Guzman Looks to Hold off Lopez

March 3, 2008 @ 00:41:22

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green

The Washington Nationals appear set to enter 2008 with shortstop Cristian Guzman as their starter. However, while this may be an easy decision for Nationals manager Manny Acta, there is more to this than meets the eye for your fantasy team. His backup at the position, infielder Felipe Lopez, could have some fantasy value this season.

Second-Half Surge

This will be the last year on Guzman's four-year, $16.8 million contract that he signed before the 2005 season. Last year he struggled with injuries, beginning the season on the disabled list with a hamstring injury and ending it in June with a thumb injury. In between the two injuries, Guzman hit well, posting a .328 batting average with two home runs, 14 RBIs and 31 runs. Guzman also missed the 2006 season after tearing a muscle in his right shoulder. Finally, Guzman hit poorly during his one full season in 2005. In that year, he hit .219 with just four home runs, 31 RBIs and 39 runs in 142 games. Unless he has a year like he did last year, minus the injuries, this will likely be his final season in Washington.

Steal Threat on the Bench

Guzman's hitting woes and his lengthy injury past make Lopez someone to consider in your fantasy drafts. Although he does not have great value yet, it could rise quickly in spring training if he can win the starting job. Lopez is coming off a disappointing year in which he hit just .245 with nine home runs, 50 RBIs and 70 runs in 154 games. However, prior to last season, Lopez played 71 games in Washington after a midseason trade from the Cincinnati Reds. In those games he hit .281 with 22 RBIs, 43 runs and 21 stolen bases. Combine that with last season and Lopez stole 44 bases and scored 98 runs. According to Acta, Lopez is entering camp as the most talented of the competitors for middle infield spots. His speed is what could make him more valuable than Guzman as he could unsettle pitchers at the top of the lineup once he is on base.

Fantasy Outlook

This job is Guzman's to lose, but he may have to continue getting on base at a .380 percentage, something he did in his 46 games last year. Also providing motivation for Guzman will be his plans for 2009. His contract will end this season and both him, and the Nationals, will be hoping he has the kind of year former Atlanta Braves and current Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andruw Jones wishes he had in his contract year. If he holds onto the starting job, Guzman would be worth a late pick only in NL-only leagues. However, he will likely go undrafted in most leagues. Keep an eye on him over the first few weeks of the season to see if the 2007 Guzman shows up or if it is the 2005 version that rears its ugly head.

From a fantasy standpoint, Lopez should only have good value if he is starting. Luckily, he could see time at:shortstop and second base (where infielder Ronnie Belliard is the incumbent). If he wins a starting job, Lopez would have value as a late-round pick that has decent upside, especially if you are looking for steals and runs.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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