Lackey Creates Void in Angels Rotation

March 19, 2008 @ 05:39:45

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Herija C. Green

Picked by many as the favorites in the American League West, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will have to weather the storm early in the 2008 campaign without their ace starting pitcher. John Lackey (triceps, elbow), who went 19-9 with an AL-leading 3.01 ERA last year, is not expected to pitch in a major league game until at least mid-May due to a strained right triceps. The 29-year-old hurler will likely miss eight starts at the minimum as a result of the setback. Additionally, the Halos will also be without No. 2 starter Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) for at least the month of April, which places a lot of stress on the remainder of the rotation that includes starters Jered Weaver, Jon Garland, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders and a fifth starter that is expected to pitcher Dustin Moseley.

The Severity of the Injury

Entering 2008, Lackey had never been placed on the disabled list during his six-year career. In fact, he had never missed a start. Don't get too giddy over his clean injury history though, Lackey's current setback appears to be more serious than a simple strained triceps. Prior to the current diagnosis of a strained muscle, the 2007 AL ERA champion had been limited from late February to early March due to elbow soreness. His elbow tenderness was located in the upper forearm area. The initial soreness eventually subsided in early March but two weeks later the discomfort spread above his elbow to the triceps tendon. The wide area of inflammation and the duration of it is enough reason for fantasy managers to significantly scale back their 2008 expectations of Lackey. There's no sure telling when he'll return despite the seemingly optimistic mid-to-late May projection.

As of now, the Angels plan to shut down Lackey from all baseball activities for three-to-four weeks. The 6-foot-6, 245-pound right-hander is then set to be re-examined by a physician in approximately early-to-mid April. If Lackey gets the go-ahead during the medical examination, he should begin a throwing program to build his endurance and eventually go on a rehabilitation assignment in the minors that will mirror a pitcher's spring training program. Mid-May is considered the best case scenario for return for Lackey, but any setbacks could prolong his departure from the rotation until June.

What to Expect in 2008

Part of the disappointment surrounding this setback is realizing Lackey was one of the more reliable starters in baseball and was still in his prime. Coming off his finest year where Lackey placed third in the AL Cy Young Award voting (and 17th in MVP balloting), there was also reason to believe he was still getting better, especially with his improving command. For three straight years, the All-Star had made exactly 33 starts and surpassed 209 innings pitched. During that time, Lackey averaged 15 wins, a 3.34 ERA, 217 innings pitched and 189 strikeouts. Based on that track record of consistency, Lackey was usually drafted in the fifth round of 12-team MLB universe leagues before the news regarding his triceps strain.

The best to hope for now seems to be that Lackey will miss eight starts, which is approximately one-quarter of the season. Taking that into consideration, that drops Lackey's season averages to roughly 11 wins, 160 innings and 140 strikeouts. Based on those figures, he's approximately a 10th-round value in MLB universe formats, assuming he makes the swiftest return possible. Part of the allure of rolling the dice on Lackey will be his consistent track record. He's a guy fantasy managers can throw out on the hill every time and not lose sleep over it because he usually puts up good numbers across-the-board. The downside of drafting him that high is knowing one more injury setback could delay his comeback until June or later and sink his value further.

Possible Replacements

As noted earlier, Moseley is the favorite to fill Lackey's void as the fifth starter in the Angels starting rotation. A ground-ball pitcher, Moseley went 4-3 with a 4.40 earned run average in 92 innings pitched last year but only fanned 50 batters. The right-hander has done well in the bullpen (3-2, 4.39 ERA as a reliever) but has struggled a bit when working as a starter (2-1, 5.44 ERA in 10 career starts). He has short-term value in AL-only leagues.

Pitcher Nick Adenhart, the team's top pitching prospect, is the most attractive of the Angels options in terms of upside, but he will likely begin the season at Triple-A Salt Lake. Adenhart boasts a pitch arsenal that includes a low-90s fastball with sink, a hammer curveball and solid change up. The 21-year-old right-hander went 10-8 with a 3.65 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 153 innings with Double-A Arkansas last year. Were the Angels to use Adenhart in the rotation, Moseley would move back to working out of the bullpen.

Pitcher Nick Green registered a 10-8 record with a 3.68 ERA in 178 innings pitched on the same Arkansas staff last year. However, Green has already been optioned to Salt Lake and is no longer up for immediate consideration.

Fantasy Outlook

Being nearly assured of missing one-quarter of the 2008 season, Lackey will be crossed off on some fantasy managers' boards, but he's still one of the top starters in the American League. He's a known commodity and top-tier starter when he's on the hill. There is risk in taking him given the uncertainty of his absence and severity of his injury, but he's worth the gamble around the 10th round. Don't rely on Lackey as anything higher than a third starter on an MLB universe squad.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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