Pujols Now a High Grade Dice Roll

March 10, 2008 @ 06:00:33

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Tim Heaney

One of fantasy baseball's true difference makers is dealing with a very significant injury - one that will reportedly require Tommy John surgery to correct at some point. St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols (elbow) has what is being classified as a "high grade" tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, an injury that occurred back in 2003. While the tear itself has not worsened, Pujols has developed bone spurs and arthritis in the joint along with some inflammation.

The Injury

Pujols played with the injury and the pain last season, and he chose to continue the non-surgical approach over the winter when he could have undergone Tommy John surgery or an arthroscopic procedure to clean up the bone spurs and inflammation. However, the worry was that the removal of the bone spurs would actually serve to destabilize the ligament tear. The less invasive surgery has been all but ruled out at this point, and it appears that only continuing to play with treatment or undergoing Tommy John surgery are still considered viable options.

If he were to go under the knife, Pujols would likely be looking at a recovery period of approximately eight months, which is considerably shorter than the recovery time for pitchers. However, it would clearly cause him to miss some time since there are no eight-month breaks in the major leagues.

The optimistic view of the situation is that Pujols has been playing with the injury to one degree or another for four years and has performed at an All-Star level in each of them. Even in 2007, when he said the discomfort and pain were worse than previous seasons, Pujols still managed to hit .327 with 32 home runs, 103 RBIs and 99 runs scored. While those might not be up to the level we'd come to expect out of Pujols, they are still outstanding numbers.

Why You Should Worry

On the flip side, there are a lot of red flags springing up all around Pujols, starting with the injury's severity and the apparent worsening nature of it. It seems logical to think the pain will continue to get worse as more time passes despite the rest he got over the winter, and if that is the case Pujols has already stated that he would shut it down in 2008 rather than try to play through the same level of pain he endured last season.

Another concern for prospective Pujols owners is that the Cardinals' prospects for 2008 don't look too promising. Their starting rotation is riddled with question marks, and their everyday lineup hardly has the look of one that is ready to compete with the likes of the Chicago Cubs or Milwaukee Brewers (or maybe even the Cincinnati Reds and Houston Astros) in the NL Central. If St. Louis were to be buried early in the season, Pujols could opt to have the necessary surgery with an eye on the 2009 campaign, which is not the kind of dark cloud a fantasy owner wants hanging over their first-round pick.

Fantasy Outlook

What does this all mean to you, the fantasy owner? Well, despite all the gloom and doom of this article, Pujols remains an elite talent and isn't someone you can let slip too far in drafts. However, we do feel that spending a first-round pick is no longer a wise decision, and that Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard and Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder are now better (and safer) options during the first two rounds of the draft.

Pujols is best viewed as a major risk-reward gamble in the third or fourth round, though it seems unlikely he'd fall that far in most drafts. Of course, if you draft Pujols, make sure you find a promising backup with some upside in the later rounds. A few names to consider include Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman James Loney, Chicago White Sox first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher and New York Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado. If you're in deeper leagues, Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto would be an intriguing selection.

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Herija C. Green

Herija is a graduate from California State University - San Marcos. He was a contributing writer and editor with KFFL.com

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