, especially after all of the many ups and downs he has been through. In addition, he does not have the speed of Rasmus; however, he plays solid defense and has a cannon for an arm, which he developed as a pitcher. If Rasmus were deemed ready for the majors, Ankiel would likely shift to right field, which brings us to the next player in this puzzle.

Schumaker is second to Ankiel in spring at-bats with 71 and is hitting .394, good for second on the team for anyone with more than four at-bats. He has also knocked two balls out of the park, driven in 11 and scored 17 runs. Schumaker has shown steady improvement over his three-year career. It finally came together for him in the second half last year when he hit .369 with 14 RBIs, 12 runs and one stolen base in 44 games. He finished the season hitting a career-high .333.

Still, for all his hard work, Schumaker will likely be relegated to a fourth outfielder role once Rasmus is ready for the bigs. Schumaker will be the team's starting right fielder to begin the season, while also backing up Ankiel in center field. It's safe to say that no one believes Schumaker's ceiling is as high as that of Rasmus.

Manning the other side of the outfield is Duncan. He should be the most comfortable in his position. Last year he hit .259 with 21 home runs and 70 RBIs, although he struggled in the second half with a .209 average and just five home runs. Rasmus is virtually no threat to Duncan, though, and he should remain the starter unless he plays himself out of a job.

Ludwick and Barton, a Rule 5 pickup, have also made the team as backup outfielders. They'll provide depth and, if injuries occur, they might fill in for the short term. Gonzalez (abdomen) has been placed on the temporary inactive list and has returned to his native Puerto Rico. Once he recovers, the door may be open for him to return, but when that would be is uncertain. It's also uncertain that he would even be a factor. None of these injury scenarios is as intriguing as the one on the right side of the infield.

First baseman Albert Pujols (elbow) has a high-grade tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, which may at some point require Tommy John surgery. He also has bone spurs, inflammation and arthritis in that joint. He initially suffered the injury in 2003 and has played with it, often through the pain; he believes he can manage it for another year. If the pain becomes worse this season, though, Pujols is not opposed to shutting it down and going under the knife. The team and doctors would prefer that the ligament completely tear before he undergoes the procedure, which has a recovery period of approximately eight months for position players.

Pujols may never have to have the surgery, but there seems to be little question that the elbow will continue affect him if he does not. If the Cardinals fall out of contention this year, which many expect them to do given their weak pitching staff, Pujols may do what's best for the long term. If that's the case, the Cardinals would likely move Duncan to first base, where he was experience. That probably would result in some more shifting and open a spot in the outfield for Rasmus. If St. Louis is indeed out of the running, why not give their center fielder of the future as much playing time in the majors as possible?

Fantasy Value for Those Involved

Although his demotion down to Triple-A seems to have driven down Rasmus' fantasy value, he still has some slight value in very deep mixed leagues with deep reserve rosters. Those in NL-only leagues should consider holding on. Of course, those in keeper leagues should not even think of dropping him. Schumaker doesn't appear to be a great long-term candidate and might have better value for the Cardinals as a reserve outfielder. Once Rasmus has a few at-bats under his belt, it is possible the team could bring him up from Triple-A, but they'll likely stick with the plan that's in place as long as the current crop isn't hurting them. If and when Rasmus does join the Cardinals, he would be an excellent upside pickup from the waiver wire.

Schumaker is not worth considering in mixed fantasy leagues unless he starts the season hitting as he did last year. He really only has value in NL-only leagues for now. He could provide a boost in the average and runs categories. Fantasy owners should view him as a No. 5 outfielder at best, though.

Ankiel should start for the Cardinals all year; the team has some emotional investment in him and wants him to succeed. His small sample of success at the plate suggests that their faith could be rewarded. If you can stomach a potential hit to your team's average, Ankiel has the ability to be a decent No. 3 outfielder with good power. He shouldn't be viewed as more than a low fourth or quality fifth fantasy outfielder right now, though.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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