Joba Rules Continue to Frustrate Fantasy Owners

February 21, 2008 @ 21:45:09

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Richard Garcia

For the latter part of last season, New York Yankees relief pitcher Joba Chamberlain was making an immediate impact during the Yankees' playoff push. The so-called "Joba Rules" were a constant topic of discussion for then Yankees manager Joe Torre. With Chamberlain solidifying the bullpen by becoming a dominant setup man for closer Mariano Rivera, Torre was often asked why Chamberlain was not utilized on consecutive days or for longer stints.

Now, in spring training 2008, the same set of rules is apparently being set again for this season. Questions surrounding both the Yankees' starting rotation and bullpen will apparently keep the 22-year-old Chamberlain in the bullpen for at least the first half of the season. This comes after an offseason in which the organization proclaimed that Chamberlain would find himself as a starter. Just as the Boston Red Sox struggled in making the same sort of decision last year with relief pitcher Jonathan Papelbon, New York does not currently seem to have an overwhelming argument for either.

The Game Plan

The original plan to place Chamberlain in the rotation surprisingly came when the team was pursuing then Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Johan Santana this past December. Yankees starting pitcher Philip Hughes was the key player discussed in the proposed trade, and Chamberlain was seen as a young starter who could replace another young starter in Hughes. As the deal fell through and Santana was eventually dealt to the New York Mets, the Yankees' brass suddenly thrust veteran right-handed pitcher Mike Mussina and young right-hander Ian Kennedy firmly in the starting rotation. This put the Yankees back at square one with Chamberlain, once again settling him in as their setup man.

The back-and-forth decision on Chamberlain's role indicates uncertainty in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. The thought is to limit Chamberlain to about 140 total innings, leaving open the option of moving him into the rotation for the second half of the season. Even with veteran left-handed starter Andy Pettitte signing on for another year, the Yankees are putting a lot of weight on the shoulders of both Hughes and Kennedy. Questions around Mussina stem from his disastrous 2007 season, even with a decent September showing.

Uncertainty at the Back End

The "bridge" role to Rivera was supposed to be filled by right-handed relief pitcher Kyle Farnsworth. However, he has shown no consistency in his two seasons with New York and may not be a long-term option for the setup role. Several young relief pitchers (Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and Ross Ohlendorf) are heavily being counted on to step up and take a prominent role either this year or down the road. With Chamberlain already showing what he can do in the seventh and eighth innings, there is less risk in keeping him in the bullpen compared to a new role as a starter. Here's how Chamberlain fared on the mound during his rookie season:

Table - Joba Chamberlain, 2007 Statistics

Team	W	L	ERA	G	SV	HLD	IP	H	WHIP	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
NYY	2	0	0.38	19	1	8	24.0	12	0.75	2	1	1	6	34

Last season, Chamberlain was nothing short of spectacular in fantasy categories across the board. Given that he only had 24 IP, and new Yankees manager Joe Girardi may be tempted to lengthen his outings this season, projecting his production output for a full season is tricky. Also, throw in the possibility that Chamberlain could remain in the pen for the entire year and the situation becomes murkier.

Fantasy Outlook

The bottom line is that the Yankees have left the door open for Chamberlain to become a starting pitcher at some point this season. However, he is expected to begin the year in the bullpen and could stay there for the entire season if that's where he fits best this season. Nothing is set in stone this season for Chamberlain, which makes it difficult to gauge how effective he will be for fantasy teams. Fantasy owners should view Chamberlain as an elite setup option, with an above-average chance of putting up 30-40 holds and matching or approaching the 1.4 strikeouts per inning ratio that he had in '07.

Matching his ERA from last season may be tough, but Chamberlain has a chance to keep it around that level. He should be viewed as a pitcher with moderate risk with a possible high reward. The Yankees might decide that Chamberlain would be more effective if he remained more of a mystery to opposing hitters.

Chamberlain's bullpen role gives a fantasy boost to Mussina and Kennedy. They were expected to fight for the fifth starter spot, but both now appear to have a very good chance to toss 30-35 starts each with the potential for 10-12 wins. Of course, one or both of them may be affected if the Yankees add a starter via trade at mid-season.

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Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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