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New England Patriots Week 20 Fantasy Analysis

January 17, 2008 @ 05:24:16

By Tim Piotrowski
Edited by Matthew Wilson

New England Patriots Fantasy Matchups - Week 20

Opponent: vs. San Diego Chargers

The New England Patriots (17-0) will play in their fifth American Football Conference championship game in the last seven seasons when they host the San Diego Chargers (13-5). Both teams won in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last weekend. An extra week of rest did not hurt the Patriots, who had to come back from a deficit early in their game to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) 31-20. The Chargers were able to pull off a 28-24 upset of the Indianapolis Colts (13-4) last weekend, despite losing the services of both quarterback Philip Rivers (knee) and running back LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) for lengthy portions of the game.

This AFC title game will be a rematch of a Week 2 contest between the two clubs, which the Patriots won 38-14 at Gillette Stadium. By the way, this is just the second time that New England has played at home in their last five conference championship appearances. The last time the Patriots clinched a conference title at home was 2003 when they beat the Colts.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Tom Brady	3	25	34	277.7	2.67	0.67	2.7	0.00	+

Brady had another record-setting game last week against the Jaguars. He went 26-for-28 for 262 yards with three touchdown passes and zero interceptions. The 2007 National Football League Most Valuable Player completed 92.6 percent of his passes in that contest, which is a single-game record in either the regular season or the playoffs. The 30-year-old Brady has thrown for at least two touchdowns in five of his last six games. This week, Brady is an outstanding No. 1 quarterback option and obviously a must-start for fantasy owners. He has had success against the Chargers during his career.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Chargers	4	22	35	229.8	1.00	1.50	12.0	0.00

The Chargers allowed quarterback Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts) to throw for 402 yards and three touchdowns last week, but they did intercept him twice. San Diego has intercepted opposing quarterbacks an average of 1.5 times per game during the last four weeks.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Laurence Maroney	3	19.33 (31.02)	3.33 (32.13)	1.00	108.0	1.33	0.67	13.3	0.00	X
Kevin Faulk	3	9.00 (14.44)	1.00 (9.64)	0.00	12.0	0.00	4.67	36.3	0.00	N/A

Maroney continued his good play last week against Jacksonville. He rushed for 122 yards and one touchdown on 22 carries in the game. This is the third time in the last four games that the former first-round draft choice has topped the 100-yard rushing mark. The University of Minnesota product has also scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four games. Maroney is a solid play as a No. 1 running back for fantasy owners. He has had average success against San Diego during his career.

Faulk struggled on the ground against the Jaguars, rushing for nine yards on four carries, but he also caught five passes for 36 yards. The 5-foot-8 running back has caught at least one pass in every game in which he has played this season and has carried the ball at least once in 15 games played this season. Faulk is a decent play as a low-end No. 2 or a high-end No. 3 running back for fantasy owners this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Chargers	4	22.2	79.5	0.25	6.00	42.8	0.00

The Chargers have allowed only one rushing touchdown to opposing running backs during the last four weeks. They did a fine job of holding running back Joseph Addai (Indianapolis Colts) in check on the ground last week, limiting him to just 43 yards rushing. Addai, however, burned San Diego through the air, catching nine balls for 67 yards, which is why we think both Maroney and Faulk will be active in the passing game this week.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Randy Moss	3	9.00 (14.44)	2.67 (25.70)	0.67	4.00	54.7	1.33	++
Wes Welker	3	10.00 (16.05)	1.33 (12.85)	0.00	8.33	75.0	0.33	X
Jabar Gaffney	3	3.67 (5.88)	0.67 (6.43)	0.00	2.67	36.0	0.33	N/A
Donte' Stallworth	3	3.67 (5.88)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	2.67	41.7	0.00	-
Chad Jackson	1	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A
Kelley Washington	3	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A
Troy Brown	1	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A

Moss was quiet last week in terms of statistics. He had only one reception for 14 yards against the Jaguars, which was his worst game of the season. The 6-foot-4 wide receiver has caught six touchdowns in his last four games. The 2007 draft-day acquisition has been targeted an average of 2.67 times per game inside the red zone during the last month (three games). Moss, as we're sure you know, is a top wide receiver option for fantasy owners. Although he is rated as a weak play against the Chargers, Moss is obviously a must-start. He has had a lot of success against San Diego during his career.

Welker had a nice game against Jacksonville, catching nine passes for 54 yards and one touchdown. He also had one rushing attempt for 13 yards. The fourth-year player had not caught a touchdown in his past two games before that scoring grab against the Jaguars. The Texas Tech product has averaged 8.33 receptions and 75 receiving yards per contest during the last four weeks (three games), which leads all Patriots receivers during that span. Welker is a weak play as a low-end No. 1 wide receiver option or a high-end No. 2 wide receiver option for owners. He has had average success against the Chargers during his career.

