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Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

New England Patriots Week 19 Fantasy Analysis

January 11, 2008 @ 11:19:22

By Tim Piotrowski
Edited by Herija C. Green

New England Patriots Fantasy Matchups - Week 19

Opponent: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Patriots (16-0) will be looking to start their journey to Arizona and Super Bowl XLII when they host the Jaguars (12-5) in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs. The last time the Patriots were on the field, they completed only the fourth perfect regular season in NFL history, beating the New York Giants, 38-35. They had a first-round bye and did not play last weekend. The Jaguars on the other hand, had to go on the road for a Wild Card game and play the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jaguars squandered an 18-point lead in the second half, but they were able to kick a game-winning field goal to advance to the second round. The last time these two teams played each other was in 2006, and the Patriots won that game, 24-21. This game will feature two quarterbacks who were in the top three in passer rating during the regular season.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Tom Brady	3	21	34	237.0	1.67	1.00	5.3	0.00	X

Brady finished his regular season with yet another tremendous game. He went 32-for-42 passing for 356 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Giants. The University of Michigan alumnus threw for more than 300 yards eight times during the season and at least two touchdowns in 14 of 16 games. During his week off, the 30-year-old was named the Associated Press Offensive Player of the Year as well as the Most Valuable Player. This week, Brady is a terrific No. 1 quarterback option for fantasy owners.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Jaguars	4	17	31	185.0	1.75	1.75	6.0	0.00

The Jaguars did a good job handling Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger during their playoff game, particularly in the first half. He finished the day throwing for 337 and two touchdowns, but they sacked him six times and added three interceptions. The defense has given up an average of 1.75 touchdowns per game over the last three games, but they have also averaged 1.75 interceptions per game over the same span.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Laurence Maroney	3	20.00 (31.14)	3.00 (34.54)	1.00	102.0	1.33	0.00	0.0	0.00	X
Kevin Faulk	3	8.33 (12.98)	0.67 (7.67)	0.00	15.7	0.00	4.00	30.7	0.00	N/A

Maroney was effective at finding the end zone during the team's Week 17 game. He rushed for just 46 yards on 19 carries in the game against New York, but his two touchdowns were a welcome sight for fantasy owners. The former first-round draft choice has scored four touchdowns in his last three games. Prior to their Week 17 game, the 22-year-old had rushed for more than 100 yards in his previous two games. Maroney is a top running back candidate for fantasy owners and a strong play this week.

Faulk did not find much success on the ground two weeks ago but did make an impact elsewhere. He rushed for negative-two yards on two carries in the game but did catch eight passes for 64 yards. The nine-year veteran only scored one total touchdown during the regular season but was a big part of the Patriots offense. Faulk is a No. 2 or No. 3 option for owners, and he is a strong play this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Jaguars	4	23.8	103.8	1.25	3.50	23.2	0.00

The Jaguars held Steelers running back Najeh Davenport to only 25 yards last week, but he did score two touchdowns during the game. The defense has given up five touchdowns and two 100-yard rushers over their last four games.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Randy Moss	3	13.00 (20.24)	3.67 (42.21)	0.67	5.33	76.3	1.33	N/A
Wes Welker	3	8.00 (12.46)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	6.33	67.0	0.00	N/A
Jabar Gaffney	3	4.33 (6.75)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	2.33	30.0	0.33	N/A
Donte' Stallworth	3	3.33 (5.19)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	1.67	19.0	0.00	N/A

Moss played another great game against the Giants two weeks ago. He caught six passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns in the game. The draft-day acquisition caught at least two touchdowns eight times during the regular season and caught four touchdowns over the last three games. He has been targeted an average of 13 times per game over that same span. This week, Moss is our top wide receiver option for fantasy owners.

Welker finished a very impressive regular season with a strong showing against the Giants, catching 11 passes for 122 yards. The Texas Tech alumnus finished the season tied for the league lead in receptions with 112, catching at least three passes in every game he played in this season. Welker is a fine No. 2 wide receiver for fantasy owners this week.

After being productive over the last few weeks of the season, Gaffney did not catch a pass during the team's Week 17 game. However, the former second-round draft choice caught four touchdowns during the final six games. Gaffney can be used as a low-end No. 3 wide receiver option, but if an owner has a receiver with a better matchup, he could be left on the bench.

Stallworth helped the Patriots in the last game they played with three catches for 32 yards in the game. Like Gaffney, Stallworth is a marginal No. 3 wide receiver option, but he could also be benched this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Jaguars	4	10.00	125.5	0.75

Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward caught 10 passes for 135 yards against the Jaguars defense last week. Prior to the playoff game, the defense had not allowed a 100-yard receiver since Indianapolis Colts wideout Reggie Wayne in Week 13. They have given up an average of 10 receptions per game to the position over the last four games.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Benjamin Watson	1	6.00 (3.11)	1.00 (3.84)	0.00	4.00	38.0	0.00	N/A

Watson returned to action in Week 17 after missing the previous two games because of an ankle injury. He caught four passes for 38 yards in the game. The 27-year old caught only one touchdown in the last seven games he has played. This week, Watson is a solid No. 1 tight end option for fantasy owners. He is also a strong play against Jacksonville.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Jaguars	4	3.75	36.2	1.00

The defense struggled to stop Steelers tight end Heath Miller last week. Miller caught eight passes for 85 yards and one touchdown during the game. The Jaguars have given up an average of one touchdown per game to tight ends over the last four games.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Stephen Gostkowski	3	1.67	1.67	3.00	3.00	8.0

Gostkowski had plenty of opportunities to score during the team's regular season finale. He made all three of his field goal attempts during the game as well as all three of his extra point attempts. The 23-year-old finished the season third in the league in scoring with 137 points, trailing only Green Bay Packers place kicker Mason Crosby (141) and Moss (138). Gostkowski is a solid No. 1 place kicking option for owners this week, though he is a weak play against the Jaguars.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Jaguars	4	0.50	0.50	2.50	2.50	4.0

The Jaguars defense has not given opposing place kickers many opportunities to score over the past few weeks. The defense is only giving up an average of 0.50 field goals attempted over the last four games as well as four total kicking points per game over the same span.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Patriots	3	13.3	264.3	4.33	0.67	0.33

The Patriots defense did have some struggles against the Giants passing game in Week 17. They allowed Giants quarterback Eli Manning to throw for 251 yards and four touchdowns during the game. They have recorded an average of 4.33 sacks per game over the last three games. The Patriots are an elite No. 1 defense option for fantasy owners and a strong play this week against Jacksonville.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Jaguars	4	32.8	369.5	2.00	1.00	0.50

The Jaguars offense has been pretty balanced during the season. Quarterback David Garrard was very impressive, throwing only three interceptions during the season versus 18 touchdowns. He did struggle some during the team's playoff game, throwing two interceptions and only completing nine passes. The Jaguars rely on their two-headed monster in the backfield. Running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 1,970 yards during the season, which ranked them second in the league in running back combinations. The offensive line has kept Garrard relatively safe, only giving up an average of two sacks per game over their last four games.