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Z - Impact Analysis

Third Basemen Find New Roosts

January 16, 2008 @ 15:55:09

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By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Herija C. Green

The dominoes continue to tumble in the world of baseball as third baseman Scott Rolen was traded from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for third baseman Troy Glaus. The deal was officially completed Monday, Jan. 14 after the two players passed their respective physicals.

Rolen's contract appears to be a gamble for the Blue Jays as he is owed $36 million over the next three seasons, while Glaus is owed $23.5 million over the next two campaigns, which includes his 2009 player option worth $11.5 million. In addition, the Blue Jays sent roughly $1.8 million over to St. Louis as part of the rare one-for-one swap.

Switching Nests

Rolen joins former Cardinals shortstop David Eckstein on a team that seems to be reaching for every available asset to stay relevant in the most competitive division in all of baseball. In addition, the trade was accelerated by Rolen's volatile relationship with Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa.

Last season, Rolen hit .265 with eight home runs, 58 RBI and 55 runs scored in 392 injury-plagued at-bats. Plus, for the second time in three seasons, Rolen was limited to less than 115 games. This time it was due to soreness in his surgically repaired left shoulder, which resulted in season-ending surgery once again in mid-September.

As the disappointments continue to mount for the 32-year-old veteran, so do the teams, as he is joining his third club in 12 seasons. The 2007 campaign was disappointing for Rolen's owners, especially after he hit his usual .296 in 2006 with 48 doubles, 22 home runs, 95 RBI, 94 runs scored and a .887 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) in 521 at-bats.

Rolen's first season in the American League should be interesting to say the least. He is set to be inserted into a lineup that currently features outfield sluggers Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, designated hitter Frank Thomas and up-and-coming second baseman Aaron Hill.

The comfort of having Eckstein around should help Rolen adjust, but to expect a season like 2004 when he hit .314 with 34 home runs, 124 RBI and 109 runs scored in 500 at-bats seems little more than a pipe dream.

In 2008, there is little doubt that Rolen's glove may be his main asset. As for his bat, a .280 average with 12-15 home runs, 80 RBI and 75 runs scored in around 475 at-bats should be a reasonable expectation. Of course, health is the wild card in any scenario involving Rolen as clearly his ability to produce is tied to his ability to stay on the field.

He is a safe sleeper grab in the late rounds after the elite players are off of the board, but you have to remember that he carries the baggage of a surgically repaired shoulder and a history of strained relationships with his managers. Just ask former Philadelphia Phillies manager Larry Bowa.

The Arrival of Goliath

Glaus joins his fourth team in 10 injury-filled seasons. Last year, the 6-foot-5, 240-pound mammoth hit .262 with 20 home runs, 62 RBI, 60 runs scored and a .839 OPS in 385 at-bats. But, eventually the foot, knee and leg issues that have constantly hobbled the slugger caught up to him. He was placed on the 60-day disabled list Sept. 14 due to a left foot injury that required surgery.

In Glaus, the Cardinals inherit a player that participated in just 149 games combined throughout the 2003 and 2004 campaigns, has hit 40-plus home runs twice in his career and has never hit above .284. Although, playing on the friendly grass of new Busch Stadium should be a relief for the UCLA alum.

Glaus played in 149 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks during the 2005 season, so his familiarity with the National League should not be an issue. That year, Glaus hit .258 with 37 home runs, 97 RBI and 78 runs scored in 538 at-bats.

If Glaus' performance in old Busch Stadium was any indication of what he might do in a more permanent St. Louis stay, the Cardinals are going to be very happy. In 16 career at-bats there, Glaus hit .563 with nine hits, one home run and four RBI.

In 2008, Glaus should continue to hit for power and most likely will provide the Cardinals with the extra pop that they thought Rolen would supply more consistently after his fantastic 2006 season. But as a fantasy owner, you must take into consideration the vast array of ailments that have derailed him time and time again.

Although he may never approach the 40-plus home run plateau that he did in 2000 and 2001, he should provide a stopgap for power-starved owners looking for an extra push in the power categories. Consider Glaus an injury-risk sleeper that should only be considered once the top-10 third basemen are off the board.

Fantasy Outlook

When you sit down and analyze this deal, it makes sense at each end of the spectrum. Both guys should benefit slightly by donning new laundry and likely will provide fantasy owners with some decent production after the top third basemen have found homes elsewhere. Both men should be drafted in the late rounds of mixed leagues and are potential high-risk, high-reward picks in AL-only and NL-only formats.



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Author Bio

Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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