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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 20

January 15, 2008 @ 13:24:50

By Matthew Wilson and Herija C. Green
Edited by Herija C. Green and Cory J. Bonini

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players who aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterbacks - Weak Plays

Eli Manning, New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Manning	4	177.5	2.00	0.75	3.8	0.00
Packers vs. Pos.	3	180.3	1.00	0.67	-0.3	0.00

Manning has played error-free football in helping the G-Men advance to the NFC Championship Game, tossing four touchdowns against zero picks in wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys. However, his yardage totals have been modest even in victory (348 combined), and Green Bay's secondary figures to be a much tougher test than the previous weeks. When these two teams met back in Week 2, Manning threw for 211 yards and a touchdown to go along with an interception, though both teams are significantly different now than they were at that time. In fairness, Manning was coming off a shoulder injury and was iffy to play.

Green Bay's defense was masterful in their Divisional Round win over the Seattle Seahawks, holding Seattle's high-powered offense to just 200 net yards and holding quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to 194 yards passing on the day. The Packers have shown they can pressure the passer with their front four. The emergence of safety Atari Bigby to go along with established cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Al Harris has given the Packers a formidable pass defense. Manning ranks fourth out of the four remaining starting quarterbacks for this Sunday.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Grant	3	119.3	1.67	1.00	5.0	0.00
Giants vs. Pos.	4	91.5	1.25	5.50	54.0	0.00

Grant's playoff career couldn't have started off more poorly as he fumbled on two of his first three touches, both of which led to Seattle touchdowns and staked the Seahawks to a 14-0 lead. From there the first-year back wouldn't be denied as he ran for 201 yards and three touchdowns to etch his name into the annals of Packers lore. Grant finished the 2007 season strong and has continued to roll into the playoffs. Plus, he has the added motivation of playing against the team that traded him before the start of the season.

New York clearly had a lot of difficulty containing Cowboys running back Marion Barber III last Sunday as he ran for 129 yards and a touchdown, though most of the damage came in the first half. Overall they have been decent at limiting rushing yardage, but total yardage and total touchdowns are a different story. Add to that some expected cold weather that could put increased focus on the ground game, and you can see why Grant is a highly rated running back for this weekend.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Chambers	4	4.00	77.0	0.75
Patriots vs. Pos.	3	10.67	125.0	1.67

Injuries to running back LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) and tight end Antonio Gates (toe) could thrust Chambers into the spotlight more than usual in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. The midseason acquisition from the Miami Dolphins has been on a roll during the playoffs, totaling 188 yards and catching a touchdown pass in each round.

Despite 17 consecutive victories, the Pats have shown themselves to be vulnerable in the secondary, allowing Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback David Garrard to throw for 278 yards and a pair of touchdowns last Saturday night. Overall, opposing receivers have amassed five touchdowns against New England in the last three games, which bodes well for Chambers as a high-end No. 1 receiver this week.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Amani Toomer, New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Toomer	4	5.00	73.5	0.75
Packers vs. Pos.	3	11.33	129.3	0.67

Toomer is having an outstanding postseason, scoring his second and third touchdowns of the playoffs in last week's upset win over Dallas. For the day, the veteran finished 80 yards on four catches to lead the team in both categories. With receiver Plaxico Burress (ankle) looking like he is really struggling (five catches, 43 yards combined in two playoff games) with his bad ankle, Toomer has become New York's top fantasy option at receiver.

Green Bay has excelled most of the 2007 season at shutting down opposing receivers, and Toomer will almost certainly draw either Harris or Woodson, both of whom are playing at a Pro Bowl level. The Packers have also done a nice job of pressuring the quarterback, which could limit the amount of time Manning has to find open receivers. They're by no means an airtight defense, but Toomer could be in for a less productive day than what he has experienced during the first two rounds.

Tight Ends - Strong Plays

Benjamin Watson, New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Watson	2	3.00	25.0	1.00
Chargers vs. Pos.	4	6.50	79.8	0.25

There is no question that New England's super-productive wide receiver corps has dramatically cut into Watson's looks and fantasy production this season. In 13 games played (12 regular season, one playoff), he has averaged just 2.92 receptions for 31 yards per outing. However, Watson's 0.62 touchdowns scored per contest proves that he still has some decent fantasy value as a red-zone threat. Facing a San Diego defense that has had trouble containing enemy tight ends since Week 16, we think Watson is a nice No. 1 tight end option. During the last month (two games played), Watson has received 4.5 looks per game (4.81 percent) and 1.5 looks per outing inside the red zone (9.64 percent).

