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Jacksonville Jaguars Week 19 Fantasy Analysis

January 11, 2008 @ 11:14:01

By Ilan Mochari
Edited by Herija C. Green

Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Matchups - Week 19

Opponent: at New England Patriots

Saturday night, the Jaguars (12-5) visit the Patriots (16-0) in an AFC Divisional Playoff game. The Jaguars are coming off a 31-29 road victory in the Wild Card round against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite scoring 31 points, the Jaguars hardly had a banner day on offense: Quarterback David Garrard completed just nine of his 21 passes for 140 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Running backs Fred Taylor (one rushing touchdown) and Maurice Jones-Drew (one rushing touchdown, one receiving touchdown) had solid fantasy days but were not effective rushing the ball: Taylor gained 48 yards on 16 carries, while Jones-Drew got 29 yards on eight carries (along with a 43-yard scoring reception).

On defense, the Jaguars wreaked some havoc (three interceptions, six sacks) but struggled to contain the Steelers' passing game as Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 337 yards and two touchdowns. The struggles of the Jaguars defense against the pass do not bode well for their matchup with the Patriots, who led the NFL this season averaging 295.7 passing yards per game. However, the Jaguars might be able to move the ball against the Patriots, both in the air and on the ground. When the Patriots last played, in Week 17, they gave up four touchdown passes to New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning. So while the Jaguars defense showed little against the Steelers to inspire confidence against the seldom-sacked (21 times), low-turnover (15 total) Patriots offense, the statistical evidence suggests that the Jaguars can amass plenty of points and yardage this Saturday night.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
David Garrard	3	12	24	178.7	2.00	1.33	28.3	0.33	X

Though Garrard passed poorly against Pittsburgh, he rushed five times for 58 yards - more yards than either Taylor or Jones-Drew. He also has a strong history against the Patriots. Last season, in Week 16, he completed 17 of 23 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. True, Garrard is coming off a poor game against Pittsburgh, but he is a strong play this week against a Patriots defense that allowed 1.67 touchdown passes per game in Weeks 15-18, including Manning's four-touchdown performance.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Patriots	3	22	37	202.7	1.67	0.67	8.7	0.00

While the Patriots intercepted 19 passes this season (tied for sixth in the league), they have not been ball hawks of late, with only two interceptions in their last three games. That augurs well for Garrard, who, despite throwing two picks last week, has been an extremely careful player all season: In his 12 games, he only threw three interceptions, compared to 18 touchdowns. Considering how efficiently Garrard played against the Patriots in last season's game, there's reason to believe he'll post solid numbers Saturday night.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Fred Taylor	3	10.67 (19.81)	1.67 (15.24)	0.00	102.0	1.00	0.33	0.7	0.00	N/A
Maurice Jones-Drew	3	11.67 (18.60)	2.33 (27.94)	0.33	47.3	0.67	4.00	56.3	0.33	++
Greg Jones	4	7.00 (12.13)	1.50 (15.24)	0.50	20.5	0.00	1.25	6.8	0.25	N/A
LaBrandon Toefield	1	8.00 (3.23)	1.00 (2.54)	1.00	15.0	0.00	1.00	4.0	0.00	N/A

Every Jaguars running back is a weak play because the Patriots have not allowed a rushing touchdown to an opposing running back since Week 13. Moreover, though both Taylor and Jones-Drew scored against the Steelers, neither cracked 50 yards rushing.

However, both Taylor and Jones-Drew are too good to be benched. Use them as No. 1 running backs this week, but temper your expectations. In last season's game - which Taylor missed with a hamstring injury - Jones-Drew rushed for 131 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, and he added 41 receiving yards on six catches. Since he should share time with Taylor this Saturday night, a repeat of such gaudy statistics is unlikely. Jones, meanwhile, does not play enough to warrant fantasy consideration as anything other than a No. 3 running back, while Toefield belongs on your bench. He was inactive for the Wild Card game against the Steelers and could very well be inactive against the Patriots.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Patriots	3	16.0	80.3	0.00	5.00	39.0	0.33

In addition to keeping opposing running backs out of the end zone, the Patriots held them to just 80.3 rushing yards per game in Weeks 15-18. In Week 17, Giants running back Brandon Jacobs gained 67 yards on 15 carries. However, Jacobs did score a receiving touchdown, as did Steelers running back Najeh Davenport in Week 14. So the Patriots do have a track record of allowing opposing running backs to score through the air. Considering that Jones-Drew scored a receiving touchdown last week, and that Jones might have had one if he had not drop a wide-open pass, it's possible that the Jaguars running backs will compile some impressive receiving statistics.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Ernest Wilford	4	4.50 (8.49)	1.00 (10.16)	0.25	3.00	35.2	0.75	N/A
Reggie Williams	4	3.50 (6.87)	0.75 (7.62)	0.25	2.25	28.0	0.75	N/A
Matt Jones	4	5.50 (8.90)	1.00 (10.16)	0.25	2.75	50.0	0.50	N/A
Dennis Northcutt	3	3.00 (4.85)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	2.00	38.7	0.33	N/A

