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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 21

January 29, 2008 @ 12:27:57

By Matthew Wilson and James Eberspacher
Edited by Herija C. Green

Welcome to the last edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature for the 2007 season. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players who aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk, New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Maroney	3	96.7	1.33	1.00	16.3	0.00
Faulk	3	5.0	0.00	7.00	60.7	0.00
Giants vs. Pos.	4	71.2	1.00	6.25	48.2	0.00

Did you do it? Were you one of dedicated owners that hung on to Maroney the entire season? If you did, more power to you. It must have been a tough season sitting through week after week of injury concerns and underperforming. Whether you fit this bill, or are someone who grabbed Maroney in your playoff league, the time has come for you to get paid - perhaps, literally. Maroney is healthy and is finally performing like a first-round fantasy pick. In the last three games, he is getting plenty of touches, 23 per game with six in the red zone (1.33 inside the 5). Maroney has turned those touches into more than 100 offensive yards and one touchdown per game.

One thing you have to love about fantasy football this late in the game are the little guys that you rely on to win. One of those guys is Faulk. Even though he is only gaining a miniscule five yards per game the last three games, he is likely getting you solid points; especially in point-per-reception leagues. His seven receptions and 60.7 yards per game make him worthy in any league.

This week is looking like a solid matchup for both players as they face the Giants for the second time this season. In the final week of the season, the Giants gave up 48 rushing yards, 64 yards on eight receptions and two rushing touchdowns, to the Patriots running backs. According to the numbers, there should be plenty to go around for Maroney (71.2 rushing yards and one touchdown) and Faulk (6.25 receptions and 48.2 yards). Start both backs this week, with Maroney as the obvious choice over Faulk.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants at New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jacobs	4	55.5	0.75	2.25	18.2	0.50
Bradshaw	3	54.3	0.33	1.00	8.0	0.00
Patriots vs. Pos.	3	78.7	0.00	5.33	38.7	0.33

Jacobs and Bradshaw... Weren't they WWE tag team champions? Maybe not, but they are performing like a well-tuned team. Jacobs is totaling 73.7 offensive yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game since the final week of the season. Meanwhile in three games, Bradshaw is averaging 62.3 offensive yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game. With Jacobs leading the charge and Bradshaw used as a change-of-pace back, the underdog Giants have upset every team they faced in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, this tag team has to face the undefeated Patriots; a team on a mission. Over the last three games, the Patriots have allowed running backs to gain some ground - 78.7 rushing yards and 38.7 receiving yards per game - but they have only allowed one total touchdown (a receiving touchdown to the Giants) to the position. Jacobs is your obvious choice as a No. 1 back, but Bradshaw can be used in the same slot. Both are weak plays though.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Randy Moss, New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Moss	3	2.67	44.0	0.67
Giants vs. Pos.	4	11.75	151.5	1.00

"I play when I want to play!" You've probably heard that now infamous quote from the gifted wide receiver a million times. Well, it seems that this season he has wanted to play. After looking like a shell of his former self for a couple of seasons, Moss has exploded and risen to elite status once again. So far during the playoffs, teams have done a pretty good job at keeping Moss from beating them. Just look at his numbers over the last three games. However, we all know what he is capable of doing in big games.

As we stated earlier, the Patriots and Giants met during the final week of the regular season. In that game, Moss destroyed the Giants secondary for six catches, 100 yards and two touchdowns. Before you get all jacked up, be careful about Moss going off like that again. If the Giants are going to do anything, they are going to try to not let Moss beat them. The key word here is "try." Moss may be a weak play, if for no other reason than as a temper your expectations factor. By the way, no wideout is a strong play this week. Even with the weak play, start Moss as your No. 1 fantasy receiver.

Place Kickers - Weak Play

Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Gostkowski	3	1.67	1.33	3.33	3.33	7.3
Giants vs. Pos.	4	1.50	1.50	2.25	2.25	6.8

If you've been a regular reader of our weekly Strong Play/Weak Play article, we know you're well aware of our fantasy issues with Gostkowski. Although he tallied the second-highest number of actual kicking points in the league during the regular season (137), Gostkowski, more times than not, amassed disappointing week-to-week scoring numbers, because his per-game extra point attempts usually outnumbered his per-game field goal tries by a wide margin. With an unfavorable matchup on tap this Sunday, we're expecting yet another pedestrian-at-best point total from "Gosty." After notching eight actual kicking points against the Giants in Week 17, Gostkowski has averaged just five actual kicking points per game in two playoff contests.

