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New England Patriots Week 21 Fantasy Analysis

January 31, 2008 @ 11:16:04

By Tim Piotrowski
Edited by Herija C. Green

New England Patriots Fantasy Matchups - Super Bowl

Opponent: vs. New York Giants

The Patriots (18-0) will try to become only the second team in NFL history to finish the season undefeated when they meet the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. This will be the fourth time in the last seven years that the Patriots have gone to the Super Bowl. Both teams won their rematches from Week 2. The Patriots did not have a tremendous game in the AFC Championship Game, but they were able to pull out a victory against the San Diego Chargers, 21-12, to reach the big game. The Giants also had a very tough game and had to go to overtime to secure the victory against the Green Bay Packers to get to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams played a great game in Week 17, and the Patriots will want to show that they can beat the Giants again and the Giants will want to show that the first game was not a fluke and they can hang with AFC Champs and beat them when they meet again.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Tom Brady	3	27	34	275.7	2.33	1.00	-1.7	0.00	+

Brady (ankle) did not have his usual perfect game in the championship. He went 22-for-33 passing for 209 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions in the game. The 30-year–old has seen his passing yards decrease over the past three games as well as his touchdowns, but that is likely because of the quality defenses he has faced in the last two playoff games. About a month ago, the three-time Super Bowl winner threw for 356 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants. The big story leading up to the Super Bowl has been Brady's ankle, but he said the ankle is fine and will be expected to play in the game. Brady is a fine No. 1 quarterback option for fantasy owners this week. He has had some success against the Giants during his career.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Giants	4	23	38	250.0	1.50	1.25	3.5	0.00

The Giants have done a fine job limiting opposing quarterbacks during the playoffs. They allowed Packers quarterback Brett Favre to throw for 236 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, which included an important one in overtime in the championship game. The defense has intercepted a total of five passes during the playoffs.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Laurence Maroney	3	23.00 (37.00)	6.00 (45.09)	1.33	96.7	1.33	1.00	16.3	0.00	+
Kevin Faulk	3	9.33 (15.02)	1.33 (10.02)	0.00	5.0	0.00	7.00	60.7	0.00	+
Heath Evans	3	1.67 (2.68)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	3.7	0.00	0.33	4.3	0.00	N/A
Kyle Eckel	1	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A

Maroney played well again for the team during the AFC Championship Game and is becoming a big factor in the Patriots offense. He rushed for 122 yards and one touchdown on 25 carries against the Chargers. The second-year player has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his last five games. The former first-round draft choice did not have gaudy stats the last time he played the Giants with just 46 yards on 19 carries, but he did score two touchdowns in the game. Maroney is a fantastic No. 1 running back option and a strong play this week.

Faulk did not do much on the ground against the Chargers but did make a huge impact on the game. He rushed for eight yards on one carry in the game but was the team's leading receiver with eight receptions for 82 yards. The 5-foot-8 running back had more receiving yards this season than he did rushing yards, which is why he is used extensively in the shotgun offense. The 31-year-old had success against the Giants in Week 17, catching eight passes for 64 yards in the contest. Faulk is a second tier No. 1 running back option for fantasy owners. He is a strong play this week.

Evans helped his team last game when he was called upon. He rushed for seven yards on two carries as well as one reception for 13 yards in the game. The former third-round draft choice has not seen much action since Maroney started carrying the load, is still a third tier No. 1 running back and a strong play against New York.

Eckel has not seen any action since Week 11, and he has not been active for any of the playoff games so far. If he is active for the Super Bowl, Eckel is also a strong play against the Giants.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	21.2	71.2	1.00	6.25	48.2	0.00

The Giants defense has allowed only one 100-yard rusher of the last five games. They held Packers running back Ryan Grant to 29 yards on 13 carries. However, they have allowed four rushing touchdowns over the last four games, which is a statistic the defense would like to reduce.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Wes Welker	3	10.67 (17.16)	2.00 (15.03)	0.00	9.00	77.3	0.67	+
Randy Moss	3	6.67 (10.73)	1.67 (12.53)	0.33	2.67	44.0	0.67	++
Jabar Gaffney	3	1.33 (2.15)	1.00 (7.52)	0.00	1.33	12.7	0.33	N/A
Donte' Stallworth	3	4.00 (6.44)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	2.67	37.0	0.00	--
Troy Brown	-	---	---	---	---	---	---	N/A

Welker continues to be a consistent producer for the Patriots. He caught seven passes for 56 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game. The 5-foot-9 wide receiver has caught a touchdown in both playoff games this season. The fourth-year player is averaging nine receptions and a little more than 77 yards per game over the last three games. Welker is an outstanding No. 1 wide receiver option with a weak play for owners.