All of the Jaguars receivers played poorly in Pittsburgh last week. Jones did not have a catch, while Wilford, Williams and Northcutt combined for five catches and 79 yards. Facing a Patriots defense that allowed a paltry 112.3 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts in Weeks 15-18, the Jaguars receivers are hardly entering a friendly situation. None of them is a bona fide No. 1 receiver this week, but the best choice is Wilford, who led the team in Weeks 15-18 by averaging three receptions per game and is a No. 1 or No. 2 option. Williams scored 10 touchdowns this season and is a solid No. 2 or No. 3 this week, though there's always the chance that he'll have a lousy fantasy day if he doesn't score. Meanwhile, both Jones, who played well (four catches, 69 yards, one touchdown) in last season's game against the Patriots, and Northcutt have upside as No. 3 receivers.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Patriots	3	11.33	112.3	1.00

Though the Patriots rank fifth in yards per game allowed to opposing wideouts in Weeks 15-18, they have allowed a generous 11.33 receptions per game to the position in that span, ranking 18th. So while none of the Jaguars receivers has notched a ton of receptions - Wilford led the team with 45 this season - the numbers indicate that Garrard should be able to get them the ball, collectively.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Marcedes Lewis	4	1.75 (4.85)	0.25 (2.54)	0.25	1.00	13.5	0.00	N/A
Richard Angulo	4	1.50 (2.83)	0.25 (2.54)	0.00	1.25	15.5	0.25	N/A

Lewis caught two passes for 16 yards against the Steelers, but in the previous two games he did not catch a pass. He is a weak play as a marginal No. 1 tight end this weekend, even though the Patriots surrendered 51.3 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends in Weeks 15-18.

Angulo did not catch a pass against the Steelers, but his reception and yardage numbers in Weeks 15-18 are actually better than Lewis'. He is still a backup who belongs on your bench.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Patriots	3	5.33	51.3	0.33

In Week 17, the Patriots allowed Giants tight end Kevin Boss to catch four passes for 50 yards and one touchdown. In Week 15, Jets tight end Chris Baker caught eight passes for 66 yards. So the potential exists for the Jaguars tight ends to do some damage.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Josh Scobee	4	0.50	0.75	4.25	4.50	5.8

Last week against the Steelers, Scobee made all four extra points and one of his two field goals. He missed wide-right from 46 yards out but connected from 25 yards out with 40 seconds left to seal the win for the Jaguars. He amassed seven kicker points - solid, but it doesn't mean you should use him this week. In fact, the Patriots only surrendered 3.3 points per game to opposing place kickers in Weeks 15-18. That makes Scobee a weak play as our lowest ranked kicker.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Patriots	3	0.33	0.67	2.33	2.33	3.3

Simply put, it's a bad idea to play any place kicker against the Patriots. The Patriots only allowed 0.33 field goals per game in Weeks 15-18, leading the league in that category.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Jaguars	4	23.0	265.5	4.00	1.75	0.50

The Jaguars averaged four sacks per game in Weeks 15-18, ranking second in the NFL. However, they might not be as successful when it comes to nabbing Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who was only sacked 21 times this season. The Jaguars also averaged 1.75 interceptions per game in Weeks 15-18, ranking third. Similarly, the Jaguars might not get as many chances against Brady, who only threw eight picks all season. While it's possible the Jaguars defense will create an interception or two, and a sack or two, it's doubtful they'll match their three-interception, six-sack performance of last week. They still rank as a decent No. 1 defense this week despite the tough matchup.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Patriots	3	26.0	351.7	1.67	1.00	0.33

It's no secret: The Patriots score a lot of points. Only in four of their 16 games did they fail to score 31 points. So even if the Jaguars defense gets some sacks and turnovers, it is doubtful that they will keep the Patriots from racking up some points. In Weeks 15-18, the Patriots slumped a bit, but they still scored plenty: Their 26.0 points per game during that span ranked fifth, while their 351.7 yards per game during that span ranked sixth. In short, the Jaguars defense figures to have its hands full, confronting a record-setting offense that scored more points this season than any other team in NFL history.