Bedard Heads West as His Value Heads North

February 19, 2008 @ 06:04:53

By Tim Piotrowski
Edited by Tim Heaney

After weeks of speculation, the trade of starting pitcher Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners finally came to fruition Friday, Feb. 8. The Baltimore Orioles were able to grab their fair share in the deal, acquiring outfielder Adam Jones, left-handed reliever George Sherrill and minor league pitchers Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio.

The Impact of Bedard

Both teams will likely see immediate impact from the trade this season. Bedard was probably one of the best starting pitchers available during the offseason. There was a fight for former Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Johan Santana, who eventually went to the New York Mets, but the Mariners were on Bedard from the beginning and were able to compile the prospects the Orioles were looking for in the deal.

Bedard has already been named the team's opening day starter, so it is safe to assume he will be the ace of the staff. Bedard went 13-5 and posted a 3.14 ERA. He also had a tiny WHIP of 1.09. He held opposing hitters to a .212 batting average and was able to pick up a league-leading 221 strikeouts in only 182 innings. Bedard will likely see slightly better offensive help from his new teammates. The Mariners were able to score 38 more runs than the Orioles did last season, and they also had a better batting average than the Orioles did (.287 for Seattle, .272 for Baltimore).

Bedard has really come into form the past few seasons; he is only 28 years old and is likely hitting his prime as a starting pitcher. He has won at least 13 games in each of the last two seasons. His ERA has dropped in each of his first five seasons, and he has seen his strikeout numbers increase and his opponents' batting average decrease each season. Bedard saw his earned runs, walks and hits decrease from his 2006 totals. However, his home runs allowed total increased from 16 to 19, including 13 on the road.

Bedard should catch a break by moving from Camden Yards in Baltimore, which ranked as the sixth-best hitters' park last year in runs scored, to Safeco Field in Seattle, which is a more moderate pitchers' park. Last season on the road, Bedard went 8-1 with a 3.47 ERA and held his opponents to a .209 batting average. He did have a 2.81 ERA at home and held the opposition to a miserable .215 batting average, but he only went 5-4 in his 13 starts there.

Bedard will likely be a hot commodity during draft day. He has become one of the best starting pitchers in the league, and his age should make him an attractive pick in keeper leagues. His move to Seattle will also mean he will likely be pitching in more meaningful games in September and possibly even October; barring an injury, he could become an important player in a Mariners playoff run, so owners will not have to worry about a younger player taking some of his starts away late in the season. He will also help fellow starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn pick up some of the slack.

The Impact on the Orioles

From the Orioles' point of view, both Jones and Sherrill will likely have fantasy value. Jones will almost certainly become the team's new starting center fielder from opening day on. In Triple-A last season, Jones had a batting average of .314 with 25 home runs and 84 RBIs as well as eight stolen bases. In 65 at-bats with the Mariners, he hit .246 with two home runs and four RBIs. Jones' value will probably increase greatly because he will likely play every day and hit in the middle of the batting order. Camden Yards could also help his power numbers this season. Other fantasy owners will likely know about Jones, so if he is available in the low middle rounds, he would be a nice pickup at that point. He has considerable upside.

Sherrill will also see his value increase if, as expected, he replaces closer Chris Ray (elbow), who is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Sherrill was very impressive as the Mariners' left-handed specialist last season. In 73 appearances, he went 2-0 with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP while recording three saves in the process. He was able to strike out 56 batters in only 45 2/3 innings and held opponents to a .179 batting average last season. Even though Ray could return as early as August, Sherrill is a good pickup in the later rounds as a sleeper closer.

The other three pitchers will probably have zero fantasy value this season. Tillman and Butler played in Single-A last season and Mickolio pitched in Triple-A; they would have to fight to make the Orioles' bullpen coming out of spring training. Tillman was Seattle's top-rated pitching prospect but is still several years away from making the bigs.

With the departure of Bedard, the Orioles' top two pitchers will probably be starting pitchers Jeremy Guthrie and Adam Loewen. It is not known which will start opening day, but both are in the running for the job. They are not fantasy stars but could be decent picks in the middle-to-late rounds. Starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera will likely be the No. 3 starter. Candidates for the other two rotation spots include Troy Patton, Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn and Matt Albers.

The Impact on the Mariners

On the Mariners' side, Jones was expected to be the team's starting right fielder. Current options for the job include outfielders Wladimir Balentien, Brad Wilkerson, Jeremy Reed and Charlton Jimerson. Of this group, Balentien and Wilkerson will receive more consideration. Balentien hit .291 with 24 home runs and 84 RBIs in his first year with Triple-A Tacoma. If he does win the job, Balentien will unlikely be more than a sleeper who may be worthy of a flier in the later rounds. Wilkerson hit .234 with 20 home and 62 RBIs in 338 at-bats with the Texas Rangers. He would be a pickup in the last few rounds at best. Neither Reed nor Jimerson have any significant value at the moment.

Summary

Going into the offseason, Bedard was considered one of the better fantasy starters for the 2008 season, but the trade has helped his value and has made him one of the top starting pitching options on draft day. Bedard should be among the top five starting pitchers chosen in the draft because his numbers will likely be helped by pitching in Safeco Field half of the time.

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Tim Piotrowski
Piotrowski has been a Hot Off the Wire analyst since 2007.

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