The highest number of actual kicking points scored against the Giants in a game during the last four weeks was the aforementioned total amassed by Gostkowski. Since that contest, New York has yielded just five actual kicking points per outing in three playoff games. After crunching the numbers, it's hard to see Gostkowski topping his Week 17 point total against New York.

Team Defenses - Strong Play

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Patriots Def.	3	20.3	325.7	1.00	1.33	0.67
Giants Off.	4	29.5	300.8	1.75	0.25	0.25

If you need to choose a team defense for your lineup, we think the smart money is on the battled-tested unit that has a huge advantage in playoff experience and a defensive genius like head coach Bill Belichick designing its game plan. The Patriots did look soft against the run late in the regular season but have yielded just 78.7 rushing yards per contest to enemy running backs during the last month (three games played). In two playoff contests, New England has allowed just 16 points per game and has not given up an offensive touchdown in six straight quarters. Granted, the Patriots' sack numbers have been disappointing lately. When they faced the Giants back in Week 17, they notched only one sack, but we think they will do a much better job of pressuring quarterback Eli Manning this time around.

Winners of 10 straight road games, the Giants have played surprisingly well on offense during the last four weeks. Although they have struggled occasionally in pass protection, New York has done a very good job of minimizing turnovers. Manning has committed no turnovers in his last three games, but we think that streak will come to an abrupt end this week. New England likely will smother the Giants rushing attack, forcing Manning to abandon his role as a game manager and carry the offense, which is when we suspect the turnovers and sacks will come. Belichick has confused some of the best quarterbacks in the league with his defensive schemes, and Manning likely will have his problems Sunday.

Team Defenses - Weak Play

New York Giants at New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Giants Def.	4	23.0	315.2	1.00	1.25	0.25
Patriots Off.	3	29.3	380.0	1.33	1.00	0.00

We're not purposely ignoring the impressive performance of the Giants defense during the club's playoff run. This unit successfully throttled the offenses of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers, which ranked No. 18, No. 3 and No. 2, respectively, in total offense during the close of the regular season. Nevertheless, the "G-Men" yielded 38 points and 390 total net yards to New England when the two teams met back in Week 17, and we have no reason to believe they will do a much better job of containing quarterback Tom Brady and company in this rematch. The 23 points and 315.2 total yards allowed per game by the Giants during the last four weeks are respectable numbers but hardly a sign of domination. Although the Giants forced turnover numbers look decent, their vaunted pass rush has disappeared.

Is there anything we can tell you about the prolific New England offense that you don't already know? Although stud wide receiver Randy Moss has been held to just two receptions for 32 yards and zero touchdowns in two playoff games, the club is still rolling up points and yardage, and obviously winning football games. The Patriots have done an outstanding job of protecting the passer and keeping their turnovers to a minimum during the last month (three games played). However, watching Packers wide receiver Donald Driver turn a short reception into a 90-yard touchdown jaunt when he should have been tackled for a short gain during the NFC Championship Game reaffirmed our fears about the suspect Giants secondary. Moss and Brady burned the New York defensive backfield on a 65-yard touchdown bomb back in Week 17, and we think the duo will come up huge against New York in the rematch.

Author Bio

Matthew Wilson
Matt Wilson is a lifelong college and pro football fan who proudly touts the Michigan Wolverines and the Chicago Bears as his two favorite teams. Matt discovered fantasy football in 1999 and has been addicted to it ever since. His professional background includes a four-year stint as a news reporter for a Chicago-area radio station. Matt was sports director for his college television station at Northern Illinois. Seeking a new challenge, Matt joined KFFL in 2004.

Author Bio

James Eberspacher

James Eberspacher has been Commissioner of a "high performance" fantasy football league since 1994. He has created an entertaining and challenging league by designing a unique scoring system and a creative sense of writing and style. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.