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Green Bay Packers Week 19 Fantasy Analysis

January 11, 2008 @ 11:16:11

By Jason Hoffmann
Edited by Herija C. Green

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Matchups - NFC Divisional Playoff Game

Opponent: vs. Seattle Seahawks

In the opening game of the Divisional Playoff round, the Packers (13-3) play host to the Seahawks (11-6) at Lambeau Field. The Seahawks coughed up a 13-point lead against the Washington Redskins (9-8) during last week's Wild Card matchup, but Seattle still pulled out a 35-14 win by scoring the game's final 22 points. As for the Packers, they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game, with some players getting three weeks of rest. Since their playoff positioning was set in stone, Green Bay chose not to play several key regulars in their finale. Yet, Green Bay still pounded the Detroit Lions (7-9) by a 34-13 score with their makeshift crew taking the field. Injuries should not be a major factor on Green Bay's side, so all of the Packers' key fantasy performers should be at full strength heading into the game.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Brett Favre	3	15	24	159.7	1.33	1.33	6.0	0.00	-

Favre's numbers over his last three games don't look impressive, but in that time he saw only a quarter of action in Week 17 and battled treacherous weather conditions the week before. Overall, Favre's 2007 season was a pleasant surprise to fantasy owners. He finished fourth in the NFL in passing yards and tied for sixth in touchdown passes while averaging less than one interception per game. Favre is a strong play this week, but he also has to face an aggressive Seahawks pass rush in another game where weather could play a factor. As a result, Favre is one of the lower-ranked quarterbacks in fantasy terms.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Seahawks	4	20	34	231.0	1.75	0.50	10.5	0.00

Seattle's defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns against the Redskins last week, but they represented the only two interceptions they had in the last month. They allowed 231 yards passing and almost two touchdown passes per contest in their last four games while averaging 1.75 sacks per outing.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Ryan Grant	3	14.33 (25.87)	2.67 (30.67)	1.00	70.7	1.00	1.00	4.7	0.00	N/A
Brandon Jackson	3	10.00 (18.05)	1.00 (11.50)	0.00	46.0	0.00	1.00	11.7	0.00	N/A
Vernand Morency	3	5.00 (9.02)	0.67 (7.67)	0.00	5.0	0.00	2.33	19.3	0.00	N/A

Grant (stinger) had 57 yards rushing on six carries in Week 17, and he scored his eighth rushing touchdown of the season on a 27-yard scamper in the first quarter. Grant failed in his quest for 1,000 yards rushing on the year, though, because he left the game early after suffering a stinger. He could have returned to the game if needed, but the Packers opted to hold him out so that he'd be healthy for the playoffs. Look for Grant to reassume his usual workload this week. He is a solid play as a No. 1 running back this week even though he doesn't have a great matchup against the Seahawks defense.

Jackson was the Packers' primary back after Grant left the Lions game, and he responded with the best game of his rookie campaign. Jackson ran for 113 yards on 20 carries and added two receptions for 22 yards. However, Jackson is unlikely to see more than a handful of snaps against Seattle if Grant stays on the field. Consider Jackson only a No. 3 option at running back this week.

Since Jackson saw the bulk of the duty in Week 17 once Grant left, Morency was once again a fantasy afterthought. He finished the game with 35 total yards, gaining 20 yards on two receptions and 15 on five carries. Use Morency as a No. 3 running back only if you don't have any other options; otherwise, leave him on your bench.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Seahawks	4	26.2	93.8	0.50	4.00	33.8	0.00

The Seahawks defense has been very strong against the run over the past four weeks, allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game while limiting opposing running backs to only 3.6 yards per carry. However, their aggressive nature does leave them susceptible to the occasional big run, something Grant has done on more than one occasion over the last two months.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Greg Jennings	2	5.50 (6.62)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	3.50	54.0	0.50	X
Donald Driver	2	7.50 (9.02)	1.00 (7.67)	0.00	4.50	56.0	0.00	+
Koren Robinson	3	4.33 (7.82)	1.00 (11.50)	0.33	2.67	25.0	0.33	N/A
Ruvell Martin	3	2.67 (4.81)	0.33 (3.83)	0.00	1.00	18.7	0.33	N/A
James Jones	3	3.33 (6.02)	0.67 (7.67)	0.00	1.33	14.3	0.00	N/A
Shaun Bodiford	1	1.00 (0.60)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	1.00	13.0	0.00	N/A

Jennings (groin) was clearly the most valuable fantasy performer among the Packers' wide receivers. Despite sitting out three games with injuries, Jennings finished tied for fourth in the NFL with 12 touchdown receptions. Jennings sat out the Packers' finale after suffering an ankle injury the previous week, and he tweaked his groin in practice this week. Still, he is fully expected to start, and Jennings is a strong play as either a No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy receiver against Seattle.

Driver was also held out of the Lions game in an attempt to keep him healthy for the playoff run. Driver had a solid season, as he led the team with 82 receptions and 1,048 yards receiving, but he was a disappointment on the fantasy front because he finished with just two touchdown catches all year. Without the scoring potential, Driver is just a No. 2 or No. 3 receiving option this week despite being a strong play.

