Does Surgery Chop Gallardo's Draft Value?

February 20, 2008 @ 06:06:05

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Richard Garcia

Hope springs eternal is the cliché used to describe the optimism of baseball teams this time of year. For the Milwaukee Brewers, their sanguinity has been dampened a tad by the news that starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo (knee) will be out for at least four weeks after tearing the lateral meniscus in his left knee. The cartilage damage in Gallardo's knee was repaired in an arthroscopic surgical procedure Tuesday, Feb. 19, in Milwaukee, and Gallardo could start the season on the disabled list.

Gallardo's Health

At age 22, Gallardo was considered a hot fantasy commodity heading into the season, having the stuff and the performance indicative of a future ace. No injury news is positive for a young pitcher, but this setback is a small chink in Gallardo's armor. The meniscus comprises the pads and cushioning that covers the knee. When the meniscus cartilage is torn, the knee swells up (which happened in Gallardo's case) and a surgical procedure is needed to remove the ripped sections, which causes the inflammation. One-third of the meniscus is typically cut out in this type of surgery to clean it up. This arthroscopic practice is routine and has become standard in sports medicine. Dr. William Raasch, the Brewers team physician, reported Gallardo's surgery went smoothly with no surprises.

Prior to this recent injury, Gallardo had avoided major health woes in his young professional career. Gallardo's arm is structurally fine and he exhibits good mechanics with his smooth, easy delivery. Barring a bad turn of circumstances in his rehabilitation, we could expect Gallardo to bounce back and show few ill-effects from this knee injury.

Replacements in the Brewers Rotation

One week ago, Gallardo, Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan were the only three starters set in the Brewers rotation. At the time, right-handers Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva and Claudio Vargas were competing with left-handers Chris Capuano and Manny Parra for the fourth and fifth spots. Three of these five hurlers will now earn spots in the rotation to start the year.

Bush, the most likely to earn a spot, had a disappointing 2007 campaign sporting a 12-10 record and a 5.12 ERA in 186 and 1/3 innings. Bush is still capable of a post-hype breakout with his above-average command, decent stuff and ability to induce groundballs. The 6-foot-2, 209-pound right hander has been plagued though by gopher balls, horrid road splits and the inability to pitch out of the stretch. Right now, he's only a spot-start option in his most favorable home starts.

Parra is the Milwaukee hurler set to gain the most from Gallardo's injury. The rookie southpaw was effective in the big leagues late last season registering a 3.76 ERA and fanning 26 batters in 26 and a 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old threw a perfect game last season at Triple-A Nashville and was 7-3 with a 2.68 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings pitched at Double-A Huntsville. Parra fires a low-to-mid 90s fastball and complements it with two-plus pitches, a changeup and curveball. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound left-hander has the stuff and skills to make a sizeable impact as a rookie. He's assured of a bullpen spot and should get his share of starts in a swingman type role. Parra is worthy of a post-draft pickup if he wins a rotation spot.

Capuano, who tanked last year going 5-12 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, still has some value with a respectable strikeout rate. He shouldn't be utilized in MLB universe formats until he proves his worth again after three-to-four starts at least. Villanueva put up a 3.94 ERA and had solid strikeout numbers last year. He has the pitch arsenal and command of a fourth-to-fifth starter. Vargas is a fifth-starter type with decent stuff, but has mediocre control.

Where to Draft Gallardo

If everything goes according to plan, Gallardo is set to be back on the mound sometime in mid-to-late March. He could possibly make a Cactus League start or two and complete the rest of his training with a few minor league starts. The Brewers have three days off during the first 15 days of their season, so there's a slight chance he may miss only two or three scheduled outings to start his sophomore season. Once Gallardo returns in mid-to-late April, chances are he will be coddled by the Brewers and be limited to five-inning stints for awhile. Those short starts will hamper his chances at wins, but the training wheels should come off completely by early-to-mid-summer.

The best-case scenario would say that Gallardo would start anywhere from 27 to 29 games this season and rack up win totals in the low-teens. The 6-foot-1, 209-pound right hander projects to throw about 190-to-200 innings in the process and accumulate strikeouts in that neighborhood, too. He can improve on his 1.27 WHIP from last season if he reduces his walks and gets more support from the defense, which was woeful last year.

Prior to the injury, the 2004 second round pick was drafted on average with the 125th pick, generally the 11th or 12th round in MLB universe leagues. Gallardo will drop to the mid-teens with the latest news. The former Dallas-area prep star is still a good pick there. He was 8-3 with a 2.90 ERA and struck out an eye-popping 110 batters in 77 and 2/3 innings at Triple-A Nashville in 2007. After the call-up, Gallardo had little time adjusting putting up a 9-5 record, a 3.67 ERA and 101 strikeouts over 110 and 1/3 frames. Even more enticing, the right-hander finished the year on fire with a 3-1 record and 1.36 ERA in September. With four quality big league pitches and brilliant command that produced a 211-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio in pro ball last year, the sky is still the limit for Gallardo.

Fantasy managers need not be gun-shy because of a small knee injury. Shoulder and elbow problems are red flags for pitchers, not a minor knee ailment such as this one.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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