Cubs Have a Pack of Closer Options

February 19, 2008 @ 06:04:24

By Brad Berreman
Edited by Tim Heaney

With former closer Ryan Dempster moving to the starting rotation for 2008, the Chicago Cubs are looking for someone to step into the closer role this spring. In an interview Sunday, Feb. 17, Cubs manager Lou Piniella said that reliever Bobby Howry is the early favorite due to his prior experience in the role. Piniella had previously announced that he would like to have a winner chosen by three-quarters of the way through spring training and would like to have one pitcher take the job full time.

The three candidates are Howry, Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol - all right-handers. Let's examine all three candidates and talk about the situation for fantasy owners.

The Stable Option

Howry has 65 career saves, including 28 in 1999 with the Chicago White Sox. Howry had eight saves in with the Cubs in 2007 while taking over the role when Dempster was injured.

Howry has pitched in 60 or more games seven times in his career with at least 78 appearances in each of the last three seasons. He struggled prior to the All-Star break in 2007, posting a 4.68 ERA in 39 appearances. But after the All-Star break, Howry posted a 1.35 ERA in 39 appearances. Perhaps being the closer had something to do with his dramatic improvement in ERA during the second half of last season. His control was also excellent in 2007; he walked only 19 batters in 81 1/3 innings pitched.

One negative with Howry is his lack of strikeouts. He had just 72 strikeouts in 2007 and has averaged 7.77 strikeouts per nine innings during his 10-year career. That strikeout rate is less then ideal for a closer. Howry's greatest value to the Cubs is his experience and durability.

The Injury-Prone Arm

Wood's injury history has been well-documented. He has had multiple surgeries on his right shoulder and had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in 1999. He missed the first four months of the 2007 season with a shoulder injury before returning in August as a reliever after being used mainly as a starter throughout his career.

When Wood returned last season, he went 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA in 22 games as a reliever. He averaged about one strikeout per inning (24 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings pitched) and walked only 13 batters.

The two main things to consider with Wood are his lack of experience as a reliever and his health. He performed some relief duty in 2005, pitching in 21 games while only starting 10 games that season. Wood might have an easier time staying healthy by no longer logging a starter's innings. Will Wood be durable enough to pitch on consecutive days if needed?

The Young Gun

Marmol is the youngest of the Cubs' closer candidates at 25 years old and with less than two full seasons of major league experience.

Marmol averaged more than a strikeout per inning for the Cubs in 2007, striking out 96 batters in 69 1/3 innings pitched. He pitched in 59 games after being called up in May, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.43 ERA and one save while becoming a top setup man for the Cubs. He has the best stuff of any of the three closer candidates, and his 2007 strikeout rate is ideal for a potential closer.

Marmol made his major league debut in 2006 and started 13 of the 19 games he pitched in. He struggled in his first taste of the major leagues, with a 5-7 record, a 6.08 ERA and as many walks as strikeouts (59).

The main negative with Marmol would be his lack of major league experience. He has yet to pitch a full season in the big leagues. It would appear that he is the closer of the future for the Cubs, and he could take the job sometime this season.

Fantasy Outlook

This situation is definitely worth fantasy owners' attention; the Cubs will likely be a contender again and save opportunities should be plentiful for whoever wins the job. This is assuming one man takes the job outright, which Piniella has said he would prefer.

The early front-runner appears to be Howry, who has the edge partially due to his experience. Marmol could have a chance to take the job at some point this season and could be the Cubs closer in 2009.

Keep an eye on the situation as your draft day and the season approach. Factors to look for early in spring training include Wood's health and what Piniella is saying publicly about who he likes. If one or more of these three pitchers misses time this spring, then a sort of "Last Man Standing" competition may ensue.

Marmol is being taken first among the three in fantasy drafts because of his upside. The youngster is going in the middle rounds with Wood and Howry being taken in the late rounds as flier picks. Marmol could warrant such a pick, but with little certainty regarding his situation, it's a huge risk. The latest news regarding Howry could alter those numbers, but don't overpay for any of these three closers on draft day until the official announcement is made. You should look toward more solid closer situations, but all three are worthy of a selection late in a draft.

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Brad Berreman
Brad Berreman has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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