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Green Bay Packers Week 20 Fantasy Analysis

January 17, 2008 @ 05:24:04

By Jason Hoffmann
Edited by Herija C. Green

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Matchups - NFC Championship Game

Opponent: vs. New York Giants

And then, there were four. After months of grueling practices, hours of game film and 19 weeks of action, the number of NFL teams still hoping to take home the Lombardi Trophy has been whittled down to four worthy competitors. Two of those four teams will square off at Lambeau Field this week, as the Packers (14-3) play host to the Giants (13-5) to see who will represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLII.

Last week, Green Bay spotted the Seattle Seahawks (12-6) a 14-0 lead after only four minutes of play, but they roared back to score touchdowns on their next six possessions en route to a 42-20 victory. Meanwhile, the Giants won their second straight road contest of the playoffs by knocking off the NFC's No. 1 seed, the Dallas Cowboys (13-4), by a 21-17 margin. As both teams attempt to punch their tickets to Glendale, Arizona, for the Super Bowl festivities, let's take a look at the fantasy outlook from Green Bay's side of the ball.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Brett Favre	3	15	22	141.7	1.67	0.67	7.0	0.00	+

Last week, Favre had 18 completions and three touchdowns in what was a dazzling display of quarterback play. Favre used a wide variety of passes in his arsenal - laser strikes across the middle, touch passes in the red zone, and even an underhanded shovel pass as he was losing his balance. Favre was in vintage form a week ago, but he faces a difficult Giants pass rush this week. For fantasy purposes, Favre ranks third among the quarterbacks still playing this Sunday.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Giants	4	20	36	231.2	1.50	1.50	5.5	0.00

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 1.5 touchdowns per game against the Giants' defense over the last month, but that doesn't mean things have been easy for them. Quarterbacks completed only 55.6 percent of their passes against New York in their last four games, and they were sacked 1.8 times and intercepted 1.5 times per contest in that time.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Ryan Grant	3	17.00 (29.50)	4.00 (36.37)	2.00	119.3	1.67	1.00	5.00	0.00	N/A
Brandon Jackson	3	12.33 (21.41)	1.67 (15.15)	0.00	57.3	0.00	1.33	16.0	0.33	N/A
Vernand Morency	3	4.00 (6.94)	0.33 (3.03)	0.00	5.0	0.00	1.67	13.7	0.00	N/A

Grant's magical run as a fantasy stud appeared to end suddenly last week after he lost fumbles on two of his first three touches, but the Packers stuck with Grant. That move paid huge dividends for the Packers, because Grant scored three touchdowns and set a Packers playoff record with 201 yards rushing. He rates as the best fantasy option at running back with a strong play this week, so expect another big week on the fantasy front from Grant.

Jackson played a prominent role as the backup to Grant last week. He was utilized nine times in the game, eight times on the ground and once through the air. Jackson gained 34 yards rushing and took a swing pass from Favre 13 yards for the Packers' fifth touchdown of the game. It was also the first receiving touchdown by a Packers running back all season. Jackson is a strong play against the Giants, but he is only a low No. 2 or high No. 3 option for fantasy owners.

Morency was not utilized last week, and he really hasn't done much of anything all season. However, he is a strong play as either a No. 2 or No. 3 back this week, but that is because there aren't many options to choose from.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	24.2	91.5	1.25	5.50	54.0	0.00

The Giants defense ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game to running backs in the last four weeks. However, it has allowed more than a touchdown per game to the position and has allowed opposing running backs to pile up their fair share of yardage in the passing game.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Greg Jennings	2	6.50 (7.52)	1.50 (9.09)	0.50	4.50	56.5	1.00	N/A
Donald Driver	2	5.00 (5.79)	0.50 (3.03)	0.00	3.50	25.0	0.00	+
Koren Robinson	3	3.67 (6.36)	1.50 (9.09)	0.50	2.00	19.7	0.33	N/A
Ruvell Martin	3	2.33 (4.05)	0.33 (3.03)	0.00	0.67	15.3	0.33	N/A
James Jones	3	3.33 (5.79)	0.33 (3.03)	0.00	1.67	18.7	0.00	X
Shaun Bodiford	1	1.00 (1.63)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	1.00	13.0	0.00	N/A

Jennings was once again the leading fantasy receiver for Green Bay last week. He was targeted eight times in the game and finished with six receptions for 71 yards and two touchdowns. Jennings didn't suit up for the Packers' meeting with New York in Week 2, but he should make up for lost time Sunday night. Consider Jennings a solid No. 1 fantasy receiver against the Giants.

Driver was targeted four times in the Seahawks game and finished with three catches, but he only amassed 18 receiving yards. It was a season low in yardage for Driver, who has clearly taken a backseat to Jennings both on the field and in the fantasy ranks. Driver had a solid game in Week 2 against the Giants (eight catches, 73 yards) and is a No. 2 option at wide receiver this week.

