New York Giants Week 21 Fantasy Analysis

January 31, 2008 @ 11:14:00

By Jack Douglas
Edited by Herija C. Green

New York Giants Fantasy Matchups - Super Bowl

Opponent: vs. New England Patriots

The Giants (13-6) take their 10-game road-winning streak down to Arizona this week to play the undefeated Patriots (18-0) in Super Bowl XLII. The Giants are hot and have dispatched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, all being road wins. They have done it with stellar defense, the tandem running combination of running backs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, the resurgent receiving corps and error-free ball by quarterback Eli Manning. This week look for the Giants to use more of the same formula and hope to pressure the Patriots into mistakes. The Giants led the league in sacks in the regular season and figure to need all of that pressure against the Patriots. This game is also interesting because the Patriots are trying to become the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to go undefeated for an entire season.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Eli Manning	4	19	29	213.2	2.00	0.25	4.8	0.00	++

Manning has played quite well in the last four games, averaging two touchdown passes per game while throwing only one pass interception in the last four games combined. In Week 17 against the Patriots, Manning went 22-for-32 for 251 passing yards, four touchdowns and just one interception. In the warm weather of Arizona, a similar outing is distinctly possible. Since that game, Manning has not thrown an interception.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Patriots	3	21	34	246.7	2.00	1.33	9.0	0.00

The Patriots defense has been vulnerable to enemy quarterbacks during the last three games (four weeks). Playing in the warmth of Arizona, they may be vulnerable to Manning this week especially if the Giants control the clock and keep them on the field in the desert heat.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Brandon Jacobs	4	18.50 (31.02)	3.75 (30.98)	1.00	55.5	0.75	2.25	18.2	0.50	X
Ahmad Bradshaw	3	14.33 (18.03)	2.33 (14.46)	0.33	54.3	0.33	1.00	8.0	0.00	N/A
Madison Hedgecock	4	0.25 (0.42)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00	0.25	1.2	0.00	N/A
Reuben Droughns	4	0.25 (0.42)	0.25 (2.07)	0.00	-0.2	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A

Jacobs forms half of an effective one-two punch the Giants have developed late in the season. Teaming up with Bradshaw, Jacobs has been effective this postseason in the run to the Super Bowl. The main thing helping his fantasy numbers is the fact that he is finding ways to score touchdowns, as evidenced by his total of five in the last four games. In Week 17 against the Patriots, Jacobs rushed 15 times for 67 yards and though he failed to reach the end zone via the ground, he did catch five balls for 44 yards and one touchdown. Jacobs should be a good fantasy play this weekend.

Bradshaw continues to shine late in the season. It is interesting to note that the Giants have not been afraid to feed the rookie the ball with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, so he remains a solid fantasy play this week. In Week 17, Bradshaw did not play, so the Patriots defense has not seen him live yet, which might be to Bradshaw's advantage.

Hedgecock remains mostly a blocking fullback, and his fantasy chances are not enough to warrant starting him. He probably should not be on your roster.

Droughns is a weak play as in the last month he has done essentially nothing.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Patriots	3	19.0	78.7	0.00	5.33	38.7	0.33

The Patriots have a strong rush defense and should prove a stern test for the Giants running backs.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Amani Toomer	4	6.75 (11.32)	1.25 (10.33)	0.50	4.75	59.2	0.75	-
Plaxico Burress	4	7.50 (12.58)	1.50 (12.39)	0.75	5.00	70.2	0.50	++
Steve Smith	4	5.50 (9.22)	1.75 (14.46)	0.00	3.00	32.8	0.00	X
David Tyree	4	1.25 (2.10)	0.50 (4.13)	0.25	0.75	1.8	0.00	N/A
Domenik Hixon	4	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A
Sinorice Moss	-	--	--	--	--	--	--	--

Toomer rates as a clear No. 1 play this week. He has come to life in the playoffs. In Week 17 of the regular season, he caught four passes for 41 yards and no touchdowns. If the Patriots worry too much about stopping Burress this week, that might really help to open things up for Toomer to have a big Super Bowl. Near the end of his career, no doubt there is nothing Toomer would like more than to be a Super Bowl hero and possibly close out his career.

