Santana Invades the Senior Circuit

February 4, 2008 @ 10:53:29

By Andrew Stewart
Edited by Tim Heaney

When baseball fans weren't being beaten over the head with news about steroids this offseason, they were being beaten over the head with rumors about former Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Johan Santana. The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and New York Mets had been mentioned throughout the media hoopla as the frontrunners to land Santana, with the Twins finally agreeing to a deal with the Mets Tuesday, Jan. 29, for outfielder Carlos Gomez and prospect pitchers Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. Three days later, the Mets reached a landmark contract extension with Santana - the most lucrative contract in history for a pitcher - that will lock him up through the 2014 season and pay him $150.75 million over seven years.

Here He Comes

The National League has often been labeled as a weaker offensive league than the American League, and for the most part, the critics are right. National League pitchers last season had an overall ERA of 4.43, compared to 4.51 in the American League. That being the case, Santana owners need not worry about the pitcher switching leagues; pitchers welcome this change.

This move from the Twins to the Mets should help Santana's fantasy numbers a couple of other ways as well. For example, the Mets scored almost 100 more runs than the Twins last season, and the Twins just lost one of their most potent bats in outfielder Torii Hunter. In 2007, the Mets scored 804 runs - good for fourth in the NL. Meanwhile, the Twins scored 718 runs in 2007 - ranking 12th out of 14 American League teams in runs scored.

In 2007, the Metrodome was the third-most pitcher-friendly park in the major leagues and was the fourth-hardest park for batters to hit home runs out of. However, the park switch shouldn't play too much of a factor in Santana's numbers, as Shea Stadium is also considered to be a pitchers' park. Shea Stadium in 2007 was the eighth-best pitcher's park in terms of runs scored and was the 10th-hardest for hitters to longball out of. Granted, the Mets will leave Shea Stadium after the 2008 season, but the dimensions of the outfield walls are expected to be similar.

Too Much Mileage?

Now that Santana's location and situation changes have been discussed, a legitimate concern for Santana owners is the All-Star's statistical slip from 2006 to 2007. Last season, Santana saw his wins drop by four, his ERA jump by half a point and his home runs allowed increase by nine.

The drop in wins shouldn't be a concern; that is more likely the fault of the Twins' drop in offense than the fault of Santana. The Mets have a much stronger offense than the Twins and should provide Santana with plenty of run support. The home runs allowed are more of a concern. As mentioned above, hitters have an easier time hitting jacks out of Shea than the Metrodome. If Santana can't keep his curveballs down next season, he won't be able to keep his ERA down either.

Santana also has a lot of miles on him for a player who's still relatively young. Santana, who will be 29 before the season starts, has already compiled 1,308 2/3 innings in his major league career. However, plenty of pitchers have been able to be effective well past that mark, and Santana has proven to be very durable over the course of his career.

How Will the Twins Fare?

No matter who you draft, who you sign or who you acquire, no team can simply replace a pitcher like Santana. The Twins will be banking on a healthy Francisco Liriano (elbow) to lead a young and unproven rotation, which also includes Boof Bonser and Scott Baker plus a slew of young prospects vying for a spot. Humber and Mulvey could potentially compete for a spot in the rotation sometime this season.

Guerra, who will turn 19 during the season, is the most promising of the hurlers. The right-hander struck out 66 in 89 2/3 innings at Single-A last season.

Gomez should compete for the starting job in center field with a strong spring showing. The 22-year-old hit .232 with two homers and 12 RBIs last season in 58 games at the major league level. Of course, his 12 stolen bases in that timeframe present his biggest selling point.

Fantasy Impact

Before this trade, Santana was one of the most (if not the most) consistently dominant pitchers in fantasy baseball. This trade, if anything, increases his already sky-high value. In New York, Santana will have much better run support than he had with the Twins and his move to the NL should help keep his ERA low and his strikeouts high. Santana is a high-round draft selection in just about every fantasy format and should be the first starting pitcher selected on draft day.

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Andrew Stewart
Andrew Stewart has been a Hot off the Wire Analyst for KFFL since 2007.

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