Lyon to Charm Snakes' Pen

February 22, 2008 @ 21:46:22

By Buck Davidson
Edited by Tim Heaney

The offseason trade of closer Jose Valverde left a hole at the back end of the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen heading into the 2008 season. Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin announced Feb. 6 that relief pitcher Brandon Lyon will enter spring training as the team's closer, but Lyon will face stiff competition from at least two other members of the D-backs' bullpen. Arizona's closer figures to rack up plenty of saves in 2008, so the winner of this competition would see an immediate spike in fantasy value. Let's see what fantasy wisdom we can glean from what promises to be one of the more interesting positional battles this spring.

The Main Man

Lyon led the major leagues with 35 holds last season, and the 28-year-old had a successful stint as the Arizona closer back in 2005. Lyon saved 13 games in 14 chances and racked up a 1.96 ERA during that six-week run, but an elbow injury derailed his season - though he did manage to return after missing approximately three months. By that time, though, the closer's job was in the capable hands of the cannon-armed Jose Valverde. Valverde's emergence relegated Lyon to a setup role, and he's performed well in that capacity - posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.24 WHIP last season.

What's worrisome about Lyon is his lack of dominant stuff: Opposing batters hit .251 against him last season, and he managed only 40 strikeouts in 74 innings of work. Lyon pitches to contact, and a closer without a go-to strikeout pitch is a closer that figures to struggle if he's called upon to defuse an opponent's rally with a timely punchout.

The Threat

Though Pena is currently second to Lyon on the depth chart, there can be no denying that the 26-year-old fireballer possesses "closer's stuff." His .207 batting average against last season should bear testament to that. Pena mainly worked the seventh inning for the D-backs last season, piling up 30 holds, two saves, a 3.27 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 63 strikeouts in 85 1/3 innings pitched. Though his strikeout rate may not look overly impressive, a glance at his splits shows that Pena punched out 31 batters in 35 2/3 innings after the break, so he has some upside in this capacity. Pena's fastball reaches the mid-90s, and that heater - combined with a plus slider - held right-handed hitters to just a .176 average last season.

In case you haven't figured it out yet, we like Pena's chances to get a look in the ninth inning at some point this season - though it's hard to tell when that time will come. His wicked stuff gives him a decided advantage over Lyon's "hit 'em where they are" game, and it could only be a matter of time before Lyon hits a rough stretch of road. If that happens, Pena figures to be next in line for saves - and he might not look back once he gets the call. As this article is posted, Pena was dealing with visa issues in the Dominican Republic and had yet to report to camp, though he's been throwing at the club's Dominican facility.

Just In Case

Reliever Chad Qualls was a key component in the Valverde trade. The 29-year-old reliever has become one of the better setup men in the game over the past few seasons. Last year, Qualls tossed 82 2/3 innings for Houston, posting a tidy 3.05 ERA and striking out 78 batters while racking up five saves and 21 holds. He was even better after the break, carving out a 1.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 38 2/3 innings of work.

Though Qualls definitely has the stuff to bridge the game from the starter to the closer, the jury's still out on whether his stuff is good enough to handle ninth-inning duties. Opponents batted .272 against him last year, and his season 1.34 WHIP was pedestrian at best. Qualls' only chance to assume the closer's role this year would involve either an injury or major implosion by both Lyon and Pena. Qualls is nothing more than a fallback option, and if injuries were to befall Pena and Lyon, the D-Backs would likely seek to acquire a more experienced closer rather than hand full-time duties over to Qualls.

The Bottom Line

If your league is drafting tomorrow, Lyon is the closer to own from Arizona. If you draft Lyon, it would be prudent to grab Pena later in your draft - especially if your league awards points for a hold. Even if Pena doesn't win the closer's gig, he figures to rack up a boatload of holds in his projected setup role. Qualls is also worthy of a draft pick in holds leagues - though he's a long shot to chip in any saves along the way.

Watch this battle very closely this spring: Lyon has the nod for now, but his hold on the job is anything but firm. A couple of rocky outings could bring Pena into the picture, and he's shown that he has the stuff to win the job. Melvin does not favor a closer-by-committee approach, so it's fairly certain that one - and only one - reliever will have the job when the 'Snakes break camp. Stay tuned.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Buck Davidson

Buck Davidson is a lifelong (the team's, not his) Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan who has been involved in fantasy sports since 1992....and been watching sports since his eyes first focused. He's far too skinny and slow to have ever played the game on a serious level, but enjoyed a notable and prosperous sandlot QB career until, at last, advancing years and condominium construction brought an end to both his NFL aspirations and the Florida sandlots. He has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: John Danks placed on DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: The substandard Roy Halladay (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Danny Hultzen, Roger Kieschnick, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Austin Jackson headed to DL (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, Ernesto Frieri, more (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
I am not afraid of Hakeem Nicks' foot injury (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/24)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/24)