Robinson was the Packers' leading receiver against the Lions, as he finished with four receptions, 47 yards and his first touchdown reception since the 2005 season. Robinson is a strong play this week, but his targets should drop significantly with Jennings and Driver active. Robinson is no more than a No. 3 receiver for fantasy purposes and should be benched if you have better options at the position.

Martin was on the receiving end of only one pass in Week 17, but it was a 32-yard touchdown reception from backup quarterback Craig Nall. Martin finished the season with four touchdown receptions, second among all Packers' receivers, despite catching only 16 passes all season. Like Robinson, Martin is also a strong play against the Seahawks. But because of his all-or-nothing nature this season, Martin is either a No. 3 option or a bench play.

Jones had another sub-par fantasy showing in Week 17, as he was targeted four times in the game but finished with only two catches for 14 yards. Jones opened the season as the team's No. 3 receiver, but it looks like Robinson has now assumed those duties. With the targets dwindling week-by-week, Jones is a weak play and should be benched against Seattle.

Bodiford registered his first NFL reception last week with a 13-yard catch in the fourth quarter, but he's unlikely to even be active this weekend and should not be in your lineup.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Seahawks	4	12.25	140.0	1.25

The Seahawks haven't been great against opposing wide receivers in the last four weeks, so as a group the Packers' receiving corps should do well this week. But on an individual basis, fantasy owners shouldn't expect much from any Green Bay receivers. While Jennings and Driver may put up decent numbers, use the others at your own risk.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Donald Lee	2	3.50 (4.21)	0.50 (3.83)	0.50	1.00	3.0	0.50	N/A
Bubba Franks	2	2.50 (3.01)	1.00 (7.67)	0.50	2.00	21.0	0.50	-

Like Jennings and Driver, Lee was also held out of the Packers' finale. Lee set career-highs across the board with 48 receptions, 575 yards receiving and six touchdowns in 2007, and only Jennings had more touchdown catches on the team. Despite a quiet end to the season, Lee is a solid fantasy option this week and a strong play against Seattle.

Franks picked up where Lee left off in the Lions contest, grabbing three passes for 34 yards in the game. Franks also caught his third touchdown pass of the season, and he ranked fourth on the team in that category despite missing eight games with a knee injury. Even though he moves down to No. 2 on the depth charts this week, Franks is a strong play and a worthwhile fantasy starter.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Seahawks	4	4.00	57.2	0.50

Over the last four weeks, only five teams allowed more receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends than Seattle's defense. That could mean big things for Lee in the intermediate passing game, while Franks' impact could be felt more if/when the Packers get inside the red zone.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP Att/G	XP/G	Kick Pts/G
Mason Crosby	3	2.00	2.00	2.67	2.67	8.7

If you drafted Crosby or were able to grab him off waivers in the early weeks, you definitely got your money's worth. Crosby led all NFL players with 141 points on the year, which is a very impressive accomplishment for a rookie place kicker. Crosby ended the 2007 season with a bang by tallying 10 kicking points in Week 17, the seventh time this season that Crosby reached double figures for fantasy owners. The outlook for Crosby is just as promising this week, as he is a strong play against the Seahawks. Start Crosby with confidence.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP Att/G	XP/G	Kick Pts/G
Seahawks	4	1.25	1.75	2.00	2.00	5.8

Seattle allowed only 5.8 kicking points per game over the last four weeks, but in that time they didn't face an offense that matched the explosiveness of Green Bay's attack.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Packers	3	16.7	299.0	1.33	1.33	0.00

In general, the Packers defense performed fairly well in the team's final three games. It allowed less than 17 points per game while limiting opposing offenses to fewer than 300 total yards per contest. But it was a disappointment in fantasy terms because it averaged only 1.33 sacks and forced 1.33 turnovers per game in that span. Some of the fantasy woes may have been attributed to injuries, as key players like cornerback Charles Woodson (toe) and defensive tackle Ryan Pickett (groin) missed time. But as mentioned above, injuries aren't a major concern now because of the two-week layoff. The Packers defense has a solid matchup against the Seahawks offense and is a strong play as a No. 1 defense this week.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Seahawks	4	23.2	355.8	2.50	1.25	0.75

Seattle's offense ranked tied for 10th in the NFL in points scored and fifth in total yardage over the past four weeks, but that doesn't automatically mean the Packers defense will be a bad play this week. The Seahawks offense also allowed 2.5 sacks and committed two turnovers per game in their last four outings, and they posted big numbers in spite of a very lackluster rushing attack. Running back Shaun Alexander appears to be running on fumes, so the Packers defense should be able to focus primarily on stopping quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (quadriceps) and the passing attack. Since wintry weather could also wreak havoc on Seattle's aerial game, the Packers defense could be a solid fantasy play this week.

Author Bio

Jason Hoffmann

A lifelong Wisconsin resident, Jason Hoffmann has seen plenty of good (Green Bay Packers) and bad (Milwaukee Brewers) in sports. Armed with a statistics degree from UW-Madison, Hoffmann prides himself in finding important trends that cannot be seen by simply scanning box scores. Hoffmann has been involved in competitive fantasy baseball and basketball since 1999 and a KFFL contributor since 2004.