Moss was relatively shut down again two weeks ago against the Chargers. He caught only one pass for 18 yards in the game as well as rushed for 14 yards on one carry. The draft-day acquisition has not been much of a factor in the playoffs, catching only two passes for 32 yards in the two playoff games he has played. Despite the low stat totals, the Marshall University alumnus has scored four touchdowns in his past four games. This week, Moss is a fine No. 1 wide receiver option for fantasy owners, though he is a weak play against New York.

Gaffney was quiet for most of the championship game but did produce when called upon. He caught one pass for 12 yards and a touchdown in the game. The 27-year-old has caught two touchdowns in his last four games and three in the last six. He is averaging only 12.7 receiving yards per game over the last three games played. He is a third tier No. 1 wide receiver this week and a weak play against the Giants in the Super Bowl.

Stallworth, like several of his teammates, did not see many passes come his way last week. He caught two passes for 11 yards in the game. The free-agent acquisition has not caught a touchdown in his last 11 games played. Also, the University of Tennessee alumnus has caught five or more passes in only two of the games he has played in the regular and postseason. Like Gaffney, Stallworth is a third tier No. 1 wide receiver option for fantasy owners. He is a weak play this week.

Brown has only played in one game this season and did not catch a pass in that game. He has been hampered by a knee injury since last offseason. If Brown is active for the Super Bowl, he would be a fourth tier No. 1 option for fantasy owners. He is a weak play this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	11.75	151.5	1.00

The Giants had difficulties stopping Packers wide receiver Donald Driver in the NFC Championship game. He caught five passes for 141 yards and one touchdown in the game. The last time the Giants played the Patriots, they allowed both Welker and Moss to get 100 or more receiving yards.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Benjamin Watson	3	3.67 (5.90)	1.33 (10.02)	0.67	2.33	19.3	0.67	X
Kyle Brady	2	1.00 (1.07)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.50	6.0	0.00	N/A
Stephen Spach	2	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A

Watson did not have many opportunities to put up big statistics last week. He caught one pass for eight yards in the game against San Diego. The 6-foot-3 tight end has caught two touchdowns in the last six games he his played in and both came in the Divisional Round playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Watson is an excellent No. 1 tight end option for fantasy owners this week.

Brady did not catch a pass in the championship game and has only caught a total of 10 passes this season, including the playoffs. This week, Brady is a tier two tight end for fantasy owners.

Spach has helped out in blocking and in special teams but has not caught a pass in his Patriots career. He was signed during the season because of injuries to the tight end position. Spach is also a tier two tight end for owners this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	5.00	50.2	0.50

The Giants have allowed some tight ends to put up some numbers against them during the playoffs. Packers tight end Donald Lee caught three passes for 35 yards and a touchdown in the championship game. In the Divisional Round playoff game, Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten caught seven passes for 81 yards against the Giants.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Stephen Gostkowski	3	1.33	1.67	3.33	3.33	7.3

Gostkowski was perfect again when called upon during the AFC Championship Game. He made all three of his extra point attempts and did not try a field goal during the game. His three points were the lowest total he had all this season. Gostkowski is obviously a No. 1 place kicker option for fantasy owners this week, though he is a weak play against New York.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Giants	4	1.50	1.50	2.25	2.25	6.8

The Giants allowed Packers place kicker Mason Crosby to score eight points during the championship game, kicking two field goals and two extra points. Opposing place kickers are scoring an average of 6.8 points per game against the Giants over the last three games.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Patriots	3	20.3	325.7	1.00	1.33	0.67

The Patriots caught a bit of a break in the AFC Championship Game because the Chargers were not completely healthy, but they were able to hold the high-powered offense to only 12 points. They intercepted quarterback Philip Rivers twice in the game and did not allow the Chargers to score a single touchdown. The Patriots have held opponents to 20 or less points in five of their last six games. This week, the Patriots defense is a fantastic No. 1 defense for fantasy owners. The defense is a strong play against the Giants.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Giants	4	29.5	300.8	1.75	0.25	0.25

Quarterback Eli Manning has led the Giants during their march through the playoffs. He has thrown for 599 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions during the three playoff games. The receiving corps is led by wide receivers Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. Burress has 194 receiving yards so far in the playoffs; Toomer has caught three touchdown passes in the playoffs as well. The Giants offense is balanced and has found a tandem at running back. Running back Brandon Jacobs is the team's leading rusher and is the bruising running back while running back Ahmad Bradshaw is the change-of-pace back that sometimes spells Jacobs for a series at a time.