Burress was on fire in the NFC Conference Championship Game, torching the Packers for 11 receptions for 154 receiving yards and no scores. To put it mildly, Burress abused the Packers. It is likely the Patriots will prepare especially hard to stop Burress, so this could be quite a battle. In Green Bay, Burress looked unstoppable in man-to-man coverage and dominated much of the game, despite miserable weather conditions.

Smith has come on late in the season and has developed into a respectable third wide receiver for the Giants. His long-term potential is high, but right now he is just a mid-level receiver in the Super Bowl.

Tyree is mostly a special teams player still. Though the Giants have used him some lately in the passing game, he simply does not produce enough to warrant being on your fantasy squad.

Hixon hasn't been involved in an offensive play during the last month, while Moss (back) has been inactive because of a back injury.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Patriots	3	12.00	158.7	1.33

The Patriots defense is vulnerable to the passing game, opening up chances for Manning and his receivers. In Week 17, the Giants passing game played well against New England, and Manning lit them up for 251 passing yards and four touchdown passes. Two of those went to the wide receiver position.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Kevin Boss	4	3.75 (6.29)	0.75 (6.20)	0.25	2.00	23.8	0.25	+
Michael Matthews	4	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A

Boss, a rookie, has seemingly arrived as a promising young tight end. He rates as a reasonable fantasy tight end right now, even though this is his rookie season. In Week 17, he caught four passes for 50 receiving yards and one touchdown. He could be a real sleeper this week in the Super Bowl. If the Patriots work too hard to take away Burress and the Giants running game, that might open up some opportunities for Boss to shine.

Matthews is a non-factor offensively.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Patriots	3	3.67	49.3	0.33

The Giants may be able to complete some passes to the tight end position against this defense, but statistically they are not yielding many touchdowns to enemy tight ends.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Lawrence Tynes	4	1.00	1.50	3.25	3.25	6.2

Other than some inconsistency, Tynes is a decent kicker. Fortunately for him, he was able to connect on a 47-yarder in Green Bay in overtime last weekend, or he would have been the goat of goats. This could be a high-scoring game and if so, he should have lots of chances to accumulate points. In Green Bay he had to contend with the horrible cold and wind. In Arizona, the weather should be much nicer and the crowd more of a non-factor as it likely will have plenty of fans for both teams.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Patriots	3	2.00	2.00	2.33	2.33	8.3

The Giants scored 35 points against the Patriots in Week 17, and this defense is yielding two field goals per game and more than two touchdowns per game over the last three games. In the warm weather of Arizona, this could turn into a shoot out.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 17-20

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Giants	4	23.0	315.2	1.00	1.25	0.25

For the 2007 season, the Giants led the league in sacks. In the last four games, they are getting fewer sacks. Over the last four games, they have averaged one sack and slightly more than one interception per game. Nonetheless, they remain a threat to force turnovers and get sacks in any game as they bring lots of pressure under the attacking style of first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. In the Week 17 contest between these two teams, the Giants picked up one interception, harried quarterback Tom Brady most of the game and brought a lot of pressure.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Patriots	3	29.3	380.0	1.33	1.00	0.00

Needless to say, the prolific Patriots offense should present a major challenge to the Giants defense in the Super Bowl. They don't fumble much; allow few sacks and one interception per game, based on the last three games (four weeks). To control them, the Giants will have to contend with both an effective passing and running game. Recent games have shown that even when wide receiver Randy Moss is contained, other players rise up and meet the challenge. For these reasons, the Giants are a weak play this week on defense.

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Jack Douglas

Jack Douglas is an attorney and a freelance writer who has been playing fantasy football and baseball since 1991. He has played in many different leagues using different rules and has captured several championships. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2000

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