Although the San Diego defense has played very well overall in recent weeks - it's amazing how much this unit has improved after watching it struggle during the first half of the regular season - the Chargers have still yielded per-game reception and receiving yardage numbers to opposing tight ends that rank in the bottom-five of the league during the last four weeks. San Diego gave up six catches for 95 yards and one touchdown reception to Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark this past Sunday, which is another reason why we like Watson's chances to have a productive game. In case you're wondering, Watson caught five balls for 49 yards and one touchdown when he faced the Chargers back in Week 2.

Tight Ends - Weak Plays

Kevin Boss, New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Boss	4	1.75	20.8	0.25
Packers vs. Pos.	3	2.00	11.0	0.33

We hope you followed our advice last week and decided to pass on Boss, who caught just one ball for 19 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. After having a coming-out party of sorts against the Patriots in Week 17 (four receptions for 50 yards and one touchdown), the rookie from Western Oregon has become a forgotten man in the Giants passing attack - particularly because the team has used him more frequently as a blocker. Back in Week 3, Boss' teammate, tight end Jeremy Shockey (leg - Injured Reserve) caught five passes for 60 yards and zero touchdowns against the Packers, but we don't think Boss will even come close to duplicating Shockey's numbers on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. During the last month, Boss has been targeted an average of 2.5 times per game (4.67 percent) and targeted an average of 0.5 times per outing inside the red zone.

The Green Bay defense struggled immensely against opposing tight ends during the first half of the regular season but has played much better against the position in recent weeks. Since Week 16 (three games played), the Packers have surrendered just one touchdown to an enemy tight end while yielding extremely stingy per-game reception and receiving yardage numbers to the position. Consider Boss a marginal No. 1 tight end based primarily on scarcity for Sunday.

Place Kickers - Weak Plays

Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Crosby	3	0.67	0.67	3.67	3.67	5.7
Giants vs. Pos.	4	1.00	1.00	2.50	2.50	5.5

It's not easy to hop off the Crosby bandwagon - he did lead the entire league in scoring with 141 points during the regular season - but his matchup against the Giants does not look promising. As strange as it may sound, kicking for a prolific offense sometimes can have its drawbacks. Crosby, during the last four weeks (three games played), has attempted way more extra points than field goals, which has obviously lowered his actual kicking points scored per game average.

After yielding eight actual kicking points to the Patriots in Week 17, the Giants have given up just 3.5 actual kicking points per game in two playoff contests. Back in Week 3, Crosby tallied five actual kicking points against New York (five successful extra point tries), and it would not surprise us if he again failed to top the double-digit scoring mark in this rematch versus the G-Men. Despite the tough matchup, Crosby still rates as a No. 1 fantasy place kicker this Sunday.

Team Defenses - Strong Plays

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Chargers Def.	4	13.2	308.8	2.75	1.50	1.75
Patriots Off.	3	31.7	397.7	1.67	0.67	0.33

After watching the New England offense amass 38 points and 407 total yards against the San Diego defense back in Week 2, we suspect that labeling the Chargers a strong play as a No. 1 defense this week has raised some eyebrows. This matchup, believe it or not, is not as ridiculously one-sided as you may think it is. During that Week 2 blowout, San Diego still notched two sacks, two interceptions and one recovered fumble. You should also remember that the Bolts are playing much better than they did earlier in the regular season and will almost certainly have payback on their minds after New England abruptly derailed their Super Bowl quest last year. After watching the Chargers throttle the Tennessee Titans and frustrate the Indianapolis Colts in consecutive weeks, we think this unit, unless it's repeatedly put in bad situations due to offensive turnovers, should give the powerful New England offense a battle.

Even if you're just a fair-weather pro football fan, we doubt there is anything that we can tell you about the record-setting Patriots offense that you haven't already heard. During the regular season, New England usually found a way to roll up huge point and yardage totals while keeping sacks and turnovers to a minimum. It looks like that success, as expected, has carried over into the playoffs.

Author Bio

Matthew Wilson
Matt Wilson is a lifelong college and pro football fan who proudly touts the Michigan Wolverines and the Chicago Bears as his two favorite teams. Matt discovered fantasy football in 1999 and has been addicted to it ever since. His professional background includes a four-year stint as a news reporter for a Chicago-area radio station. Matt was sports director for his college television station at Northern Illinois. Seeking a new challenge, Matt joined KFFL in 2004.