Robinson (knee) was not targeted in the Seahawks game and was limited to spot duty because of a knee injury. Robinson was still serving his yearlong suspension when the Packers and Giants met in Week 2, so this would be his first outing against the G-Men. He is expected to be ready to go this week, but he is a shaky fantasy option because of the injury concerns. Robinson rates as a No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy option if healthy, so check with KFFL throughout the week to monitor his progress.

Martin was unable to grab the only pass thrown his way last week. He has only 16 receptions in 16 games this season, including zero catches in the Giants game earlier in the year, but four of his receptions resulted in touchdowns. In fantasy terms, Martin is a great example of a high-risk, high-reward type of player. If you feel like being risky, Martin is a No. 2 or No. 3 option at receiver this week.

After it appeared that he had fallen behind Robinson and Martin on the depth charts, Jones assumed the No. 3 slot last week and produced decent results. Jones was targeted four times and finished with three catches for 42 yards. Jones led the Packers with 75 receiving yards on four catches against the Giants in Week 2, but he is only a No. 3 option for fantasy purposes this week.

Bodiford was inactive for last week's contest with Seattle and should not be in fantasy lineups this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	10.50	132.8	1.00

The Giants have surrendered a touchdown per game to opposing wide receivers, but they have held the position in check when it comes to receptions and yardage totals. Like last week, only Jennings and Driver, to a lesser extent, are the Packers receivers that can be considered safe fantasy options.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Donald Lee	2	3.00 (3.47)	1.00 (6.47)	0.00	1.50	9.0	0.50	X
Bubba Franks	3	2.00 (3.47)	0.67 (6.47)	0.33	1.67	16.3	0.33	X
Ryan Krause	1	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A

The Packers didn't use their tight ends much in the passing game against Seattle. Favre only threw three passes to the position in the game. Lee was the target of two of the three tosses, including Favre's underhanded fling, and he finished with two catches and 16 yards receiving. Franks caught the only pass thrown his way, gaining seven yards on the play.

The position's outlook is a little brighter this week, especially considering that Lee and Franks both had four receptions and a touchdown catch in the team's earlier meeting with the Giants. However, they may still be limited because the Packers could look to use their five-wide receiver set more this week. Lee is either a low-tiered starting option or someone that should be benched this week. Franks has a better fantasy outlook than Lee this week and is a decent starting option.

Krause has no fantasy value and should not be on your team.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	4.50	44.5	0.50

Over the last four weeks, the Giants rank in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of receptions and yards allowed to opposing tight ends. That's why both Franks and Lee have such positive outlooks despite their mediocre numbers of late.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP Att/G	XP/G	Kick Pts/G
Mason Crosby	3	0.67	0.67	3.67	3.67	5.7

Crosby was held to six points in the divisional round, with all of his scoring coming via extra points. The story was the same when the Packers visited the Giants in Week 2 - Crosby finished with five extra points and zero field goals for five total points. His fantasy prospects don't look much brighter this week, as he's facing a New York squad that has allowed a total of four field goal attempts in their last four games. Crosby is a weak play this week and is the lowest-rated fantasy option among the four remaining place kickers.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP Att/G	XP/G	Kick Pts/G
Giants	4	1.00	1.00	2.50	2.50	5.5

The Giants have allowed only 5.5 points to opposing kickers in their last four games, and they surrendered just seven total points to kickers in their two playoff wins. Crosby better take advantage of the opportunities he gets, because they could be limited this week.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Packers	3	18.7	244.3	0.67	0.67	0.33

Green Bay's defense came up big in the win over Seattle, holding the Seahawks offense to just 200 yards of total offense and only 28 yards rushing for the game. However, the Packers defense did not do much on the fantasy front, with only two sacks and a fumble recovery on the game. That has been a common theme for Green Bay's defense over the last four weeks. Only one defense in the NFL has allowed fewer yards per game than Green Bay in that span, but they are averaging only 0.67 sacks and one forced turnover per outing. From a fantasy perspective, the Packers defense ranks third among the four defenses that will take the field this Sunday.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Giants	4	30.2	302.0	1.75	0.75	0.50

The Giants offense has averaged more points than Green Bay's offense over the last four weeks. That is impressive considering they have done so without tight end Jeremy Shockey (leg), who was lost for the year with a broken leg in Week 16. Quarterback Eli Manning hasn't been flashy or put up monster passing yardage, but he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his last three games. The running game has also been highly effective, as speedy running back Ahmad Bradshaw has emerged as a perfect complement to running back Brandon Jacobs' powerful running style. Opposing defenses haven't generated many fantasy points against New York in the last month, as they are averaging only 1.25 turnovers forced (0.75 interceptions, 0.5 fumble recoveries) and 1.75 sacks per contest.

Author Bio

Jason Hoffmann

A lifelong Wisconsin resident, Jason Hoffmann has seen plenty of good (Green Bay Packers) and bad (Milwaukee Brewers) in sports. Armed with a statistics degree from UW-Madison, Hoffmann prides himself in finding important trends that cannot be seen by simply scanning box scores. Hoffmann has been involved in competitive fantasy baseball and basketball since 1999 and a KFFL contributor since 2004.