Two Youngsters Lock Up Reds' Rotation

March 28, 2008 @ 11:59:59

By Joshua Ellis
Edited by Herija C. Green

With the hype from the debut of starting pitcher Homer Bailey having waned, the Cincinnati Reds are looking at two new young pitchers to get the home town fans excited again. Bailey, 21, made his major league debut with a lot of excitement in Great American Ball Park, but that excitement was short-lived as he finished the season with a 5.76 ERA and failed to win a spot in the rotation this spring. Instead, another pair of youngsters, pitchers Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez, may get their shot to shine in 2008.

In terms of playing time, Cueto and Volquez should get their shot early on in the season. Both are expected be in the starting rotation as the first week unfolds and their future with the team could be determined in that span.

Cueto, 22, was an undrafted free agent signed by the Reds in 2004 and has been impressive ever since. He began his career in rookie ball with the GCL Reds in 2005 and posted a 5.02 ERA in 43 innings. He would not post an ERA higher than 3.50 after that, which he recorded in 12 starts with Single-A Sarasota in 2006. Over his three years in the minor leagues, Cueto holds a combined 3.28 ERA with a 29-15 record. More importantly though is his control. Cueto has 358 strikeouts in 348 1/3 innings and just 82 walks. In his 22 innings at Triple-A Louisville, Cueto had a 2.05 ERA with 21 strikeouts and just two free passes. His control could be his most redeeming asset as Cueto makes his debut in the majors. In spring training this season, Cueto has struggled in 13 2/3 innings. He has an ERA of 5.27 and has 12 strikeouts and nine walks.

Volquez, 24, has been a prospect with the Texas Rangers since they signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2001. He made his minor league debut with the Rangers rookie ball team in 2003 where he posted an era of 4.00 in 27 innings. Over the next two seasons, Volquez was impressive enough to earn a shot in the major leagues in 2005 where he was a dismal 0-4 with a 14.21 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. That stint sent Volquez back to the minors again where he was impressive. He posted a 6-6 record for Triple-A Oklahoma in 2006 with a 3.21 ERA. This success landed Volquez in the majors again where he struggled to a 1-6 record with a 7.29 ERA in 33 1/3 innings in 2006.

He was sent all the way to down Single-A ball in 2007, where he worked his way back up through the minors. In 26 starts spread over three minor league levels, he went 14-6 with a 3.67 ERA - including a 6-1 mark and 1.41 ERA at Triple-A Oklahoma - and earned another shot in the major leagues. This time, Volquez had more success with a 4.50 ERA and a 2-1 record in 34 innings. Volquez had had a long progression of ups and downs and may now be ready to make an impact with his new team, the Reds, after being acquired during the offseason for outfielder Josh Hamilton. In the spring, Volquez has been very impressive with a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings. He has struck out 26 and walked only four.

Both Cueto and Volquez are on the upswing in their career. Volquez had some rough days with the Rangers but rebounded nicely last season and has had a great start this spring. Despite Cueto's poor overall numbers, he carried a 2.08 ERA through his first 13 innings before melting down his last time out.

There are some setbacks to picking up Cueto. Listed at just 5-foot-10, he must generate more arm speed than taller pitchers that can use their length to achieve velocity. Owners of Cueto should be wary of the fact that he is coming off a season where he pitched 161 2/3 innings and he might not be ready to pitch a 200-inning season. He is also very young and has only spent 22 innings at Triple-A, new manager Dusty Baker may send Cueto back down more quickly than the older and more seasoned Volquez if he has a rough start.

Volquez has struggled at the major league level with the Rangers as even his decent 2007 numbers don't translate into fantasy value. If his numbers don't improve, Volquez would have almost no fantasy value and could be a burden on your pitching staff. Both of these pitchers will have to play their home games in Great American Ball Park, which provides little margin for error as well as it has been very kind to hitters since it opened in 2003.

On the upside, Cueto has shown amazing control in his time in the minor leagues, Volquez has shown similar deadly control this spring. If each pitcher can limit their walks, they should have success. Volquez has been progressing every year in the majors through hard knocks and experience while Cueto’s numbers suggest he’s ready to shine in the major leagues as well. These guys could have an instant impact, especially with the pressure taken off them slightly due to their projected roles at the backend of the rotation.

In his career, Baker has allowed younger pitchers to post high inning totals early in their careers. The most infamous case is that of pitchers Mark Prior (San Diego Padres) and Kerry Wood (Chicago Cubs) as both posted huge inning totals early in their careers on Baker's watch and have been hounded by injuries ever since. In his first season with the reds, Baker may want to appease the fans, and giving the young flame-throwers a shot is what the Reds faithful desire.

Great options for keeper leagues, both are at the top of the heap in terms of the young pitching that is getting a chance this season at the major league level. Both Volquez and Cueto are high-risk, high-reward players though with Cueto worth consideration late in most mixed leagues and Volquez being a decent option in deeper ones. Cueto has the higher ceiling, but at 22 he might not be given a long leash by Baker in a year when some feel the Reds can compete for a playoff spot. Volquez has more experience and at 24 years of age might be in line for a better 2008 season.

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Joshua Ellis
Joshua has been a KFFL contributor since 2006.

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