Kazmir Strains Rays Rotation

March 3, 2008 @ 00:41:12

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Herija C. Green

The Tampa Bay Rays have gone 10 years in existence without a winning season, and they still can't catch a break. On February 25, ace starter Scott Kazmir (elbow) walked off the mound with pain in his throwing elbow after hurling his third warm-up toss before a scheduled appearance in an intrasquad game. Fortunately for Kazmir and the Rays, a MRI done the next day revealed no structural damage in the elbow, and it has been diagnosed as a strain.

State of his Current Injury

The 2007 American League strikeout king has seen the inflammation and stiffness heal according to manager Joe Maddon, who indicated Sunday, Mar. 2 that Kazmir is now working on strength and simulated throwing. If all goes well during that portion, Kazmir could start playing catch and doing loss toss drills as early as the middle of the week. From there, the next step would be to begin throwing bullpen sessions.

The team has yet to set a timetable for his return, but at the earliest Kazmir is looking at a mid-March return to pitch in actual Grapefruit League games. The Rays haven't ruled out an Opening Day start for their All-Star pitcher, and Kazmir has indicated he is determined to pitch in that game. However, Tampa Bay has mentioned a scenario where the southpaw serves as its fifth starter to open the season, in order to give him additional time to recuperate.

Even though things look promising now, don't rule out the possibility of Kazmir not coming back until mid-to-late April as well. General manager Andrew Friedman and Maddon have both been vocal about taking the cautious approach with Kazmir, and they have been careful with him before with strict pitch counts last season being a prime example.

As a frame of reference, Minnesota Twins pitcher Francisco Liriano was shelved by a strained elbow two years ago during his electric rookie campaign. He rested it, but his elbow worsened during his comeback, and he ultimately had to undergo Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss all of 2007. Although this is not likely to happen to Kazmir, fantasy players should be aware of the worst-case scenario.

Injury History

The 24-year-old has had arm troubles in past, spending two separate stints on the disabled list in both July and August of 2006 due to soreness in his shoulder. Against Kazmir's wishes, Rays management shut down him for the rest of the season after his second DL stint - a move which cost him the season's final 36 games. When he was a farm hand in the New York Mets organization in 2003, a then 19-year-old Kazmir had a tender elbow at the start of the season, though it was not on par with his current setback.

Replacements

If Kazmir can't go on Opening Day, control pitcher James Shields would likely take the ball for the Rays. The 26-year-old won 12 games, registered a 3.85 ERA, posted a 1.11 WHIP and fanned 184 batters in 215 innings last year. With his superb command, he looks capable of further growth upon last year's numbers. Pitcher Matt Garza, an offseason addition from the Minnesota Twins, is the only other starter thought to be assured of a spot.

Pitchers Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel and J.P. Howell are the candidates competing for fourth and fifth spots and an opening possibly created by Kazmir's elbow strain. Still just 24, Jackson brings intrigue with high-90s heat and is a deep post-hype sleeper after registering a 4.48 ERA in the second half last year. Sonnastine is a poor man's Shields with a decent strikeout rate, but he gets hit too much. A tall guy with above-average stuff, Niemann could surprise as a rookie if he can avoid the injuries that have ravaged his minor league career. Hammel has been tattooed repeatedly at the big league level and hasn't been able to translate his minor league success. He has good stuff though and is only 25. Howell appears to be little more than a Triple-A pitcher at this time.

Jackson and Sonnastine look to have the inside track on the fourth and fifth slots, while Niemann appears to be the pitcher with the most to gain from Kazmir's setback.

Fantasy Outlook

Kazmir took his pitching craft to a new level during the second half of last season, going 8-3 with a 2.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 124 strikeouts in 94 1/3 innings pitched. His walk rate stayed a little high but was down nearly a full walk per nine innings from 2005, and he struck out an AL-leading 239 batters. These improvements made him a hot fantasy commodity that was taken on average in the fifth or sixth round in early 2008 drafts; a 24-year-old some felt could be the best hurler in the AL this year on an improving Rays squad.

Based on the information at hand, it looks like Kazmir won't miss more than a couple of starts at most. He could lose a victory or two and some strikeouts because the Rays will likely have a leash on their prized southpaw in the early going. Ideally he should be downgraded a bit, but there's too much to like not to pull the trigger based on the injury because another owner in your league almost certainly will. He could still be a low-end No. 1 fantasy starter at this point in most drafts. If you take him as your top guy, make sure to back him up with other reliable pitchers.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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