Gaffney did not play a huge role in Brady's record-setting performance against the Jaguars, catching just three passes for 26 yards. The 27-year-old wide receiver has been a bit inconsistent during the last few weeks, but he has caught four touchdowns in his last seven games. This week, Gaffney is a No. 2 wide receiver option for fantasy owners but a weak play against the Chargers.

Stallworth had a pretty good game statistically in the team's win against Jacksonville. He caught three passes for 68 yards. Stallworth has caught at least one pass in 16 of the 17 games in which he has played this season. Stallworth has averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game during the last month (three games). He is a weak play as a No. 2 wide receiver option for fantasy owners. Stallworth has struggled against San Diego during his career.

Jackson did not catch a pass against the Jaguars but did do some damage in the return game, returning four kickoffs for 78 yards. If you own Jackson, he should be left on the bench. He is a weak play against the Chargers.

Washington was a non-factor in the playoff game last week. He was active for all but two games during the regular season but did not catch any passes during those games. Washington is a weak play and should be benched this week against the Chargers.

Brown did not catch a pass against Jacksonville. He had played in just one game during the regular season due to a lingering knee injury. Owners should put Brown on the bench this week. He is a weak play against San Diego.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Chargers	4	8.50	102.0	0.75

San Diego gave up two touchdowns to Colts wide receivers last week. The Chargers have allowed an average of 102 receiving yards per game to enemy wide receivers during the last four weeks.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Benjamin Watson	2	4.50 (4.81)	1.50 (9.64)	0.50	3.00	25.0	1.00	+
Kyle Brady	1	1.00 (0.53)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	1.00	12.0	0.00	N/A
Stephen Spach	2	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00	N/A

Watson did not log a lot of catches or receiving yards last week but was very important to the team's victory. He caught two passes for 12 yards and two touchdowns in the game. The former first-round draft choice has averaged one touchdown per contest during the last four weeks (three games). Watson is a No. 1 tight end option and a strong play this week. He has had some success against the Chargers during his career.

Brady caught one pass for 12 yards against Jacksonville. The 36-year-old is coming back from a foot injury that forced him to miss the final two games of the regular season. Brady is a strong play as a marginal No. 1 tight end option. If you have a better option, Brady should be left on the bench.

Spach was signed late in the regular season and has been active for the last four games, but he has not caught a pass. Spach is a weak play and should be benched.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Chargers	4	6.50	79.8	0.25

The Chargers struggled against tight end Dallas Clark (Indianapolis Colts) last week. He caught six passes for 95 yards and one touchdown during the game. The Chargers have allowed opposing tight ends to average 79.8 receiving yards per game during the last four weeks.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Stephen Gostkowski	3	1.33	1.67	3.67	3.67	7.7

Gostkowski was given several opportunities to put up points against the Jaguars, but he was not perfect. The University of Memphis product made only one of his two field goal attempts during the game but did make all four of his extra point attempts. Gostkowski is a good No. 1 place kicker option for fantasy owners this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Chargers	4	1.25	1.75	1.25	1.25	5.0

The Chargers have not allowed opposing place kickers to score a lot of points during the last four weeks. Last week, place kicker Adam Vinatieri (Indianapolis Colts) made his only field goal attempt and converted all three of his extra point attempts against San Diego.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 16-19

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Patriots	3	18.7	302.3	3.00	0.67	0.33

Last week, the Patriots did contain the talented running back tandem of Fred Taylor (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars), but they did struggle a bit against quarterback David Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars), who threw for 278 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

New England has allowed a little more than 302 total yards per game during the last four weeks (three games). The Patriots also have recorded three sacks per game during that span. This week, the Patriots defense is a strong play as a No. 1 unit for fantasy owners.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Chargers	4	30.0	337.0	1.00	0.50	0.50

At press time, the Chargers were in a state of uncertainty because of injuries to their three top weapons: Rivers (knee), Tomlinson (knee) and tight end Antonio Gates (toe). Tomlinson was expected to play. However, the playing status of Rivers was unknown, and Gates was listed as a game-time decision. Given the obvious importance of this game, we suspect Rivers and Gates will both try to play. There was some good news for San Diego on the injury front: starting fullback Lorenzo Neal (fibula) was expected to return, but it was unknown whether he would start.

The Chargers have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last eight games. They have also been very efficient on offense, giving up only one sack per game and throwing just 0.5 interceptions per contest during the last month.